Status of the Dragon's naval arm in relation to it's enemies.
Summary
The DCA.
During the current conflict the DCA have suffered the highest casualties of any branch of the Combine's military services. Although the fleets of the Dragon have generally been very successful the sheer numbers of our enemies have through attrition reduced the navy of the Dragon to critical levels. The DCA can today muster 86 combat ships in various state of repair. Although this does not compare to unfavourably against the numbers of our foes in this case the numbers require closer examination.
DCA - fleet tonnage : 43 million tons
Light combatants - 66
Medium combatants - 12
Heavy combatants - 8
LCN - fleet tonnage : 68 million tons
Light combatants - 53
Medium combatants - 21
Heavy combatants - 11
FSNS - fleet tonnage : 69 million tons
Light combatants - 91
Medium combatants - 12
Heavy combatants - 17
TRN - fleet tonnage : 71 million tons
Light combatants - 47
Medium combatants - 19
Heavy combatants - 25
As shown by the list above the DCA have taken disproportionate casualties among it's heavier shiptypes leaving it with a very weak power projection ability and worse a limited ability to withstand heavy assaults. Despite valiant efforts to keep the enemies of the Combine at bay the lighter units remaining in the fleet simply can't hold a system against an attack by a determined battlefleet. Even innovative tactics like the interpenetrating jump can only do so much when the DCA is fighting the three most powerful fleets remaining in the Inner Sphere simultaneously. The best results in dealing with the advancing enemies have so far been massed ASF units supported by drop- and war-ships equipped with nuclear missiles.
LCN - threat analysis.
The Lyran fleet have been the target of massed strikes from both the DCA and FWLN in the opening stages of the war. The devastation of the Lyran yards early in the war have pushed the LCN firmly back on the defensive and it has shown little interest in changing this situation. A focused campaign against the LCN's support structure and logistics train have contributed greatly to our successes on the Lyran front and despite the current lull on the Lyran front raiding efforts should continue to prevent the LCN from building the logistic base it will require to shift to offensive operations.
While the Lyran fleet have suffered heavily in the war and is currently engaged against the FWL it is still a formidable opponent and we cannot count on the ineptness displayed at Skondia to be repeated this late in the war. Particularly troublesome is the raw power of the Lyran heavy fleet backed by it's very powerful cruiser force in comparison to our very limited heavy fleet elements. Should the LCN advance in force against us it will likely be necessary to trade ground for time and strike the enemy's supply chain rather than fighting pitched battles.
The LCN, while generally considered a very top heavy formation have also displayed an alarming skill at deep penetration raids and contrary to the opinions of many serving Admirals the LCN have some very fine weapons for raiding. The Mako Corvette in particular is a superb raider, and raider hunter. We are very fortunate that it's abilities have been mostly wasted as a screening vessel for the Lyran battlesquadrons.
Conclusion: The Lyran fleet is not an immediate threat, it does have the power to strike the Dragon a heavy blow but it will need to make preparations before making any serious move against the Combine, that should give the DCA warning enough to devise countermeasures. In a longer perspective the LCN is even less of a threat since the Lyran state no longer have the ability to support or rebuild it's fleet.
FSNS - threat analysis.
The Federated Suns have what is quite likely the most powerful warfleet in the Inner Sphere at this time. Centred on a core of heavy combatants more than twice the size of the DCA's total surviving number of heavy units and supported by a large number of lighter combatants. This force makes holding systems against assault, or even raiding the interior of the Suns, far more dangerous gambits than similar operations in the Commonwealth. It is most fortunate that the FSNS concentrated all it's available power on the frontlines and thus opened up it's interior for the raids on Delavan and Panpour in 95 and 96 or the power of the FSNS would likely be an insurmountable obstacle to the Dragon at this time.
Despite the power available to the Federated Suns in it's navy the Federated Suns have never been a maritime nation and the hard fought battles, particularly Cholame, seems to have cost the FSNS it's entire naval minded leadership. Ever since then this formidable weapon have spent most of it's time during our tactical retreat from exposed worlds in the Federated Suns to convoy army units and supplies rather than seeking out and engaging our smaller fleet units and thus secure space superiority in the operations area. There have been a recent resurgence of more naval minded operations such as the attack on the Fukuroi yards and the Texlos operation in the Capellan Confederation, an alarming trend since the FSNS could well deploy a force as large as the entire DCA to it's Draconis frontline and still have an acceptable security on it's remaining frontiers.
However the FSNS is not a monolithic juggernaut about to crush it's foes. The Capellan Confederation is, according to available data, able to field a force almost as powerful as the mighty FSNS. Even with the poor performance of the CCN so far in the war the sheer numbers require a significant force to be deployed on the Capellan border even if that front is less active. Also the desperate concentration of all available combatants to contain our offensive left much of the FS interior open to intense raiding, this has strongly contributed to the FSNS having the smallest fleet train of any of our enemies making it hard for the FSNS to project the power it's combat arm should be capable of.
Conclusion: The Yellow bird has clearly incarnated in the Federated Suns at this time. It is fortunate that the FSNS support structure was shattered earlier in the war or the strategic situation would be much worse. The main limiting factor of the Davion advance at this time is the supply situation for the army and navy units participating in the current offensive. Indeed the reduction of the role of the FSNS to army escort duty have further added to the fleet's supply problems since army requirements often take precedence over navy preferences. It is that logistic chain that the DCA should target with heavy raids rather than exposing the few remaining core units to destruction by trying to fight the superior power of the FSNS in pitched battles. Unless opportunities present themselves to defeat the enemy in detail large engagements should be avoided. The advance of the enemy also gives us the opportunity to inflict significant attritional losses on the FSNS with more expendable assets thus reducing it's superior numbers until such a time that it can be engaged more directly.
TRN - threat analysis.
The Terran Republic fields the smallest fleet of our immediate neighbours, in numbers of warships. It is however the largest hostile fleet in terms of tonnage, even beating the LCN in average tonnage / ship. The TRN fields three times more heavy combatants than the DCA and while the lighter forces of the TRN looks small enough in numbers to compensate for this discrepancy it is important to remember that the TR is a much smaller nation with fewer systems to patrol and defend to begin with.
Several TRN classes are Star League designs optimized for very extended operations and tend to have less combat power / ton than most house designs. While this reduces the TRN fighting power somewhat it also gives the TRN an endurance few other fleets can match. The raw numbers however is not the main problem in dealing with the TRN but rather it is the numerous advantages geography and technology gives our Terran enemy.
1: Hyperpulse technology
2: Lithium Fusion Batteries
3: Size of the TR
4: Terran system
5: Rim protectorates
Looking at each of these points in turn and it will be quite obvious that the TR have the potential to become the Yellow bird's main roost in the future.
Hyperpulse technology - although all nations have access to the Star League HPG network through ComStar the TRN also have access to Star League ships equipped with these same means of interstellar communication allowing the TRN ships to cut hours of communications lag. This gives them a massive edge in rapid reaction and recognisance that is impossible to defeat without acquiring similar abilities. Indeed when it comes to worlds with no functioning ComStar HPG an attacking force is totally cut of from all communication once it jumps into the target system.
Lithium Fusion Batteries - beyond the obvious use in scouting a system and avoid jump point ambushes this system gives the TRN a strategic mobility that is unmatched by any navy in the Inner Sphere. Combined with the HPG this makes any raiding operation in a Terran Republic system likely to evolve into a full scale battle as reinforcements can be brought in from out to 60 LY away. It does however also allow for diversionary tactics on a scale not normally available in space warfare, like during the Keid raid. Unlike HPGs, that can't be matched, the technology to build LFBs is available. Unfortunately the cost and destruction of the current war have made LFBs outside the TRN very rare and not entirely perfected as the loss of the Davion battleship Excalibur demonstrated. XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX Also the strategic mobility of a LFB ship should not be underestimated, even if the DCA knew in advance where a raider was headed no warships deployed more than half the number of jumps from the objective relative to a LFB equipped raider would be able to respond to the attack in time.
Size of the Terran Republic - the compact cluster of highly developed worlds gives the Terran Republic a very good defensive position where there are few obvious weak spots. The ComStar HPG net is working on most worlds and raids can draw reaction forces from as far away as the FWL front. The short distances in the Terran Republic makes even ships without HPG and LFB quite able to respond to incursions.
Terran system - this system alone holds more yard facilities and armament factories than any Military district in the Combine. The fact that so much of the Terran Republic's vital assets are concentrated in a single system is both a blessing and a curse for the Republic. It allows a staggering concentration of military power, including the remnants of the Reagan SDS, to protect those assets that no other nation can match; for we all have our assets scattered across many worlds. But it also means that the Terran Republic is exposed like no other nation to a decapitating strike. Take out Terra and the Republic dies! The Dragon was alone in having the foresight to try to do this but the strike failed and despite causing serious damage the Terran system continues to be a massive fortified factory and as long as the factories there are fed rawmaterials they will continue to forge the weaponry that keeps the Dragon from it's ancestral home.
Rim protectorates - this remnant of the old Rim Republic remains as a Terran protectorate. The value of these worlds are marginal but the TR still struggles to keep their claim on them and the Lyran Commonwealth have so far not contested that claim. The reason for the Terran Republic's interest in the region is naturally access to rawmaterials and resources that have long ago been depleted on the core worlds. Denying the Terran Republic these assets should be a relatively simple operation for the DCA since the TRN have a very limited presence in the protectorate. It is vital that the Terran Republic is not allowed to profit from the resources on the Rim as long as it's manufacturing potential still remains.
Conclusion: Of all our enemies the Terran Republic is the one that needs to be dealt with most carefully. It can grow to the greatest foe the Dragon will ever face or it can wither away and fade like the morning mists. It is unfortunate that the TR have managed to maintain cordial relations with it's other three neighbours, only the Mariks have joined our war against the Terrans. While the current state of the DCA and DCMS makes an overt military solution to the Terran Republic problem unlikely covert means should be examined, particulary in regards to opening more fronts against the Republic as well as sabotage against facilities that the arms of the Dragon cant reach at this time.
A final factor when considering out Terran enemy from a naval perspective is that the TRN is by far the best maintained fleet in the Inner Sphere making it's fighting strength even more impressive.
Recommendations: The DCA is at this time not able to destroy the naval forces the coalition of our enemies can raise against us and thus secure space superiority for the DCMS. Current operations should focus on resolving the key issues facing the Dragon on each of the three fronts.
Lyran Commonwealth front: Limited raiding to keep the LCN busy and support DCMS operations, particular efforts should be made on scouting changes in LCN deployments that could indicate a more active operational pace.
Federated Suns front: Heavy raiding against the supply chain supporting the AFFS advance combined with maintaining a presence in the combat zone to deny the enemy space supremacy in contested systems.
Terran Republic front: Defensive efforts only to support the DCMS, the cost of raiding the TR will likely make such raids to expensive to be justified, but should opportunities present themselves to hit the TR naval support and construction facilities they must be exploited fully.
ISF Naval Analysis team: XXXXXXXXXXX
Date: 2800-01-16
« Last Edit: December 20, 2008, 07:22:51 PM by CJvR » Report to moderator 213.112.69.136
Hessian
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2008, 07:30:39 PM » Quote
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Impressive work CJvR!
Ciao
Hessian
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Takiro
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2008, 09:16:05 PM » Quote
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A very very impressive analysis of TRO2800 in relation to the DCA. Nice job!
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2008, 08:01:48 AM » Quote
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Curious question:
Will you come up with similar status analyses for the other Successor States(including the Terran Republic) CJvR?
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Hessian
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2008, 06:13:07 PM » Quote Modify Remove
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It was some thoughts I had about the strategic situation of the DCA, it became worse for them the longer I looked at it. But things could have been even worse still. Togura, as long as it is running, will provide the DCA with some much needed replacements.
Had the Delavan and Panpour raids failed the FSNS would likely have added some 6 million ton of warships by now going on the previous construction rate ( 2 BC, 1 FF, 4-5 DD, 2-3Crv ). Effectively a whole new taskforce. The all overriding military objective of the Dragon at this time is to halt the Davion advance and in this objective they have some aid, though not from their co-beligerents on Sian and Atreus who are more intrested in fighting eachother.
The LCN, currently enjoying a comfortable lull in the fighting could cause the DCA disasterous problems if they adopted a more aggressive posture on the Combine frontier and joined the TR and FS opening up a third axis of attack the Dragon might just crack under the strain. The DC is hardly a stabil nation other than when the ISF points it's guns at the malcontents. There are the Arkab worlds that could break lose and the old Rasalhague Principalities that could revolt if the military power of Luthien cracks.
Im not sure if I will do reports on more fleets, they are not in quite as much intresting trouble as the DCA although the FWL might end up there due to their fued with the CC.
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2008, 08:13:42 AM » Quote Modify Remove
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Just a meassure of the Sol system's value to the TR as mentioned in the DCA status report...
(in products rather than productivity or product lines which may vary more wildly)
Code:
LBM MBM HBM ABM ASF DS Veh
TR Total: 19 19 26 23 22 28 56
Sol System: 6 5 8 4 6 12 27
Sol % 32 26 31 17 27 42 48
So at the start of the storm one system provided around 1/3 of the TR weaponry, after the opening that figure will only have increased as outlying factories are either lost or bombed. By 2800 I would suspect Sol to provide over half the weaponry of the republic.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2008, 08:20:45 AM by CJvR » Report to moderator 134.128.92.64
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2008, 09:35:28 PM » Quote
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I could work on the FWL as I already did a similar analysis but focusing on all its enemies.
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2008, 11:18:46 PM » Quote
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Nice work CJvR, i for one would like to see the FWL report.
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Re: DCA status.
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2008, 06:53:01 PM » Quote Modify Remove
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Quote from: Takiro
Down to 15 to 20 percent I figure in fleet strength. That is a bad decade and a half.
Well the loss % varies a bit but...
CCN: Got off relatively light...
Light - 85.9% casualties
Cruis - 89.9% casualties
Heav - 73.5% casualties
Supp - 80.4% casualties
total - 83.7% casualties
BV remaining: 12,13 million
Tonnage: 76.2 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 10
BV < 100 - 50
BV < 150 - 19
BV < 200 - 13
BV > 200 - 14
DCA: Took a "heavy" beating...
Light - 85.0% casualties (91.8% of original force)
Cruis - 86.7% casualties
Heav - 92.9% casualties
Supp - 85.3% casualties
total - 86.4% casualties
BV remaining: 10,13 million
Tonnage: 49.0 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 16
BV < 100 - 35
BV < 150 - 27
BV < 200 - 6
BV > 200 - 13
FSNS: Came through "best" of the houses...
Light - 81.7% casualties
Cruis - 84.8% casualties
Heav - 84.0% casualties
Supp - 87.8% casualties
total - 83.2% casualties
BV remaining: 16,82 million
Tonnage: 74.8 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 22
BV < 100 - 49
BV < 150 - 30
BV < 200 - 4
BV > 200 - 29
FWLN: Fairly even disaster...
Light - 86.2% casualties (96.4% of original force)
Cruis - 86.0% casualties
Heav - 86.5% casualties
Supp - 85.6% casualties
total - 86.1% casualties
BV remaining: 12,66 million
Tonnage: 63.0 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 26
BV < 100 - 37
BV < 150 - 15
BV < 200 - 15
BV > 200 - 21
LCN: It's very powerful cruisers saves the LCN...
Light - 86.5% casualties
Cruis - 75.0% casualties
Heav - 89.1% casualties
Supp - 87.8% casualties
total - 85.8% casualties
BV remaining: 16,49 million
Tonnage: 76.1 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 10
BV < 100 - 27
BV < 150 - 34
BV < 200 - 3
BV > 200 - 49
TRN: Saved by it's fortified yard systems...
Light - 81.3% casualties (90.1% of original force)
Cruis - 68.3% casualties (117% of original force)
Heav - 54.2% casualties (75% of original force)
Supp - 80.0% casualties
total - 76.6% casualties
BV remaining: 12,13 million
Tonnage: 79.9 MT
#Ships in BV brackets...
BV < 50 - 15
BV < 100 - 41
BV < 150 - 22
BV < 200 - 10
BV > 200 - 13
While the TRN is big on tonnage it really needs to use some of those idle yards to give it's old SL designs a bit more bite. Unlike the SLN the TRN does not have to support divisions on year long deployment a dozen jumps from civilization in the periphery. On the + side though endurance + LFB will make TRN ships hellish raiders, also they will be better able to support the TR reconqista and operate at the end of a shaky supply line.
