OBT Forum
General BattleTech => Alternate Universe => Age of Chaos => Topic started by: Knightmare on February 24, 2012, 04:31:51 PM
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With the collapse of the Free Worlds League we get to see close collections of micro-states and independent worlds existing as neighbors next to each other and larger Great Houses. Somehow these states and worlds remain as is in the face of their larger neighbors.
What are your thoughts? Do states like these stand a chance at long term survival? How do you think they survive at all? Anything else you'd like to share?
Thanks in advance!
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Work off the well founded BT Piranah Principle.
Much as they might want to, the larger states can't devote resources to taking over these smaller states, for when they try, they must weaken thier defences against the other large powers, who would then sweep in the wreck the joint.
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Thanks Black!
Other thoughts?
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Also the micros states still around in the 3120s are those that survived getting gobbled in the early post-Jihad years. Quite a number of the nascent states or existing provinces wound up getting overrun following the FWL break up.
Beyond that, I suspect some of the smaller planets were 'areas of influence' by larger states that couldn't move in without having to fight the states on the other side, but wouldn't let anyone else move in either. Given the war-weariness of the post-jihad years, with many states still rebuilding their forces, few states would want to risk a serious conflict.
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When your own house is in disorder, you tend to not think too much about stealing from your neighbor. To put it another way, states tend to not get aggressive against their neighbors when they're facing civil war at home. The Jihad messed up the Capellans and Lyrans sufficiently that they were too busy trying to reestablish order in their own realms to spend time trying to pick up loose pieces from the former FWL chessboard. The Magistry had its own issues, as well.
Then, too, the Jihad did a decent number on the industrial planets of the FWL, raising serious questions as to whether the juice to be gained from taking former FWL worlds would be worth the effort of squeezing them. Given how few pro-Capellan rebellions there were in the worlds the FWL took from the CapConnies over the course of the succession wars (unlike in the Capellan March), it would seem that on that flank, at least, the natives didn't really relish the idea of returning to the control of the Liaos, which would have served to make it even more difficult to pick off a few worlds.
No, all in all, the strategic imperative for anyone in a position to grab worlds in the former FWL had too many other problems to deal with at the time, much like no one really snatched at many worlds in the Chaos March; even Sun Tzu Liao didn't try to sweep all of those back up at once, and the post-Jihad Inner Sphere is many times more screwed than at the time the Sarna March devolved into the Chaos March.
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Thanks for the answers fellas. Anyone else care to chime in on Micro-states in general, or those of the former FWL? I'd really like to hear a lot of opinions if possible. (Do I need to sweeten the deal with candy?)
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I'll bite. This is or was the FREE WORLDS League. Perhaps the micro-states who have a common history and now maybe a goal of continued sovereignty may ally however loosely to maintain their independence. A Free Worlds Alliance? My vision of the FWL for another project has individual worlds seeking friends almost immediately and assembling in 3-4 world small provinces. Some go on to larger provinces but no world is an island. How truly self sufficient are they?
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Well, they had to have been self-sufficient at one point in order to apply Camlann v Free Worlds to gain independence from one of the major provinces; at one time or another, pretty much 2/3rds of the FWL belonged to Marik, Oriente, Regulus, or Andurien. Whether they were still mostly self-sufficient at the end of the 4th War is another issue.
Fun fact: every world that was part of the Duchy of Andurien (in the FWL) during the Star League era had used Camlann v Free Worlds to withdraw from the Duchy by 3025.
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Those states also worked together pretty well, at least at the trade level. When I did my production spreadsheets way back when, the proto-states in the FWL had a lot of military hardware trade going on, even after the end of the Jihad (though certain combinations obviously didn't exist). There's also some pretty strong indications that the Republic provided some discreet support to specific proto-states to keep things calm (and likely to keep some pressure on the Capellans where possible).
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Thanks guys, I appreciate the feedback. Good to see the forum "at work." :D
A couple more.
Independent worlds. Thoughts? Expectations? In general, how do they survive independently when larger states are close neighbors? What keeps a planet independent when closing ranks seems like a logical option?
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They aren't worth the trouble. Either they are self sufficient and dirty poor with little to offer potential invaders or they have a reputation for stubborn resistance. Cooperation I've already explained by there is another philosophy other states could be afraid of. Democratic contagion. Absorbing these planets might expose your own world to persistent political campaigning aimed at tearing down your central government and establishing a true Free Worlds order.
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Agreed on the "aren't worth the trouble" line, but there are other ways they can be "trouble" such as by being a net drain on the infrastructure of the larger state. This is, after all, more or less why the Inner Sphere states didn't just casually swallow up the Periphery as soon as they (re)discovered a world. Most of the Periphery-side worlds of the great states were already a drain on the economies of the central states (the FedSuns "Outback" was notoriously poor and underdeveloped), so there has to be some sort of incentive for a larger state to absorb a smaller one.
Of course, since it's people who run states, sometimes all the reason required is "because it's there, and I can." Which is why said independent states run a risk.
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For anyone, everyone - What do you think are the bare minimum requirements for a small proto-state to exist surrounded by larger ones?
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There are any number of potential answers to this one. The small state could, as mentioned before, have a reputation for insane levels of resistance from its civilian populace. Or it could have a military which punches well above its apparent weight (the Sri Lankan military kicks royal ass at counterinsurgency...because they've been doing it for decades on their home turf; no one's messed with Switzerland in hundreds of years). It could be some sort of puppet state, or left alone by larger ones as neutral ground on which the big states can meet unofficially to discuss business while technically being at war.
The easiest thing to have, though, would be a underdeveloped economy (so there's no money to be made in conquering it) and neighbors which have other problems (their own revolts/wars/recessions/etc) and therefore can't engage in foreign adventurism against minor states. This is pretty much how the canon Periphery states survived during the Succession Wars.
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Anyone else care to chime in?
Lots of feedback is appreciated.
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Some can also live off their reputation, deserved or not, even if their military is completely busted and broke (Hi there Regulus!).
Honestly, micro-states work in the BT setting much better than the larger states. It helps to bring the military sizes into closer (but still not accurate) alignment.
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Ultimately, I think it all comes down to Perceived Cost VS Perceived Benefit.
Note, this is NOT real Cost vs Benefit but the perceptions of both.
This also does not only include the C-Bill costs, but the manpower costs, opportunity costs, and perceived strategic benefits.
So long as the micro-states can portray themselves as not worth the time/effort to take, they will remain potentially viable. As soon as that equation shifts and a neighbor is capable....they are meat.
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Well to be on the map a star system has to be involved in the interstellar community which means space transport of some kind. To be independent of a Great House - no oath of fealty to a Successor Lord - no taxes sent to a national body - no occupying force. ComStar recognition could go a long way here.
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What about without having ComStar recognition? Keeping mind, for example, the Indy worlds in the former FWL have no such recognition.
What areas of the Inner Sphere do you guys think couldn't enjoy micro states or independent worlds of any kind?
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What about without having ComStar recognition? Keeping mind, for example, the Indy worlds in the former FWL have no such recognition.
What areas of the Inner Sphere do you guys think couldn't enjoy micro states or independent worlds of any kind?
I don't really think ComStar recognition is essential. It wasn't necessary for some of the places in the Chaos March.
To your second question...none. Anywhere in the Sphere could have micro states. Just about every faction that I can think of has a clearly purpose built "fifth column" type group.
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To your second question...none. Anywhere in the Sphere could have micro states. Just about every faction that I can think of has a clearly purpose built "fifth column" type group.
This is personal opinion, but do you beleive there's a single location in the Inner Sphere where the planets are simply to important that in the presence of a large state or collection of micro-states independent worlds wouldn't exist?
This question is also for anyone willing to jump in.
And, thanks again to everyone for participating in the conversation. It is greatly appreciated.
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This is personal opinion, but do you beleive there's a single location in the Inner Sphere where the planets are simply to important that in the presence of a large state or collection of micro-states independent worlds wouldn't exist?
Nothing that jumps out at me, off the top of my head. I'm sure some of the resource deprived worlds probably wouldn't be independent, and likely to band together. But that delves into a whole other silly issue in BT, and the idea that interstellar shipping is desperately important for a world to survive. Apparently, hydroponics and greenhouses don't exist in BT.
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Thanks Dread.
Anyone else? I'd love to hear from Klink, MadCap, any of the Hexare or KU guys.
Any new member out there willing to throw a little opinion my way? It's appreciated.
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The only planets I can't see staying independent are important (manufacturing) worlds like Hesperus II, Irian, Luthien, etc. They are simply too tempting not to invade.
Let's say Irian decides to become independent and stay away from all that fighting going on, so they can become even wealthier by selling weapons to everyone around them. This might work for a while. They use diplomacy and trade to keep all those forming regional power blocs from conquering them, pretty much trying to pull the same stunt ComStar did during the canon Succession Wars. But, sooner or later the regional powers will have been consolidated. Irian is still a heavily industrialized world, but they simply don't have the resourves at their disposal, that the bigger powers surrounding them have.
The reginol powers know, that conquering Irian will not be easy, but all those factories make for a target too good not to conquer. Sure, they could just keep buying irian's stuff like they just to, but that would mean letting their rivals buy military hardware from Irian, too. Also, no one can garantuee, that Irian will not at some point join one of their rivals. Best to act now and secure Irian for yourself, than wait until some one else comes to the same conclusion.
At this point, Irian has to options: 1) join one of the big powers on good terms or 2) try to stay independent at any cost. The Irian militia might be good and well equipped, but it has only the resources of a single planet at their disposal.
Let's say power A attacks Irian, but Irian is able to repell them and refuses to sell power A any more weapons. This harms A, but Irian's militia has been weakened. Power B thinks, that Irian is now weakened and will make for an easy target, so they invade. Irian is able to defeat them, too. Retreating, B decides to destroy as much of Irian's industry as possible, so they will be unable to sell to their enemies. Irian's militia is further weakened, plus their ability to rebuild their forces has been reduced (and they lost to important markets to sell their goods). This will repeat until someone conquers Irian or everything important has been destroyed and Irian is not worth fighting over.
The only way for a world like Irian to stay independent and keep their factories would be, imo, to become a respectable power them self.
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I agree with Ronin; it's not location which drives inclusion into larger states, but the resources a given world brings to the table, real or perceived. Tikonov is an excellent example. Sun Tzu Liao made a point of recovering it early for both the prestige taking it away from Davion provided, as well as for the fact that its heavily industrialized economy would be a significant boon to the resurgent Capellan Confederation. The fact that it was far from the rest of the nation, and that we might suspect its supply chain was severely disrupted by switching sides were costs considered worth the benefits.
But, clearly by design, each central power of the Inner Sphere has its separatist elements, several of them have more than one. It's clearly part of interstellar feudalism, because otherwise there's little explanation for why the successor lords allow such internal division of vision & opinion.
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Location is not all but it helps when it comes to defensive operations; ie if a world is too isolated, it will be difficult to defend.
To come back to your earlier questions, I think a lot of Micro-States might be safe as has been stated, it will be difficult to conquer them all (resistance of each State, problems on the other borders, perceived benefices against real costs...) but by not facing one Major State, you can always take the calculated risk of letting some of your borders free and concentrate some of the freed resources to attack a worthy target.
As for how to remain independent when you are a small world, you forgot the good old "if you attack me, other big ones will come to my rescue" (see The Encyclopedists by Asimov).
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Equally, a world between two powers might well find itself being fought over because it is strategically placed whereas a world that happens to be isolated may be granted the opportunity to remain independent because no one near it considers it a priority.
Using the FWL region as an example, let's compare the maps from 3085 to 3130.
Firstly, did the neighbours move in at all?
Answer: yes. The Lyran Commonwealth, even before Melissa Steiner II launched her invasion, appears to have pushed the border thirty light years or so and mostly at the expense of Tamarind-Abbey. The Capellan Commonwealth seems to have made a push for several worlds between Oriente and Andurien before their borders made contact, generally picking up independent worlds (and given the history, certainly ones that were once part of the Confederation anyway). Interestingly the Marians don't seem to have pushed in since the abortive invasion in the immediate post-jihad but the Canopians have taken a couple of worlds, securing a link to their Capellan allies.
Secondly, did the major provinces expand at the expense of their smaller neighbours?
Again, yes, although it seems to have been mid-sized polities that suffered the most. Of twelve multi-world polities in 3085, only six survive in 3130 and all six that vanished were absorbed by a larger neighbour. Only the Rim Commonality and Tamarind-Abbey have not done this, but that's probably lack of opportunity more than anything. Small multi-world polities were large enough that they could pose a long term threat, small enough to be annexable and could reasonably be absorbed as a lump whereas each independent world would need to be fought for (as opposed to pressuring a ruler to fold all their worlds into your realm at once).
What independent worlds were absorbed? Looking at each of the six survivor realms of the FWL in turn:
Andurien has expanded considerably, moving into worlds bordering the Capellans, Canopians and Oriente but not deeper into the relatively large number of independent worlds seperating them from the Regulans.
The Marik-Stewart Commonwealth has actually lost a few worlds but expanded towards the Lyran border as well as towards Oriente. This seems to be more firming up their border than any particular expansionary goal.
Oriente has expanded right along the Capellan border, presumably to prevent further opportunism by Sun-Tzu and his heirs. They've also picked off several neighbours facing the MSC and Regulans though, leaving only a modest buffer against both. What they haven't done is try to bolster the border with the Republic.
The Regulan Fiefs, interestingly, have expanded away from their major neighbours. Certainly they weren't having much luck against Oriente in the post-jihad era but in general they seem to be expansionary but largely only succeeding against the weaker independent worlds they can pick off one at a time.
The Rim Commonality seems to have expanded along the edge of the periphery, but not inwards towards the Regulans, suggesting that they prefer to leave a comfortable buffer zone.
Tamarind-Abbey expanded along the Lyran border and towards the Marians, suggesting that they were trying to firm up their borders with both powers and prevent further expansion into FWL space.
In most cases therefore, expansion has been aimed at countering and competing with the other large players. Independent worlds which are isolated have largely been left alone presumably on the basis that no one is willing to risk a major push to take them if it means directing attention and resources away from dealing with states that can threaten them.
Also the pace has been quite slow. As Field Manual 3085 indicates, rapid campaigns across dozens of worlds have gone out of fashion for a generation or more, replaced with lower intensity clashes over a single world, manuvering scant and precious military resources to secure an advantage without risking serious losses. As a result, worlds without immediate large neighbours are less at risk.
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Keep it coming! This is really great stuff.
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Another aspect to take into account is whether or not the resulting micro states have access to more military resources/industries.
Different reasons can explain this focus but it might shift the power balance between the different states.