Here's a 'what if' scenario that removes the clans from the timeline. The difference though, is that the Dragoons still exist, in a way. How is this possible? Gather round the campfire as I tell the tale...
Operation Klondike fails, and Nicky K. is killed in the process. His vision for a new society never takes hold, and the clans that he managed to form before Klondike spend the next two centuries fighting for survival against the rebel pentagon factions in a renewed and expanded Exodus Civil War. By the dawn of the 31st century the last survivors (not victors, survivors), equipped with the very last Brian Caches, make for the Inner Sphere.
The long fight for survival means that there is neither clantech nor trueborns. They only have what they were seen using; the supply run of 3019-20 was the last of the stockpile at Bristol. After that there is nothing left except what they manage to produce on Outreach (which isn't that much). Jaime Wolf deletes the Exodus Road coordinates from the ship's memory because there's nothing left to return to. Only dead cinders of worlds. This cannot be stressed enough: the Pentagon worlds and Kerensky cluster are gone and nothing is left, just so many dead ruins. Jaime Wolf, Natasha Kerensky, and gang are all that is left of the SLDF Exodus.
What doesn't change is the skill levels. The long slow death of the Pentagon worlds and Kerensky cluster does have a winnowing effect on martial skills. Plus, they still have much of the old SLDF archives, which still leads them to set up shop on Outreach after the 4th SW. As in canon Jaime Wolf and Natasha Kerensky know their history, especially concerning the SLDF and Outreach. But even lacking the clan-spec techbase, what would they and Blackwell manufacture? SLDF Royal equipment? Would they risk the IS reaction to seeing such a display of technological clout?
I think they'd start off making the same things we saw in the original source book, and add advanced technology at the same pace as the rest of the Inner Sphere to avoid suspicion.They won't have the output they have in canon (lacking clan support/tech level), and will be acutely aware the risks of drawing too much attention with new royal mechs and the like. So they will more likely go for subtle upgrades. But SDS and the like is out of their league, even in canon
A few points: In the backstory, the Dragoons show up in the IS when they did because the Dragoons represent the last survivors of the SLDF Exodus. As in, the Dragoons are not a single faction, but each regiment represents a Pentagon world. The final campaign by Jaime Wolf and Natasha Kerensky united the final survivors. Lacking any hope of rebuilding the Pentagon worlds or Strana Mechty, they bet their last nickel on a return to the Inner Sphere. They didn't wait to return, it was their last chance for survival.
ComStar took an immediate dislike to the canon Dragoons,and there's nothing to suggest this would change. At least in the beginning, maybe as time goes on, ComStar might try to woo them over to their side. Or, they may not wait until the 3060s to wipe them out. Jaime Wolf's notable ability to hold a grudge means that it will probably end badly.
The decade of the 3050s is very likely to see a Fifth Succession war, which in turn could be the opportunity to launch Op.Scorpion. That is, if the WoB hasn't taken over ComStar entirely beforehand. That could mean skipping Op.Scorpion and jumping straight into the Jihad. Without the clan invasion, Outreach will be uncomfortably close to whatever war does happen. And the Dragoons have enemies
Of course this also means that the year 3050 unfolds very differently. So let's discuss the ramifications; what happens in the absence of operation revival? I have a basic timeline hashed out in my head, I'll be posting it as I find time to commit it to coherent text
