OBT Forum

I love this idea.

   That would be an epic story!!! 

Depends on the timing.

Hohiro's escape from Kurushijama prison was 7 May 3050, with the bombardment following shortly after - same day or within a couple of days.

Clan Ghost Bear was almost immediately dealing with crises of their own, a warship accident in the Damien system that cost them an entire Cluster. This rocked them to the point they held a vote on 12 June 3050 on whether to abort their involvement in the Invasion. They also elected new Khans on 24 June 3050 - saKhan DeVillar was mortally wounded in battle and her replacement Aletha Kabrinski challenged the Ghost Bear Khan, Karl Bourjon, leading to his replacement by Bjorn Jorgensson.

The Smoke Jaguars then lost the Battle of Wolcott on 2 October 3050, shaming them. Leo Showers didn't die until 31 October 3050, almost six months after the bombardment. The Nova Cats didn't join the invasion for almost a year after this, with the resumption of the invasion under ilKhan Ulric Kerensky and the activation of reserve clans.

It's likely Leo Showers would have blocked conflict between the Ghost Bears and Smoke Jaguars and it's similarly unlikely Bourjon would have supported such action. This could be forced past but it'd be more likely that it's something that takes place during the 'Year of Peace' with a backdrop of the election of a new ilKhan. Possibly the warship accident is avoided, leaving Bourjon not having to expend political capital to win the vote on 12 June 3050. As a result, Kabrinski doesn't push him out of office immediately and instead the ouster takes place following the death of Leo Showers with his 'excusing' Smoke Jaguar atrocities being one of the tools used.

This makes the Smoke Jaguars an issue... but it's still a long time since Turtle Bay took place. Tempers would have cooled.

Alternatively, possibly DeVillar survives her injuries and - since she's known to be more concilatory to their Inner Sphere conquests - that she spearheads the Trial of Greivance against the Jaguars.

the whole war would start specifically after Leo Showers death, it provides an opening for the bears to act. While it does not NEED Alethia Kabrinski to work, I like her, so having this new minted Khan and known hot head on the warpath would make for an entirely new entertaining and exciting alternate event.

They key underpinning to this, yet again, is that when the Grievance War starts, there is no IlKhan, and by time a new IlKhan is elected, he or she would be nearly powerless to stop the fighting, if only because no clan wants to risk their own touman separating the unstoppable and unmovable.

We should also remember Clan Politics.  Ulric Kerensky, Khan of the Wolves was elected largely cause the Wolves were the most successful clan in the invasion, both on the field and in administering their conquered worlds.  Clan Wolf was also majority Warden, so this war stalling out the invasion meets his Clans political goals.

Well there is the very real need to return to Strana Mechty to elect a new ilKhan.  Would this Grievance War conspire to kill that tradition?

I would start with the Grand Council meeting called to slow the Wolves which resulted in the death of the ilKhan. Have the discussion after Showers death turn into a Smoke Jaguar - Ghost Bear Grievance. This side tracks the election and brings forward the war.

since the entire point of this alternate event is that the bears take advantage of the clans as a whole being leaderless to launch this war...  Why would the clan council, outside of trying desperately to elect a new IlKahn who could stop the Bears and the Jaguars fighting, and finding none, be involved at all?

1) I completely misunderstood you

2) you completely misunderstood me, as that was pretty much exactly what I was saying would happen.

Blacknova's 3051 map gives an excellent idea of the Clans's OZs at this time.

If the Ghost Bears are being devious they might defer formal bidding until the Clans have begun shipping their Bloodnamed home for the kurultais to precede electing a new ilKhan. This would leave the Smoke Jaguar forces without their best warriors and most of their senior officers for the initial stages of the fighting.

The Ghost Bear invasion force was made up of Alpha Galaxy, Beta Galaxy and Delta Galaxy (at least post-Tukkayid). Their only really severe loss was one of their Clusters destroyed in the aforementioned accident (unless it's handwaved). However, they're rather ill-supplied due to Bourjon's overconfidence.

The Smoke Jaguars seem to have fielded Beta Galaxy, Delta Galaxy and Epsilon Galaxy (post-Tukkayid) but an Alpha Galaxy is mentioned before this. We don't have a full TO&E for their touman as we'd later have for the Ghost Bears but it's likely they're overall outnumbered and have a smaller proportion of frontline troops in the home worlds. They also have their own leadership crisis with Sarah Weaver having been ousted and busy fighting her way back to power in this time period.

This suggests the Ghost Bears in the Inner Sphere might well be outnumbered and under-supplied despite the Smoke Jaguar losses on Wolcott. Taking advantage of Bloodnamed warriors being absent and possibly seizing Smoke Jaguar supplies could be important. However once the Bloodnamed return it's likely the Inner Sphere front will be hardfought.

In the Homeworlds, the Ghost Bears might well sweep away most minor Smoke Jaguar enclaves and quickly be preparing to invade Huntress. (So we might ironically see the Smoke Jaguars forcibly evicted from the Clan Homeworlds and forced to retreat to their Inner Sphere OZ.

And there's a question of what the DCMS will be doing while the Invading Clans fight each other. While Theodore is on Outreach, it's perfectly possible raids might be ordered to hit weakened garrisons and seize clan equipment and prisoners with which to strengthen the DCMS. Which could fail or even backfire horribly but it's certain to be an idea with adherents.

Resolving the Greivance War will surely be a major issue for the election of an ilKhan. The Crusaders initially were trying to vilify Ulric, blaming him for Leo Showers' death, but with the Smoke Jaguars distracted this may be less of an issue. However, it may be believed that a Warden elected as ilKhan would prefer to let two Crusader Clans gut each other which is an argument against Ulric being elected. The Ghost Bear and Smoke Jaguars Khans are relatively untested and fighting each other - not good for their chances

The Steel Vipers would want to push to replace one or both of the embattled Clans and Natalie Breen had weathered the storm of failing to get an initial corridor. She'd be a contender, as would Elias Crichell of the Jade Falcons. The Nova Cats and Diamond Sharks have less prospect to step in. Ian Hawker's also a moron, so he's unlikely to become ilKhan, but Severen Leroux would be a formidable ilKhan, able to rally the moderate Crusaders to him and probably being borderline acceptable to the hardliners. The main strike against Leroux is that he's old - but this may mean his rivals would feel that's likely to mean they can step up to replace him sooner than later.

At this point I'm not convinced anyone outside the invading clans stands a chance: the ilKhan does have to supervise the Invasion so a leader not among the invaders would be a difficult sell. Nor would any of the four current invaders and three reserve clans want to open up the field for other clans to join them.

Overall, Elias Crichell might have the best chance of being elected with Natalie Breen and Severen Leroux as the major alternatives. Ulric can't be elected without Conal's plot to step into his shoes, leaving the Wolves with two Crusader Khans.