True Ice, a Terran-Lyran-Rim nation could be the core of a new Star Alliance. I'd split the Commonwealth up into its three component states (Donegal, Tamar, Skye), the Rim Worlds in two (Apollo on top and the other arm), and the Hegemony. Heck you could add Bolan and Rasalhague after the 1st Succession War. Of course you'd face some defections from the SLDF.
On the Outworlds Wastes, the door would go both ways though in my opinion. Yes a Star League in Exile located closer to the InnerSphere does present a problem for those who come and find that where they are going isn't exactly a paradise along with the fact that their known profession (soldering) ain't necessarily their going to be their profession there. You could argue that mercs leaving the area would be balanced by refugees fleeing the Succession Wars too. Be interesting if they cut a deal. Send some of your profits home for development along with any new settlers fleeing the war zone.