OBT Forum

The bottom line is the CC is going to be squashed. 

The first point to bring up is that in 3034 Thomas is not totally nuts and paranoid- there are tendancies, but they really grew and developed between 3028 (4th SW) through the death of his son Edward, the misjump into the Landmark system in 3047 and the Future Victor exercises of 3049.  So in 3034/3035 he will still be seen as a reasonable and competent leader by his people.  More then the betrayal he will be enraged that Grover went after his children- he places a high value on family (per Periphery 1e).  And I wouldn't be so quick to say that the Pleiades Hussars support Grover- originally the TC trusted the CC only slightly less then the FS- they were both IS powers I think they only reason they did not fear them as much as the Davions was that the border with the CC was much smaller then that with the FS.

But getting back to why the CC will get squashed.  In 3034 to 3035 the CC is still in the tail end of the war with the MOC and Andurien.  After the pound they took in the 4th SW and the further damage in the Andurien War, they are going to be in rough shape- they probably won't have the forces to help defend MacLeod's Land- Grover would probably be on his own (looking at the CCAf roster in Brush Wars, in the 3030s, the CCAF is barely bigger then the TDF and probably in worse shape logistically).  And unlike in the 3060s/70s, the TDF is not a technologically backwards force out matched on the battlefield, I suspect that they would do very well against the CCAF.  So I figure when Grover throws his support in with the CC, Thomas (aided by Edward who by what little we know was actually in favor of contact with the FS much like Jeffrey) quickly takes back MacLeod's Land and gives aid to the MOC in their war against the CC.  I can also see the TC driving into the CC, in the name of reclaiming lost Taurian worlds and well just plain retribution.  (probably not going nuclear but hitting key bases and factories, etc).  At this point I can see the FS and Candace Liao stepping in to "save" the people of the CC from their leader's stupidity. (Candace opposed a war to liberate the CC, but I can see her supporting efforts to save the CC from the depravations of the FWL, Andurien, MOC and TC).  Overwhelmed on all sides,  I figure the CC would collapse. Maybe a few worlds would remain loyal to Romano, but I could see many joining the St Ives Compact or remaining under the control of the MOC and TC. 

Wait and see.
The Taurian Concordat is not really a target.

To come back to the starting point, it seems unlikely the Taurians would follow a traitor.

Quote from: masterarminas on January 23, 2012, 01:09:39 PM

What would Hanse do?  I know that he is ramping up preperations for Yellow Bird, but does he take advantage, or does he sit back and hope that Thomas overextends the TDF?

Master Arminas

I don't think Hanse does anything as far the TC is concerned.  If anything I think he takes advantage of the situation to move in (with the support of Candace) as a "peace keeper" to help protect the lives of the Capellan Citizens threatened by the TC, MOC and FWL.

Translation: Annex more Capellan Worlds

Seriously though with the Death of Edward Calderon averted Thomas isn't the paranoid nutcase he became later in life, he's just a slightly paranoid B-rated leader with glimmers of hope. I would want to look at my copy of Brush Wars again to see just where the MoC/Andurien invasion is at by this period but I have suspicions that the CC had pretty much turned it around by this time. Even so the CC is likely overextending themselves very badly by turning around to prosecute a third major conflict in such a short span of time. The TC isn't a military powerhouse at this time but they're nothing to sneeze at either and can definately match the CC blow for blow, especially taking into account the small size of their shared border and how that would allow concentration of forces.

I see it going very badly for the CC. Even with the Pleiades Hussars defecting the TDF should be able to recapture MacLeod's Land in short order and if I was Thomas I would at the same time strike Rollis and even Zanzibar and Corodiz (which I believe were TC holdings way back in the Age of War - the TC in my timeline got them back, or will if my plans go correctly ). Thomas might try to go for even more but if he's smart he would stop there because attacking worlds he has absolutely no claim to would not go down well with the TDF let alone the Taurian populace. If Romano is dumb enough to continue the conflict we might see the final demise of the Capellan Confederation as worlds difect to the St. Ives Compact and maybe even the FWL instead of facing being conquered by the TDF (in their corner) absorbed by the FedSuns or maybe even conquered by a renewed push from the MoC.

The TC isn't a military powerhouse at this time but they're nothing to sneeze at either and can definately match the CC blow for blow, especially taking into account the small size of their shared border and how that would allow concentration of forces.

I don't agree with your original statement.
For the timeframe and the area, it is quite powerful and holding a Taurian world is quite costly.