Chapter 3: The Weight of Reality
Feels like the weight of the world,
Like God in heaven gave me a turn.
Don't cling to me; I swear I can't fix you.
Still in the dark, can you fix me?
Evanescence, Weight of the World
Well the man certainly knows how to get your attention. I thought. Sam looked like he expected the statement and oddly neither did Erika. I looked at the projections hanging in mid air as an uproar broke out. My own training as both a scout and an interest in history that every one of my mentors has encouraged over the years led me to look for patterns. Flows of cause and effect if you will that stand out.
And there they were. In the worst possible places.
“With the dissolution of the Star League, naturally everyone is expecting at least some conflict.†Dr. Suarez was explaining. “What not even the most pessimistic of viewpoints realizes just how bad it is going to get. Or how soon, General Kerensky’s desertion has acted like an accelerant , CIB’s best estimate is that within three to five years the Inner Sphere will be locked in a war that will make all previous wars look like schoolyard spats.â€
“Most likely we will see either the Draconis Combine or the Free Worlds League as the flashpoint as both Kenyon Marik and Minoru Kurita have been increasingly aggressive with their neighbors. From there it will spread like wildfire. Both nations seem to be operating under a very dangerous fallacy.â€
As he paused, Suarez manipulated the console in front of him. A map of known human space appeared.
“The false assumption they are working under is that total victory is possible.†On the screen the red of the Combine flowed out to envelope the whole of Human Space. “The reasons Total Victory is impossible are many but the most glaring fault is this no one state has the resources to conquer then occupy another while at the same time defending against its neighbors.†On the screen the Combine attempted the same conquest once again only to have Terra, the Federated Suns and the Lyran Commonwealth hammer them back. At the same time the Capellans and the Free Worlds League launched their own attacks, preventing any one state from gaining supremacy.
“While some worlds will naturally change hands and be kept imagine the case of an industrial world like Chesterton or Kathil, hundreds of millions if not billions of people to indoctrinate, police, to rule. The entirety of the AFFS for example would barely be able to take and hold Luthien or Sian for the length of time necessary to turn either world into a nominally loyal possession.â€
Sipping at his coffee for a moment the short swarthy man shook his head.
“No my friends, they will tell themselves that fueled by the riches of the newly conquered territories they will be able to sustain their wars. Again we come to another flaw. Those conquered territories will take years to become productive again. Based on both CIB and DMI estimates at the very least initially both Combine and Capellan strategies also include the destruction of enemy war materials factories, ship yards and so forth.â€
And of course we will retaliate in kind, and…“These strategies will rapidly spiral out of control as the wars continue and the definition of War Materials is expanded to include the opposition’s entire infrastructure as has happened time and time again. Use of weapons of mass destruction will most likely be employed against heavily defended worlds and the destruction unleashed will render most of the important worlds little more than pyrrhic trophies.â€
Across the map major industrial worlds died in all six of the major powers. Just as importantly lines of trade between worlds flickered out.
“As the conflict continues we come to the final death blow. Trade dies. Ask yourselves what is the mortar that keeps any civilization together? Education, close, community not a bad answer, but what make all these things possible?â€
We all nodded like school children the amusement at the sight fading quickly.
“As trade dies, so do we. As losses to naval shipping mount, the merchant fleets will be pressed into service. This will mean less consumer goods, food, and medicine to get to the civilian populations. Replacement parts for water purification plants and terraforming plants will be delayed or never arrive. Famine, disease and social collapse will soon follow.â€
“And there you have it.†Sam said.