Well, after the weekends game, lets take a look at the Pools and teams and how they might finish in the 2011 RWC.
Pool A - NZ, France, Tonga, Canada and Japan
As much as I love the style of Tonga, Canada and Japan (having seen all 3 live at the 2003 RWC), they will be fighting for the also ran champ status. The real betting will be on the France v NZ match (I get to see this epic game). I believe France will do what they normally do at RWC's and ruin NZ's party AGAIN, finishing top of the pool.
Pool B - Argentina, Engalnd, Scotland, Georgia, Romania/Uruguay
This pool is one for the old school die hards, the ones who love a kick'a'thon scrum fest. Although Scotland have upset Australia, England and South Africa recently, kicking goals in horizontal sleet, in front of 80 000 drunken Scots, is markedly different from the RWC, where Scotland are traditionally underwhelming. In 2-3 years they will be a force in the 6 nations, but not in the RWC. Should England continue the devestating style of play they showed against the Wallabies, they will finish top, as Argentina are lacking the same flair that saw them into 3rd in the 2007 RWC.
Pool C - Australia, Ireland, Italy, USA, Russia
Ireland have a great starting 15. Thats it. They have left thier player replacement schedule too close to the RWC, like South Africa, and will pay the price. The ups and down of Austrlaia will be a factor, but the Wallabies players know the venues they are playing at, a small but important avantage, as well as not needing o recover from a long overseas trip and the accordant stress that causes. Australia will finish top of the pool in rough form, with thier tradgedy yet to come. I do wish I could get to see the Cold War replay.
Pool D - South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia
If I were Wales 'd be S***ing myslef. Fiji and Samoa are on the rise, and Wales have lost the form that saw them hold the 6 nations title. South Africa will win the pool, believing it thier manifiest destiny to take another title. However, they are now too old and will be carrying once great players, such as Matfield, as baggage. They will either go with what they have, or make wholesale changes too close to the cup to be effective out of the pool stages. I am tipping SA and Fiji to go through, especially since the Fijians showed that they are more than capable of matching Wales at home and will have huge expat support in NZ.
Quater Finals
Australia - Fiji
Australia never have had the problems with Fiji that other sides have and should account for the Islanders.
England - NZ
This will be a good game, but at home, NZ will be out for blood after finishing 2nd. England will be defeated by a rampant NZ on the rebound.
South Africa - Ireland
The battle of the geriatrics is hard to pick. Either team could win, but I believe SA's better depth will get them through...just.
France - Argentina
2003 will not repeat itself as Argentina are lacking that same edge from 4 years ago. It will be close, as history will play on French minds, but the French side will progress.
Semi-Finals
Australia - NZ
This game is impossible to predict as its what both side live for. However, at RWC's, NZ always falter in this game against Australian sides. Being thier chance at home though, they will have a real edge to thier game, the future of thier names and team name hinging on this battle against the great enemy. This will be the best game of the tournament and one of the greatest tests of all time. I hate to say it, but NZ by a whisker, or Carter's boot.
France - South Africa
France will expose South Africa here and have a realitive easy run into the final, barring a spurt of French madness.
THE FINAL
I'll review each possibility here...
Australia - France
Should it come to this, Australia will take a narrow game, as they know how to beat the French in the big fixtures, something NZ just can't seem to master. However, this is open to review based on next weeks results.
Australia - South Africa
South Africa will finish on the bottom of the Tri-Nations again next year and bluffing thier way to the final will make thier defeat all the more devestating.
NZ- France
This will be up there with a Australia/NZ semi. If NZ beat the Australians, they are at a real risk from the French. Again, this will be an epic game, and probably the best combination for a final (short of NZ winning thier pool and facing Australia in a final).
NZ- South Africa
South Africa would be the first side to give up 50 points in a RWC final.
Notes
The only major change is NZ winning thier pool, as Wales advancing at Fiji's expence will change little. This would have Australia facing France in a semi and likley beating them, but by very little. Of course France can still account for the Australians and set up the same final. NZ would dust SA and have a great final against Australia or France.
However, I see the top four most likley finishing NZ, France, Australia, South Africa.
Thoughts?
