OBT Forum

Michael Hasek-Davion controlled several ministries by 3013 and if he hadn't been distracted by his father's death and having to take up the reins on New Syrtis might well have successfully dominated Hanse's early government too. Without Hanse purging Hasek-Davion loyalists from the government, and given Ian's continued absences on campaign, it's likely there's an ongoing power-struggle in the government between Hanse and Michael. This would tend to lean towards Hanse as Ian gets older without marrying but if Hanse remains single too then that could rebound against him with Morgan looking more and more like the probable heir.

It's likely that Michael would prefer a pragmatic, short-term alliance with the FWL against the Capellan Confederation rather than an alliance with the Lyrans that primarily seems to benefit the Draconis March (Hanse Davion, like his brother, spent much of his military career fighting the DCMS and only operated in the Capellan March as a senior officer so he's going to have more allies in the former March).

It's possible then that Hanse champions Katrina's proposal and would head a pro-Lyran faction (perhaps even visiting Tharkad) while Michael engages in covert talks with Janos Marik.

So much for the internal wrangling of House Davion. What about outsiders? Maximilian Liao would hate the idea of an alliance between both his hated neighbours... but ComStar might like not the idea of an alliance but the possibility of exacerbating the tensions to a civil war that could lead to a permanent division of the Federated Suns - arguably the strongest of the Successor States. From their point of view, a split of the Suns could leave two weakened realms in its place, with substantial forces pointed at each other, making them much less of a threat to the DC and CC - neutralising the effect of the alliances. And with the House Steiner and House Marik cordially loathing each other, they'd likely fan the flames.

In this scenario, the Combine now emerges as the strongest Successor State, somewhat mitigated by being flanked by the Lyrans and the Draconis Suns. The Capellans' state is less happy - they may be stronger than the new Capellan Suns, but they're still much weaker than House Marik. So what's the net effect - their logical allies are the Lyrans and the Draconian Suns... which could lead to a Fourth Succession War with major action along six borders,

And of course, if this works out then ComStar will probably try again to split up a Successor State... like the Combine.

Thanks for the kind welcome. 

There's something that, in retrospect, I forgot to include in the initial post.  That was the intimation that Ian's victory was a close-run thing.  Maybe he just barely scored a killing shot on Yorinaga, maybe the Kell Hounds were just a little faster and got there before the battle terminated.  How likely is it that such a thing would be a kind of wake-up call for Ian?  Even if not to get him to settle down and focus on his Princely duties, maybe to at least get hitched and have an heir? (I have doubts about him abdicating the throne in favor of his brother, but given that the Prince's Champion is -- from my reading at least -- empowered to act as the First Prince's political deputy as well as military, appointing Hanse to that position might serve almost as well.)

Leopards can't change their spots my friend so Ian settling down is something I truly doubt you'd ever see. He is a warrior prince, the Takashi Davion of the Federated Suns if you will. I think family pressure would likely prevail upon him the duty of producing an heir but why not have Ian do it his way. There has got to be an available beauty fighting for the AFFS out there somewhere and if he survives enough campaigns, why not? A Mechwarrior? A mercenary? Natasha Kerensky? 

If Ian's injured I could see him spending a year or two on new Avalon being treated and then working up to full health (quite important since he'd want to be back in a 'Mech). It's plausible that he might, given this brush with mortality, decide that the time has come to marry and provide House Davion with a new generation. There's really no information to judge Ian's taste in women, so he could marry for love or he could simply make a political marriage. For the sake of argument, assume that he does the latter, wanting a wife he can leave on New Avalon to look after his children.

At the same time, Hanse probably rises to more prominence since he'd remain the logical choice to take over the Halstead Station raid. (And the Davion brothers were both already superstars of the military). Being Prince's Champion doesn't exclude Hanse from being the heir (if he was Regent for a minor heir, he would be excluded). He's already got some government experience as a military governor (New Aragon) and did well. He and Ian were both quite invested in the project that eventually became NAIS, so that would probably happen.

So by 3015 the picture could be: Ian's married and possibly a father, but raring to go back to the frontlines of the 3SW - almost certainly on the Draconis March. Hanse is acting as his Champion, leading the AFFS as a whole from New Avalon and also with his thumb on various civil roles - he might be titular head of NAIS for example, lending it that prestige - and connections. However, there are several other power players - Aaron Sandoval and Michael Hasek-Davion as Ministers of the Draconis and Capellan Marches, for example. And Ian's wife might be a political hub in her own right, whoever she is.

At some point in the next... five years, say (before Katrina's Peace Proposal)... Ian dies in battle. That raises questions. Should the throne pass to his eldest child, with a Regency? If so, who are the Regents (or sole Regent)? Or, and there's plenty of historical precedent in the Federated Suns, does it make sense to pass the throne directly to an adult heir? In which case Hanse has much to commend himself. Legally, the former is required, but functionally there's a lot of evidence that those laws are relatively easily set aside (Ian succeeded without a regency, Katherine's reign as Archon-Princess...) in favour of practicality.

Hanse might well want to be First Prince, and not just due to ambition - after all, if there's a Regency then Michael Hasek-Davion is a very strong choice since if Hanse is Regent then he's excluded from succession and there's not an overwhelming number of alternatives if Ian's children don't thrive. This could lead to an uncomfortable compromise: Michael as regent but Hanse hangs on as Prince's Champion and Ian's widow acts as a third pole of power - possibly Michael's co-regent.

That could be a very interesting power-struggle, one reflected in internal politics but also external diplomacy and military strategy.

Hanse might well want to be First Prince, and not just due to ambition - after all, if there's a Regency then Michael Hasek-Davion is a very strong choice since if Hanse is Regent then he's excluded from succession and there's not an overwhelming number of alternatives if Ian's children don't thrive.

Why?

Interesting points. 

A grave injury could produce a very dark and perhaps deeply depressed First Prince. Unable to fight Ian might become a sullen sovereign of sorts.  Family might make him a little happier as he tutor his successor.

 Having a Davion line that will inherit the throne does change things but does the very nature of the Federated Commonwealth change? Do you have the dynastic marriage?  Or does Ian reject the Peace Proposal outright and no Fed Com Alliance come about.

Good questions.  I'm not sure what Ian would gain from shooting down a Fed-Com alliance, though.  After all, many of the same reasons Hanse went for it -- i.e., access to Lyran wealth and industrial capacity -- would still apply, especially if he had his eye on the (inevitable) 4SW.  He might push for an alliance that didn't include an official political merger, for a continued sense of national sovereignty/identity, perhaps.  Or defer that question to the next generation -- perhaps for his child, and the child of Melissa Steiner, to decide. 

Quote from: drakensis on March 04, 2014, 03:18:58 AM

Hanse might well want to be First Prince, and not just due to ambition - after all, if there's a Regency then Michael Hasek-Davion is a very strong choice since if Hanse is Regent then he's excluded from succession and there's not an overwhelming number of alternatives if Ian's children don't thrive.

Why?

If you mean why would Hanse being regent bar him from succession, that's a law dating back to the Davion Civil War of the 26th century where two of First Prince Alexander Davion's aunts, who were regents during his minority, laying claim to the throne in his place.

The law could be changed, of course.