drakensis « on: September 06, 2009, 04:46:43 PM »The premise here is that Hanse Davion prioritises the Draconis Combine as a target during the Fourth Succession War. There's some logic to this: if the Combine is taken down a notch, then they will be a significantly reduced diversion when the time comes to go after the League and/or Confederation. And concentration of force is a basic military premise.
For the intelligence war, assume that Justin Allard's efforts stymie the Confederation about as much as the Wolf Dragoons tied up the DCMS in canon. Thus, relatively few worlds are taken - let's say that Candace manages to remove that salient into the St Ives Compact, giving her some more martial glory.
On the other border, the Combine is focused on the Dragoons and other worlds in the Galtor thumb, leading to gains closer to Terra comparable to the Confederation's losses in canon.
This has tremendous potential for the AFFS: taking seventy worlds in this area could create a new border running from Buckminster to Benjamin to Proserpina. The 'Terran Corridor' would be on the order of two hundred light years across and Theodore Kurita would have little choice but to abandon his counter attacks and flee for the rump of the Combine, leaving worlds between the LCAF and AFFS to fall at will. With Dieron and Benjamin Districts essentially smashed, the Combine is in dire straits. Takashi Kurita would almost certainly be ousted, possibly by a coup or simply seppuku, leaving Theodore as Coordinator, but still young and inexperienced in politics, and probably diluting his military reforms due to other demands on his time.
Menawhile, Hanse Davion would probably now be looking at the Confederation in 3039. It's unlikely to have had ComStar's aid as the Combine did, and the Combine would hardly provide a threat. The Andurien Crisis would probably not have arisen with the Confederation intact, so it's best chance might be an alliance with the League. Let's consider for a moment the prospect of a marriage between Captain-General Thomas Marik and Chancellor Candace Liao in an attempt to forge an alliance against the juggernuat of the Federated Commonwealth. A Fifth Succession War in the early 40s would probably push them both back, but not crush them as the AFFC was still struggling with its new organisation and probably just about every covert spanner than could be put in Hanse's path would be.
muttley - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #1 on: September 06, 2009, 04:53:12 PM »Woo- fun. I like this one! So "Real" Thomas Marik is running things?
Ice Hellion - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #2 on: September 07, 2009, 03:59:26 PM »What about attacks by the Free Worlds League against the Lyran Commonwealth?
I think there is a slight difference between Capellan Confederation and Draconis Combine: they are not the same people, morale is different and military might too.
Takiro - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #3 on: September 07, 2009, 05:15:48 PM »Likely the same effect here. It is very possible that this FedCom could be in a better position to unite the InnerSphere then the canon one. The Draconis Combine was the most powerful of the Concord of Kapetyn and without it relations between the CC and FWL could breakdown.
Ice Hellion - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #4 on: September 08, 2009, 05:54:30 PM »Then the Fox is not the genius he is supposed to be.
Takiro - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #5 on: September 09, 2009, 08:34:50 AM »Huh?
Ice Hellion - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #6 on: September 10, 2009, 03:26:42 AM »He was supposed to be "The Fox" making the best and the most surprising choices.
Not going for the Draconis Combine is a mistake, especially when it would have been the best way for the future/new Federated Commonwealth to unite the Inner Sphere.
Takiro - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #7 on: September 10, 2009, 06:16:50 AM »I'm not sure you can make such a statement Ice. The DC was their common enemy and their biggest threat IMO. Reducing it to a rump state or at least winning back all you Succession War losses is big progress. It only bites them in the butt when the Clans come. What do you think the outcome of this scenario would be?
drakensis - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #8 on: September 11, 2009, 03:38:09 AM »I think he's suggesting that having Hanse go for the Combine first and having it turn out a better move, means that canonical Hanse was not making the best possible move when he went for the Confederation and that therefore the canonical Hanse is made to look foolish.
Ice Hellion - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #9 on: September 11, 2009, 11:10:05 AM »Exactly.
Takiro - Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #10 on: September 11, 2009, 12:27:51 PM »Ah, well it all depends upon the outcome I guess. I don't think you'll win as many worlds but you will reduce your greatest threat IMO.
drakensis Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #11 on: September 11, 2009, 05:25:13 PM »And of course, stripped of the industrial might of Dieron, the Combine would be that much less able to fight the Clans.
Takiro Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #12 on: September 11, 2009, 06:48:06 PM »Well two things.
1. War of 3039? Does the Combine survive this??
2. The Clan Invasion would be like mana from the gods for the FWL-CC if they haven't already joined the FC alliance.
Ice Hellion Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #13 on: September 13, 2009, 05:07:29 AM »1. Why would they attack the Draconis Combine once more? Striking the FWL/CC might be a better idea now.
However, ComStar could have increased its help to the Combine or changed its target and worked with the FWL.
2. Why would they join it?
Takiro Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #14 on: September 17, 2009, 08:20:53 AM »Depending on the state of the Draconis Combine it might be better to finish off the Dragon rather than attack the FWL or the CC. IMO the Draconis Combine was the leader of the Concord of Kapetyn and without them (their participation and leadership damaged if not destroyed by the juggernaut like assault on the Combine) relations between Marik and Liao would revert to their pre-alliance conditions. Can you say war? Why on Earth would you give them any reason to fear you? Additionally I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibilty that FWL could join the FC especially if he can get at the CC. I doubt the Cappies would willing join the FC unless Candace ascended the throne after Mad Max.
It all depends but sure would be interesting.
St.George Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #15 on: December 04, 2009, 04:01:01 AM »are you assuming that the DCMS would roll over like a dog and expose their balls like the cappies did in 25'?the Fox left the bulk of the fighting to the LCAF,for which they were doing ok,till they ran into a up-and-coming Teddy K.Just saying "take out the DC" still leaves you with a rump state in the rear.That can still lay a smack-down out if it's forced to.How far do you have to go befor you can claim they are "finally"takin' care of,I'd say total occupation of a people who are willing to die.
If there is any mistake here then it's the failure to take all the CC in 1 stroke,that would force the FWL to sue for peace and tote the line of the FC.thus leaving Teddy K. out on a limb,by himself.
drakensis Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #16 on: December 05, 2009, 03:24:34 AM »Well, note 1: While commentary has put this in terms of a mistake, I'm consider it more as different choices that opent up different possibilities by trade off. The benefit on focusing on the Combine is a drastically weaker Combine than in canon, the cost is that the Confederation isn't reduced as it was canonically and would probably form a relatively close alliance with the Free Worlds League.
Regarding knocking the Capellans totally out of the war, the Federated Suns, even with support from the Lyran Commonwealth, flatly does not have the ability to accomplish that. The Fourth Succession War was an all out effort for the Federared Suns by Battletech standards: the only reason that the DCMS didn't rape the Draconis March despite the diversion of fighting the Commonwealth was the extraordinary efforts of the Wolf Dragoons; the economy was in shambles; and ComStar was actively if discreetly attacking the Suns. What Hanse did manage was to seize the Sarna Commonality (roughly 1/5th of the Confederation) by military means and orchestrate the seccession of the Tikonov and St Ives Commonalities by diplomatic means.
The concept here is to have a similarly 'limited victory' against the Draconis Combine. The combined military efforts of the LCAF and AFFS could reasonably shatter the Dieron and Benjamin Districts, taking control of most of them. Similarly, Rasalhague District could probably be pushed into revolt, leaving the Combine reduced to Pesht District, Galedon District and whatever they can hold onto from the other Districts. Theodore Kurita might well score victories, but it would be a very different war.
The flipside of course is that a stronger Capellan Confederation - and possibly a living and still treacherous Michael Hasek-Davion could make the Capellan Front extremely fragile. A marriage alliance between Candace and Thomas Marik could make the League a factor, which they were not under Janos. Now there's an unholy triumvirate for Hanse to fight: the FWLM invading the Lyran Commonwealth, the Capellan March rising up against him and the Capellan Confederation supporting both.
St.George Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #17 on: December 07, 2009, 03:02:36 AM »not that anything is wrong with the "name" of this operation and well thought out.but it does lack a few Q&A,like why is the DCMS lacking behing the CCAF,when on paper their not half as strong?
the Rasalhaugeians wouldn't find freedom under the Lyrans,and the dragoons was "so" beat up that any offence by that unit would have reduced them to nothing.thus the AFFS wouldn't have the cake walk in the Combine like they had in the Confederation.the marches to be left on their own while the Fox attacked the combine might start a revolt buy Duke Mikey,,,and Candace and Thomas,,,,,,,if they "didn't" kill each other(shes a warrior,he a bookworn)not to mention their gov'ts hate each other.
drakensis Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #18 on: December 07, 2009, 04:52:59 AM »The dragoons was "so" beat up that any offence by that unit would have reduced them to nothing
The Dragoons battering took place over a succession of battles from just before Operation Rat through to near the end of the 4th SW and would probably proceed largely as in canon. Achieving this cost the DCMS quite a lot of units battered to the point of uselessness or at least fully absorbed in fighting the Dragoons not defending the Combine: 8th Sword of Light, 5th, 8th, 12th & 16th Galedon Regulars (and possibly the 17th, 19th & 21st depending on which units had fought on Misery), 3rd Prosperina Hussars and all five regiments of the Ryuken. 11 to 14 regiments out of 79 regiments total for the DCMS: 16% of the total. All this accompished with the Dragoons and a handul of AFFS regiments.
why is the DCMS lacking behing the CCAF,when on paper their not half as strong?
The DCMS would be fighting not only the AFFS, as the CCAF was, but also the LCAF and the Wolf Dragoons. The troops in prefectures lining the Lyran front would number around 30 regiments, minimum (LCAF had 35 invading). At least 11 and more probably 14 regiments would be entirely absorbed fighting the Wolf Dragoons. In addition, regiments in Pesht District would be too far back to play an initial role in the war which removes another 8. That would leave 27 regiments either near the FedSuns border with Dieron & Benjamin Districts or in theory available for support from Rasalhague and Galedon (although in both cases these are unlikely to be available).
The first wave of Operation Rat had the AFFS commit 23 regiments and another 18 regiments participated in waves 2 through 4. A total of 41 regiments against possibly 27 suggest that the DCMS would have significant problems. While reinforcements from Pesht would probably help once they arrived, at best they'd offset the losses and might be completely negated if Galedon and Rasalhague don't release their reserves.
the Rasalhaugeians wouldn't find freedom under the Lyrans
Rasalhague breaking away would be in order to form a seperate nation as they canonically did later on. Since Katrina was riding the 'free rasalhague' campaign objective pretty hard (as in canon, see the Tyr regiment), she would have little choice but to hand traditionally rasalhague worlds over after the war.
Thus the AFFS wouldn't have the cake walk in the Combine like they had in the Confederation
Quite true. However, the DCMS, as worked out above, has effectively 57 regiments to defend against LCAF and AFFS attacks, which are commiting around 76 regiments to the invasion and have the initiative which probably translates to disproportionate losses in the DCMS against the first wave.
the marches to be left on their own while the Fox attacked the combine might start a revolt buy Duke Mikey
The way the Sandovals rose up against Hanse while he was attacking the Confederation?
Also, Hanse was onto Michael and would still have had Justin there to hinder efforts (although Justin probably dies behind enemy lines at some point). Hasek-Davion literally can't afford to rebel when the Capellans are actually making progress against him.
and Candace and Thomas, if they "didn't" kill each other(shes a warrior,he a bookworn)not to mention their gov'ts hate each other
The Free Worlds League would only be more useful in the 4th SW than they were canonically in the sense that they wouldn't lose the worlds that they essentially abandoned. The closer alliance between the two states would only follow the demise of both Janos and Maxmilian (and it would be no smoother than the FedCom alliance, quite possibly less)
muttley Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #19 on: December 08, 2009, 08:35:06 PM »Candace would eat Thomas alive, metaphorically speaking
drakensis Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #20 on: December 09, 2009, 04:55:04 AM »A happy marriage then?
Here's a map I scribbled out for the situation around 3030.
The FWL's boundaries haven't been changed by SW4, and the Capellans have managed some modest gains - that would be considered quite good by previous standards. The FRR has its boundaries as they were when it appeared canonically and the DC has made the same gains against Galtor that it did in canon, but lost a huge chunk of worlds near Terra, roughly a square about 200 light years to a side. Because worlds are sparser here than in the CC, this is equivalent to the losses that the Capellans took to Operation Rat and Tikonov's defection.
For ongoing effects: It seems likely that ComStar would again negotiate a peace treaty but this time it would be the Combine who would refuse to ratify it, although they would de facto accept the new borders since they'd have little option. The DCMS would be a spent force, surviving only becasuse the LCAF and AFFS are almost as badly off and need their remaining reserves to prevent adventurism by the FWLM or the CCAF.
Maxmilian Liao would probably hang on longer, without the shattering effects of losing half his realm. While they scored successes, the Maskirova would doubtless realise that the CCAF offensives had stalled due to misinformation from Michael Hasek-Davion and conclude that the Duke was acting on behalf of Hanse Davion. A revenge assassination seems likely. Meanwhile, the power struggle between Romano and Candace would grow even more bitter (Tormano probably joins ComStar as part of the settlement from Romano's attempted assassination of Quintus Allard on Terra). Similarly a struggle between Duggan and Duncan Marik during Janos incapacity (no reason his health wouldn't fail similarly to canon) destablizes the FWL.
Both Liao sisters seek support from outside the CC. Candace turns to the FWL and forms a private alliance with Duggan Marik, sharing their intelligence sources and co-ordinating movements of troops and border raids to embarass their respective rivals. Romano tries to secure support from Morgan Hasek-Davion (without the beating of the canonical SW4 she's probably still focused her spite on Marik) reasoning that pulling the Capellan March into the CC would weaken the still forming Federated Commonwealth. Morgan plays along, to the extent that Hanse instructs him to do so.
Both situations end moderately explosively. A Maskirova assassin disguised as an MIIO agent assassinates Thomas and Duggan Marik, leaving Duncan as the dying Janos' clear heir. Meanwhile, having played Romano like a fiddle, MIIO creates an opening for Morgan to successfully seize Tikonov from the Capellan Confederation - with Justin Allard and Alex Mallory helping at the cost of their own lives. Romano tries to salvage her disgrace by claiming that Justin was acting as Candace's agent, but Candace fakes up evidence that Justin and Alex were murdered by MIIO in revenge for Michael Hasek-Davion's death and Romano's aspirations crash, hard, just as the newly confirmed Captain-General Duncan Marik issues a warning to the Federated Commonwealth that if they try to continue their advance beyond taking Tikonov, the FWL will jump in to defend their ally. Hanse backs down as he needs a few more years before recovery from SW4 is complete and Tikonov is quite a prize anyway.
Meanwhile Thoedore Kurita is rebuilding the DCMS with a flow of supplies from ComStar. Although they aren't rebounding as well as they did in canon due to the loss of important industrial worlds, Theodore has even more opportunity to dictate changes than he did as Gunjo no Kanrei so doctrine is improving rapidly. Theodore would also like to bring Rasalhage back into the Combine. With the Kapteyn Pact actually showing some signs of coalescing into a genuine alliance, Hanse and Katrina would be looking for an opportunity to break it up witha relatively limited war, since they don't want to take the punishment that SW4 did to their economies again.
There isn't really a clear target, since all their enemies are of similar strength. What suggests itself as a gambit is for the Federated Commonwealth to annex the Circinnus Federation. Duncan Marik has no choice but to fight that, as it endangers his flank, but Katrina can spin it as the FWL over-reacting to a reasonable measure to stop the piracy from Circinnus which might deter the distant Candace or Theodore from assisting. Even if it doesn't, it would have to have Theodore watching the Outworlds Alliance or Rasalhague in case he gets outflanked the same way.
Rainbow 6 Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #21 on: December 09, 2009, 05:29:44 AM »If the Commonwealth does take Circinus, or a war develops over the Federation between the Commonwealth and the League i could see the Combine going into the Alliance as a pre-emptive messure. Which the Commonwealth would have to answer in kind to stop themselves being outflanked.
Actually with the periphery becoming important for the Inner Sphere states in your senario the 5th succession war would be the inner sphere states warring over the nearby periphery states.
Corbeau Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #22 on: December 09, 2009, 09:01:58 AM »Actually, I can see the Combine going into the Outworlds Alliance as well. First, it removes the threat of being flanked. Second it gains them a few factories to offset the losses of the Dieron District. Third, it shows the population that the DCMS can still fight, and is not going to wait for the AFFC to punch them in the gut.
I could also see the FWL sending feelers out to Canopus and the Capellans sending feelers out to the Taurians. Basically makes for a polarizing setting. You're either with the FedCom or with Kapteyn. There are no other choices.
Rainbow 6 Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #23 on: December 09, 2009, 12:03:20 PM »You'd end up with something like the following:-
The FedCom & FWL fighting over the Circinus Federation
The FedCom & Combine fighting over the Outworlds Alliance
The FWL 'inviting' the Illyrian Palatinate, Lothian League, Marian Hegemony & Magistracy of Canopus into the League.
The CapCon giving the Taurian's the choice of join the Confederation as a new Commonality or an invasion followed by the FedCom counter invading to aviod being flanked.
The Greater Valkyrite & Oberon Confederation either being invaded by the FedCon/FRR or being offered to join one or the other.
Ice Hellion Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #24 on: December 09, 2009, 05:47:16 PM »While they scored successes, the Maskirova would doubtless realise that the CCAF offensives had stalled due to misinformation from Michael Hasek-Davion and conclude that the Duke was acting on behalf of Hanse Davion.
May I ask why?
drakensis Re: Operation Saint George « Reply #25 on: December 10, 2009, 03:18:46 AM »Much as in canon: Hanse had been feeding Michael incorrect information on deployments, knowing that it was being relayed to Sian. However, Michael had also altered the data on his own units, which was what got him killed in canon: after finding out he'd been played, he fled to Sian where Max Liao pointed out that the false data had included information Michael could not have been unaware was untrue, and ordered his execution.
