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Author Topic: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)  (Read 14258 times)

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drakensis

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Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« on: March 26, 2011, 12:32:40 PM »

3049
   Jan   Advance forces set out from the Clan Homeworlds.
   Aug   Clan Smoke Jaguar begins attacks on Taurian Concordat
   Sep   Clan Jade Falcon begins attacks on Magistracy of Canopus
      Clan Ghost Bear takes Portland, Rockwellawan and Herotitus as a staging grounds
      Clan Wolf takes Addasaur, Spencer and Detroit as staging grounds.
   Oct   Reports begin to reach the Inner Sphere of heavy raiding in the Magistracy and of massive and brutal battles taking place in the Concordat.
   Nov   Clan Jade Falcon reaches Canopus and the border with the Free Worlds League.
      The Grand Council suggest assigning the Steel Vipers to finish off the Magistracy in order to provide them with a staging ground but IlKhan Showers persuades them not to.
   Dec   ComStar makes first contact with the Clans.

3050
   Feb   A Grand Kurultai convenes to make final adjustments to the strategy
   Mar   Clans Ghost Bear, Wolf and Jade Falcon launch their first waves
      Clan Smoke Jaguar succeed in taking several more Taurian worlds but have still not managed  to take the core.
   Apr   Clan Smoke Jaguars failure is revealed to the Grand Council. IlKhan Showers is forced to accept the use of the Steel Vipers to take over the Smoke Jaguar corridor until the Taurians are beaten. Clan Diamond Shark and Clan Nova Cat are authorised to bring their reserves forwards.
   May   Clans Ghost Bear, Wolf, Jade Falcon and Steel Viper launch the second wave of the invasion.
      Clan Smoke Jaguar take several more Taurian Worlds but have still not penetrated the coreworlds. They also take two worlds bypassed by the Steel Vipers.
   June   The Grand Council is alerted to major atrocities being carried out by the Smoke Jaguars. Showers is barely able to avert censure by proving the Taurian use of Nuclear and Chemical weapons.
      Clan Wolf begins its third wave ahead of schedule.
      Clans Ghost Bear, Jade Falcon and Steel Viper begin their third waves.
   July   Clan Wolf wins bidding to take Furud and Shiro III, forcing Clan Jade Falcon to alter their axis of advance deeper into the FWL.
   Aug   Clan Smoke Jaguar declare victory over the Taurian Concordat. However they have done so by such heavy use of orbital bombardment and weapons of mass destruction that several core worlds of the Concordat have been rendered lifeless. An estimated 50% of the Taurians are dead.
      Clan Wolf and Clan Jade Falcon launch their fourth waves.
   Sep   Clan Ghost Bear and Clan Steel Viper launch their fourth waves.
      ComStar uncovers the extent of damage done to the Taurians. IlKhan Showers is accused of hiding the evidence and killed in a Trial of Greivance by Khan Ulric Kerensky. Home Clans call for a Trial of Absorption and Clan Star Adder secures the right to fight them in the Homeworlds while Clan Nova Cat secures the right to fight the remaining Touman in the Inner Sphere.
   Oct   The Grand Council depart for Strana Mechty to elect a new IlKhan.

3051
   Jan   Outreach Conference convenes.
   May   Theodore Kurita is ordered home from Outreach by his father. He agrees to reduce garrisons  abutting the Draconis March to ease the redeployment of the AFFC but cannot offer substantial aid.
   Jun   Ulric Kerensky is elected ilKhan. He appoints Clan Diamond Shark to reinforce the still
      Steel Viper/Smoke Jaguar corridor.
   Oct   The fifth wave of the invasion is launched.
      Clan Diamond Shark seize several worlds from the Federated Suns

3052
   Jan   ComStar provides Clan Diamond Shark with information on the defenses of New Syrtis.
      The sixth wave of the invasion is launched.
   Feb   Clan Diamond Shark takes New Syrtis
   April   ComStar bids to fight the Clans on New Sagan
   May   Battle of New Sagan: the Clans lose and the Invasion ends.
      

State of Combatant Clans and States, July 3052

Clan Diamond Shark - controlling only ten worlds taken from the Federated Commonwealthl, the Diamond Sharks may appear to be the weakest of the invaders but their Touman is recoevering swiftly and several worlds in their occupation zone are wealthy. They are also exploring the possibility of trade with the Inner Sphere, particularly the impoverished worlds of the Federated Commonwealth's outback.

Clan Ghost Bear - having set themselves moderate goals in each wave of attacks, the Ghost Bears succeeded in having the lowest casualty rates out of all the Clans. They did fight and win two of the toughest battles of the early stages: on Menke and Grand Base; but after reorganising during the lull they proved their might by bringing down most of the St Ives Compact with relative ease during the Fifth and Sixth Waves.

Clan Jade Falcon - making the most progress towards Terra, a few light years more advanced than Clan Wolf by the end of the invasion, the Jade Falcons are now alone at the head of the Crusader faction, albeit one tainted by the atrocities of their long-term allies among the Smoke Jaguars. With the longest border open to the Inner Sphere and having suffered among the heaviest losses on New Sagan, the Jade Falcons may be vulnerable in the short term to both the Free Worlds League and their fellow Clans.

Clan Nova Cat - Although they have conquered no worlds directly and only sent a token force to New Sagan, the Nova Cat forces are in parlous state, being bled through a thousand minor attacks as they try to pacify the remaining Taurian worlds. Faced with guerilla warfare, the Cats are attempting restraint to prove that they are different from the Smoke Jaguars. Thus far this has not been a successful policy and garrison units are taking fearful casualties.

Clan Smoke Jaguar - no Clan is as reviled by either side of the Invasion as that of the Smoke Jaguars. Over a course of twelve months, their touman took sixty-percent losses fighting the Taurian Concordat with brutality escalating from nuclear attacks on warships by the Taurians to the point of the Jaguars unleashing orbital bombardment pre-emptively on populated areas. Their homeworld holdings were absorbed by Clan Star Adder but in the Inner Sphere Clan Nova Cat all but eradicated Smoke Jaguar warriors and civilians alike.

Clan Steel Viper - consistently the slowest of the Clans to advance, the Steel Vipers were nonetheless pitted against elements of the strongest military in the Inner Sphere, which seemed largely unable to stop them. With their flanks largely protected, the Steel Vipers main problem is recovering from their losses on New Sagan.

Clan Wolf - undoubtedly the most successful of the invading Clans, having conquered the largest occupation zone and secured the only victory on New Sagan, Clan Wolf stands in a dominant position backed by the Warden Clans. Given their relatively short border with the Inner Sphere, it is likely that the Wolves will seek to expand their invasion zone at the expense of their long term adversaries in Clan Jade Falcon.

Capellan Confederation - shattered by the juggernaut of the Federated Commonwealth twenty years ago, the Capellans could not resist the Clans despite many units fighting bravely. The two worlds that remain independent have joined the St Ives Compact following the demise of Romano Liao.

Federated Commonwealth - a lesser state would be reeling under the loss of more than fifty worlds and a dozen worlds but the Federated Commonwealth has barely shaken and regiments are flooding towards the new border. However, the death of Marshal of Armies Morgan Hasek-Davion and loss of the March Capital New Syrtis has left local military command in no state to contemplate a counteroffensive.

Free Worlds League - the loss of two major provinces, shattering of two others and conquest of dozens of minor provinces has shaken the Free Worlds League. Captain-General Marik requested, and was granted, extraordinary authority to respond to the threat. By stripping other borders, he has reinforced worlds neighbouring the Clans and has authorised a massive military build up, partly financed by aid from the Federated Commonwealth. The unmentioned price for this was the marriage in June 3052 of Isis Marik to Victor Steiner-Davion, heralding a future merger of the Free Worlds League into the Federated Commonwealth.

Magistracy of Canopus - while a shattered fragment of what once was, the Magistracy endures. The Magestrix and her immediate family escaped from the Jade Falcons and the remaining worlds were spared by little more than Leo Showers wish to avoid examination of his own Clan's progress. The remaining worlds are as concerned about beating off pirate attacks and the ambitions of their Marian neighbours as they are about the Clans.

St Ives Compact - the St Ives Compact was almost completely overrun by Clan Ghost Bear and Clan Steel Viper. The remaining worlds are still holding out under the leadership of Candace Liao but their dependence on the Federated Commonwealth has been underscored.

Taurian Concordat - essentially annihilated, the Taurians take no satisfaction in the downfall of their conquerers. They went down fighting and in the process expended a nuclear and chemical arsenal that had few equals. A few colonies have escaped attantion so far and Clan Nova Cat is attemping restoration but the resources required are crippling and hatred for the Clans as a whole is hardly lower than that for Smoke Jaguars.
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Takiro

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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2011, 01:22:10 PM »

Nice, I had the pivotal battle on Yunnah in another scenario.
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Blacknova

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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2011, 06:37:11 PM »

Are you planning on developing this one, or is it more of a brief intellectual examination?
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2011, 09:45:32 PM »

My only issue is with your conquest of the Taurian Concordat. I don't see the Smoke Jaguars or even any two Clans being able to conquer/sack the Taurians. They're not to be trifled with.  ;)
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2011, 10:22:36 PM »

I have to disagree KM. I know that won't make the Taurian fans here happy but the Jags would conquer Taurus. Surprise would be a huge factor in this not to mention the Clan tech advantage over Periphery 3025 tech. They could nuke it up and the Clans would forget their honor codes using warships to their advantage.

Tit for tat. Yeah they'd give account of themselves. Sure nukem if ya gotta em but in the end Taurus would fall. I don't think the entire Concordat would conquered because it would distract from the main goal of conquering Terra. Some kind of vengeful rump state would remain. Significantly the InnerSphere would also be made aware of the Clan advance before the 1st Wave unlike the canon version.
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Blacknova

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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2011, 10:40:11 PM »

I think that the Concordat would be a Blood Bath.  It took the Successor states 15 years in the reunification war and the SLDF many years during the periphery revolt at the end of the Star League to finaly humble Taurus.

One things the Clans do not have is numbers on the ground and the Taurians would turn that corridor into a horror.  Millions would be massacred on the ground and from orbit, but the Taurians human waves and nuclear weapons would gut the Jaguar Touman.

The Jaguars and Concordat would amount to perfect storm of mutual atrocity, even after the intial suprise of the invasion was taken into account.
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2011, 11:13:46 PM »

I have to disagree KM. I know that won't make the Taurian fans here happy but the Jags would conquer Taurus. Surprise would be a huge factor in this not to mention the Clan tech advantage over Periphery 3025 tech. They could nuke it up and the Clans would forget their honor codes using warships to their advantage.

Tit for tat. Yeah they'd give account of themselves. Sure nukem if ya gotta em but in the end Taurus would fall. I don't think the entire Concordat would conquered because it would distract from the main goal of conquering Terra. Some kind of vengeful rump state would remain. Significantly the InnerSphere would also be made aware of the Clan advance before the 1st Wave unlike the canon version.

Totally disagree here.

For one, the Concordat would not be surprised by the time the Jaguars even got within two jumps of Taurus. Remember, the Clans are not a "bypass worlds for a capital kind of group." They'd start with the first TC worlds they came in contact with and then move forward (just like the canon invasion) working their way towards Taurus. Sure the first couple of TC worlds would lose their defense forces quickly, but Clan advances would stall almost as quickly as they started - the Taurians are notorious badgers. They defend their homes with a zealotry that no Successor State, save maybe the Capellan Confederation can match.

Try to keep in mind that the canon planets invaded by the Clans were rarely hotbeds of resistance. When they were, the Clans had to allocate precious resources to hunting them down - slowing the invasion in some case. Now most of these resistance groups were survivors of the original defense forces, i.e. soldiers, not the entirely planetary population. In the one case where a planetary population went berserk, Clan Smoke Jaguar had to result to planetary bombardment.

Sure, that tactic might work against a defenseless world and maybe on the first couple of TC planets conquered, but honestly, anything after the first wave is going to be the last. Taurians will smuggle Nuke, Chem, you name in preparation for an assault. Their defense forces will attack with reckless abandon while their citizens take the field strapped to improvised satchel charges. Second and maybe third wave Clan assaults would likely ruin the attacking Clan - let alone actually making it all the way to the Cluster (it's space defenses) and Taurus.

Nope, the Concordat circa 3049 is a death sentence for anyone trying to take it. Just look at how difficult it is to dislodge the TC from the worlds they invaded in the FedSuns during the Jihad? And those were only "historically" theirs, but hadn't been in reality for over 400+ years!

Even if the Clans agreed to orbital bombardment it still wouldn't save them. Plus, destroying the worlds they aim to conquer weakens the Clan involved. They expend valuable resource for zero return? Conquered Planets = Resources. Glassed over Planets = Nada. That doesn't make much sense to the frugal Clans. Conquest is one thing, but to do so and knowingly destroy your Clan in the process seems downright stupid.

Like I said, after the second, maybe third wave of assault any Clan in the TC is dead in the water. Literally.   
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drakensis

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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2011, 04:30:30 AM »

I may flesh this out in more detail once I finish Riding the Dragon. I do have a rough map of invasion waves and so forth.

The Taurian issue is a contentious one.

My feeling is that the first few planets fell quickly and easily - these being those with populations in the tens of thousands. Then the Smoke Jaguars hit the first population centre and more credible Taurian Defense Force units. The Jaguars get the nasty encounter with Taurian nukes in space and that the civilians are not quietly surrendering. Still, the garrison units will handle it, right? Frontline forces move on to the next wave.

The garrison units do NOT handle it. Unless you consider rampaging through civilian areas shooting at everything that moves until you get swarmed under to be handling an insurrection. This leads to a Turtle Bay situation: cities that resist, which is pretty much all of them, suffer orbital bombardment and surviving Taurians take to the hills.

The Smoke Jaguars still haven't reached Flanagan's Nebula but attempts to stop them have led to the Aerospace forces of the TDF taking shattering losses, the Army being pretty battered and several more worlds falling to the Jaguars who are just beginning to realise that they don't have enough garrison units and send word back to the homeworlds for reinforcements.

At this point the FedCom is aware that the Taurians are getting rolled and start moving troops into the general area. The other Clans are aware that the Jaguars are running into trouble - they expected them to be going into the Capellan March by now. And then the Taurians learn what happened on worlds that have been conquered.

The Taurian Navy goes fortress around Flanagan's Nebula and the Protector authorises nuclear and chemical weapon use against the next wave. The next wave, which is mostly hitting the Flanagan nebula worlds has to fight its way past the Taurian Navy gunships, remaining Aerospace fighters and volunteers in hastily converted dropships and small craft. Several warships and dropships are lost just getting to the target planets. And then they reach dropzones and once they hit soil, the Taurians start lobbing nukes at the sites, along with chemical warheads. Not all get through - the Smoke Jaguars do have air superiority - but enough do. Half-dead Clan Warriors who know that this is their final battle storm out of landing zones on a bloody rampage through Taurian defenders. Orbital bombardment of defensive positions break open Taurian lines and the smarter Taurians head out into the wild where their pursuers can be nuked again. Less smart Taurians head into cities to protect them and the Jaguars follow them.

Roughly a third of the entire Smoke Jaguar invasion force is dead or dying and they've just had their worst suspicions about the barbaric spheroids (just imagine how Taurians feel about being called that). Meanwhile the Taurians have had a very nasty picture of the Smoke Jaguars verified in blood. Taurian refugees are running to the Federated Commonwealth, who are being hit by Clan Steel Viper, and the reports are enough to have the AFFC praying that they only have to fight the Vipers and not the Jaguars. The Jaguars switch to a policy of eradicating any resistance and the Taurians will not stop resisting even when, using their own and later captured Taurian warheads, the Smoke Jaguars make 'nuclear examples' of towns and cities.

In space, the Smoke Jaguar warships are waging a losing war to wipe out hidden bases in the asteroid belts and to safely convoy their best remaining units to the remaining worlds of the Hyades Union. The Smoke Jaguars are irate to say the least so these invasions start with copious use of nukes to blast away anything potentially hostile on their flight path; then nuclear bombardment of military bases and 'clean' orbtial strikes on cities to try to deter resistance before troops are landed. None of which stops thousands of Taurian infantry rushing Smoke Jaguar dropzones with every weapon they have, whether there is battlemech or armoured support or not.

Finally satisfied that they are making progress, the Jaguars declare victory and prepare to move up to the remaining Perditon worlds to conquer them as well. At this point the Grand Council gets a picture of exactly what is going on and there is much losing of shit. Ulric Kerensky goes Vlad on Leo Showers and Clan Nova Cat is pulled out of reserve with orders to chase down the Smoke Jaguar touman and stop them, leading to a three way war between Taurians, Nova Cats and Smoke Jaguars that pretty much everyone loses.
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Blacknova

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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2011, 07:40:16 AM »

I like your thoughts on the way this war would go down, much like the Eastern Front with nukes and chemicals with no quater asked or given.  A truely nightmare scanario.
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2011, 09:19:17 AM »

Much better. I still wonder about the time your allocating to this scenario. I feel like it might be rushed in order to maintain some semi-balance or proximity to the original invasion. Either way, invading the Concordat is a mess! You've certainly painted that picture well! 
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2011, 10:32:21 AM »


Sure, that tactic might work against a defenseless world and maybe on the first couple of TC planets conquered, but honestly, anything after the first wave is going to be the last. Taurians will smuggle Nuke, Chem, you name in preparation for an assault. Their defense forces will attack with reckless abandon while their citizens take the field strapped to improvised satchel charges. Second and maybe third wave Clan assaults would likely ruin the attacking Clan - let alone actually making it all the way to the Cluster (it's space defenses) and Taurus.
 


Also keep in mind that in the 3040s, unlike every other power in the IS or periphery, the TC has no issue destroying jumpships - I refer to the Landmark incident of 3047 when the TC destroyed an FS jumpship that misjumped into the Landmark system.  When the clans come the first thing the TC will do is begin attacking jumpships with either aerospace fighters or taking a page from history (hey the Taurians remember their history so they should be allowed to use it) fire ships- shuttles packed with explosives that ram into the enemy vessels.  Even if they suffer huge losses in these efforts the damage they do will be stunning- remember the clans are at the end of a 1 year logistical trail- it will take a huge amount of time to replace those losses- it would take about a year for replacements to arrive- longer if they have to be constructed first.  With the loss of so many jumpships the clans will find it hard to move invasion forces, reinforcements, even supplies, which will greatly slow up their advance.  Sure you can have a whole galaxy on Sterope but that doesn't do you much good if you don't have the jumpships to move them to Taurus, New Vandenberg or any other world.   just because the clans chose to ignore logistics does not mean that it doesn't apply to them.
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2011, 01:13:54 PM »

To build on what Irose said, outside of Clan Wolf, the Invading Clans were notorious with shorting their original invasion supplies. They were not setup for a war of attrition, which the Taurians historically, excel at. Instead, the Invading Clans, trusting in their superior weapons and warriors were organized for lightening strikes, single battles and short term conflicts - very much reminiscent of the Clan's Trial-style warfare. Sure the flexibility of the OmniMech lends a little more road to a Clan Cluster, but that only counts for so much. Destroy, or significantly damage the fragile JumpShip train that either came with the original invading Galaxies and the Galaxy that Irose mentioned is stuck on Sterope will likely succumb to the Concordat, or drop way below combat effectiveness in a relatively short period of time. 
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2011, 02:17:38 PM »

I have the Smoke Jaguars fighting in the Concordat for a full year. Now honestly, I think if the conflict went on longer than that, the Jaguars would lose for the reasons Knightmare states. But if it was shorter it would have to be because the Jaguars won. The Taurians play to a long war, the Jaguars to a short one and where they meet... is armageddon.
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2011, 05:06:05 PM »

I have the Smoke Jaguars fighting in the Concordat for a full year. Now honestly, I think if the conflict went on longer than that, the Jaguars would lose for the reasons Knightmare states. But if it was shorter it would have to be because the Jaguars won. The Taurians play to a long war, the Jaguars to a short one and where they meet... is armageddon.

I doubt their logistics would support them for 6 months, much less a year- just look at the battle on Tukayyid against C*- in 20 days the ComGuards managed to exhaust most of the clans logistic support.  If the TC managed to inflict even moderate damage on the clans jumpships and supply train the clans are going to be hurting in only a few months. 

And the other factor is that the TC will not allow any supplies to fall into the Clans hands- they would sooner burn their crops and blow up their factories then let the Clans have them.  Hell if the TC did let any foodstuffs fall into the clans hands my first thought would be that they are poisoned. 

And if the Clans do try to pull an Edo Bay on the TC that is only going to enrage the Taurians even more.  Rather then facing 1 Tyra Miraborg, the clans will be facing hundreds or even thousands.  Every ship that can fly will be packed with nukes and explosives and  well there will be a lot of dead clan jumpships and warships. 

Keep in mind, during the reunification war the TC managed to hold off the SLDF for 20 years- even with most of it's fleet having been destroyed in 2581- the TDF held on until 2596- Hell it took the SLDF 4 years to get through Flanagan's Nebula to the worlds of the Hyades Cluster.  During the Uprisings the periphery rebels managed to destroy over 1/3 of the SLDF forces that fought in the campaign.  There's no reason to think the TC would any less zealous in it's defense of the Concordat against the clans and unlike the SLDF, the clans lack the sheer numbers of the SLDF which allowed it absorb such losses.
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Re: Kerensky Turned Right (AU)
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2011, 05:42:24 PM »

The TDF is in no sense as powerful a force in the 3050s as it was in the 2600s. Other than their willingness to go instasun, as one admirer of them puts it, they're not really any more powerful militarily than the FRR.

And lets give the Smoke Jaguars their due: if there's one thing they CAN do, it's fight.
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