Wouldn't their intelligence be woefully incomplete. They have basic information they gathered over a hundred years ago when they first raised the call for the invasion.
Back to 3005 and how this would play out.
Draconis CombineTakashi has just has become Coordinator after his fathers assassination.
From Sarna
In 3004, Hohiro Kurita was assassinated by one of the Otomo, a member of the Tyr Resistance Movement from the Rasalhague Military District. Takashi had the assassin executed immediately, an act that, combined with his leadership of the Otomo at the time of the assassination, led to rumors that he was culpable in the murder. The ISF informed the new Coordinator who was enraged. He used the Otomo to round up those he suspected of undermining his credibility, bringing them to Unity Palace. Once they were gathered he accused them of undermining the state, and then immediately executed them on the grounds.
Takashi did loosen the controls on the citizenry however, once his purge of opposition was completed. He repealed measures put in place by his father giving the people more freedoms.
Given the failures of the military under his father's rule he made changes in the first years of his reign. He focused on making the military a competitive place, with each commander competing among themselves. One way that he encouraged this competition was by replacing the front commanders with a system of having each military district's Warlord control the local forces. These changes all proved successful
I would assume the Dragon is at one of its weaker points in its history then based off this summary. With the recent purges morale is at a low point and everyone is looking over their shoulders wondering if they or someone they know will be accused next.
If Luthien falls quickly with Takashi dying Theodore would be only 8 or 9 Isoroku Kurita Takashi's nephew would be 12.
Marcus Kurita (Takashi's first cousin) Warlord of the Rasalhague Military District might take over if he lived himself vs whichever Clan was coming down that corridor. Akiro Kurita his sibling died in 3002 and Elija Kurita whom we know nothing about besides they are on the Kurita family tree.
Lyran CommonwealthOperation Concentrated Weakness
Clearly, Archon Alessandro had to take action. The plan he devised in 3002, Operation Concentrated Weakness, pulled troops from deep within the Commonwealth, massing them on the border with the Free Worlds League. The goal was to create an invincible wall of force that could repel any invasion or raid from House Marik. The cost was a virtually undefended interior, should an attacking force strike far past the borders. This was somewhat similar to a strategem employed by Archon Marcus Steiner during the Second Succession War.[1] [4] Eventually, it would allow the Commonwealth to launch a major assault against House Marik.
The strategy had initial successes, repulsing attacks at Loric and Solaris VII.
Unfortunately, there were many consequences this strategy had for the Commonwealth. There was great opposition and discontent with the plan among the Estates General, further sapping the Archon's political capital. Even many in the LCAF command expressed their doubts. [1] [4] Many worlds, stripped of their normal garrisons, experienced unrest and protests. [1]
The worst came in 3006, when Captain-General Janos Marik ordered deep raid attacks on several important Lyran worlds far from their border. The worlds of Bolan, Pollux and Coventry, among others, were all attacked, with the Coventry Metal Works BattleMech factory taking damage from the 4th Regulan Hussars, [4] a unit virtually unknown that far inside Lyran space. The effects on the military and citizenry was devastating.
This makes us think the Lyran forces would be way out of position for the initial attacks. Rolling over what garrisons remain. It would allow for a possible eventual counter attack a later point but would it be too little to late to save the realm?
Katrina and Morgan being captured by the Clans especially as the Steiner Bloodname like Takiro said is with Cloud Cobra. Morgan hasn't even met Salome yet for her connection to the Clans. Arthur Luvon whom is a Loki agent would be an interesting thing as well for the Clans to interrogate.
