Finally scrolled through this...
While you've already posted a basic timeline, keep in mind that DeChavilier was a bit of a verbal hothead and of action. Only his loyalty to Kerensky kept the man from just executing what he saw was the right thing to do. He was known for making relatively rash suggestions and other off hand comments as a way to vent his frustrations, but never acted without first convincing Kerensky. For example, DeChavilier made the off hand remark that SLDF deserters should be shot, or that the SLDF should just find some world to sit and wait on while the Great Houses beat each other to snot. Not much, but DeChavilier's comment could be the genesis of the Exodus, and his comment to execute deserters, a prelude to a hard crackdown on House recruiting efforts.
While it might not translate into much—context is important—depending on when Kerensky is removed from control you could very well see a SLDF civil war, or full support of Blake's Hegemony reconstruction.
Remember, DeChavilier is also the guy who suggested to Blake that he should tax the Great Houses via transmission hikes to help pay for the Hegemony's relief and reconstruction effort. A lot of how the SLDF breaks apart during the 2779-2784 time frame would depend on when Kerensky dies, how he passes and how DeChavilier responds to the same challenges Kerensky faced.
DeChavilier was rock. He was stoic, thoughtful and unstoppable, but he he also needed the temperament of Kerensky. Just as Kerensky needed him to force his musings into action. They were ying and yang in a lot of ways, so letting one run rampant over the other is an interesting exercise in rolling the dice.
Try killing off Kerensky before he's stripped of his Protectorship or immediately afterwards, or after his decision to Exodus, but before telling the rest of the SLDF. Then placed DeChavilier in the hot seat...
Interesting stuff.
