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General BattleTech => Alternate Universe => Topic started by: Takiro on January 14, 2012, 11:13:01 PM

Title: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 14, 2012, 11:13:01 PM
As the Federated Commonwealth offensive falters - Katrina Steiner stricken with terminal illness refuses to watch her dream die. Summoning her remaining strength the Archon-Emeritus gathers a taskforce of her very best forces to strike at the very heart of the Combine, Luthien. In a war to end all wars the Black Pearl falls to the Steiner-Davion juggernaut at the cost of its creator collapsing the unified Draconis defense. The death of the Coordinator and the capture of the Gunji no Karnei result in the eventual surrender of the Combine even though some die hards continue to resist FedCom occupation.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 15, 2012, 03:42:41 AM
Is this plausible?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 15, 2012, 03:44:07 AM
Would a more plausible outcome be Hanse calling Theodre's bluff and taking 50+ border worlds before peace kicks in the the Combine is left as little more than a weakend realm.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 15, 2012, 08:08:39 AM
Blacknova is correct, Hanse simply calling Theodore's bluff would be more plausible but I liked Katrina going out in a blaze of glory. So why can't we have both leading to a complete collapse of the Combine?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Gabriel on January 15, 2012, 09:28:27 AM
Hmmm Both have their appeal.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 15, 2012, 04:39:08 PM
She would need a bit of assistance, as she was in a bad way from cancer at that stage.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: drakensis on January 15, 2012, 04:51:20 PM
Perhaps it would be simpler to combined the two:

Katrina decides to enter one more battle and does so alongside Morgan Kell and the Kell Hounds. Deployed into the Draconis March they arrive on Xhosa VII in August 3039 and proceed to do a number of unpleasent things to the Ryuken-go battalions there, including capturing Theodore Kurita (although Katrina Steiner dies in action, something not announced at the time). The loss of the Kanrei doesn't cause the DCMS to crumble but it does affect their cohesion and seriously boosts AFFC morale. On that basis Hanse decides to press his luck... and it works out for him. Scores of DCMS forces are forced into hasty retreats or over-run as the AFFC continues to advance.

A third wave of attacks leaves pockets of DCMS regiments still resisting in Dieron while pushing the functional frontline to Buckminster, Benjamin, Iruzun, Matsuida and Kazenjoy. With the succession shaky (Hehiro is barely old enough IIRC), the Combine has little choice but to accept a peace that functionally surrenders most of Kaznejoy, Matsuida, Iruzun and Proserpina Prefectures as well as all of Dieron District. As a face-saver for Takashi (since the AFFC will be rather stretched to garrison all these worlds and subdue the various stubborn holdouts, Hanse agrees to relinquish the handful of worlds in the Benjamin District that were taken.

While the Combine remains largely intact and appears healthy on the map, it's been stripped of several key industrial worlds and the DCMS is a hollow shell of its former glory. Hanse can afford to wait a few years and consolidate before he has to decide if he wants to finish off the Combine, finish off the Confederation or smash the Free Worlds League in a similar fashion.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 15, 2012, 06:27:02 PM
What he said, especially so in regards to the ongoing campaigns.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 16, 2012, 03:43:35 PM
I was watching the Shootist with John Wayne when I saw a lot of FedCom calls the Combine's bluff in the War of 3039. So I thought of Katrina Steiner refusing to wait for death but rather plunging into a full scale assault of Luthien (with the Kell Hounds and a few other select regiments of volunteers) to fulfill her life's work. To that end I don't want to compromise on the radical attack into the heart of the enemy and to hell with the consequences. However that being said yours is a more reasonable course of action drakensis. Except I wanted to fling that out the window and go for broke with Katrina's action. [Funny how this would somewhat mirror Frederick Steiner's actions and I'm thinking that Hanse would follow it up with nothing less than finishing blows to the Dragon]. That being said what do see happening realistically if such an assault went down on Luthien? Which regiments participate in the battle? I think the Combine would fall in on itself with factions trying to liberate Luthien and various Warlords attempting to setup their own zone of control.

Oh and new rule - Don't jump ahead of me yet to the Clan invasion!
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 16, 2012, 04:29:06 PM
My problem is that even the Clans didn't manage to break Luthien, so House Steiner.

However, I read today something about the Swiss pikemen and I thought that they were like House Steiner: unstoppable thanks to the shock effect (be it because of cohesion/pikes or because of Assault 'Mech) if they had the surprise effect.
So perhaps, it could work but Hanse would need to help it a little by drawing more and more forces against him.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 16, 2012, 04:40:56 PM
Well, knowing Katrina, she would want the units to ba able to make it back, I would not be suprised if her task force came in through the Alberio Prefecture, after skirting the FRR, minimising the chance of detection.

Such a knockout blow would need to contain troops from all sectors of the realm, firstly to make it an AFFC action, not an LCAF or AFFS one.

Looking at spare units in the Lyran Commonwealth in Historical:3039, this what I would send in, leaving already assigned units alone, so as not to generate suspicion from the DCMS:

UNIT (Experience/Reliability/Equipment Rating/Post in 3038)

20th Avalon Hussars RCT (Vet/Fan/A/Freedom)
6th Crucis Lancers RCT (Vet/Rel/A/Loburg)
4th Deneb Light Cavalry RCT (Reg/Rel/A/Alcor)

4th Donegal Guards RCT (Vet/Rel/B/Chateau)
14th Donegal Guards RCT (Reg/Rel/A/CMO 26)
6th Lyran Guards RCT (Elite/Rel/A/Althastan)
2nd Royal Guards RCT (Reg/Fan/A/Tharkad)

The Bad Dream (Vet/Rel/A/Newtown Square)
3rd/12th Star Guards (Vet/Rel/A/Icar)

Approx Force: 9 Mech Regiments, 15 Aerospace Wings, 21 Armoured Regiments, 35 Infantry Regiments

Facing them on Luthien would be:

UNIT (Experience/Reliability/Equipment Rating/Post in 3038)

1st Sword of Light (Vet/Fan/A/Luthien)
7th Sword of Light (Vet/Fan/A/Luthien)
Otomo (Elite/Fan/A/Luthien)
Dragons Claws (Elite/Fan/A/Luthiem) - They may have been available at this time.

These additional units are based on what is presented in Luthien.

3rd Aerospace Wing (Vet)
7th Aerospace Wing (vet)
Black Dragons Aerospace Wing (Vet)

6th DEST (Elite)

These units are likely armour and infantry
12th Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
54th Luthien Defence Regiment (Grn)
96th Luthien Defence Regiment (Vet)
122nd Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
143rd Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
178th Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
191st Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
201st Luthien Defence Regiment (Reg)
7th Imperial City Militia (Reg)

1st Amori Militia (Reg) - Combined arms battalion
Luthien Armour Works Security Company (Reg)

Anti-Mech Infantry Regiments
1st Omega Regiment (Vet)
2nd Omega Regiment (Reg)

Approx Force: 5 Mech Regiments, 7 Aerospace Wings, 5 Armoured Regiments, 20+ Infantry Regiments

If I was the AFFC, I'd also toss in a couple of Assault DropShip wings and an Independent Aerowing or three.

It would be a savage battle and the AFFC would want to leave after a month of dismanteling DCMS units and infrastructure as by that time Alshain and Pesht units would start to arrive.  I don't think the task force could hold the world, but they could wreck it and cop 50% casualities doing it.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 16, 2012, 05:15:02 PM
Excellent! Love your points Ice and I'm thinking the Dragon might be over extended at the time. Perhaps we can even look at the historical raid of Luthien by the Tamar Tigers and the LCS Nightwind circa 1st Succession War. Blacknova those suggestions are fantastic (how about Brochi's Cluster for a staging area?) and the unit breakdown is great. I was thinking of units that have special ties to Katrina in some way or another. The Kell Hounds are a must in this offensive - I'll be looking for their position. My vision of the Taskforce was at least a five BattleMech regimental core. Two of these regiments were mercenaries - Kell Hounds. One is a Lyran. The 2nd Royal Guards is good of course since she was the Archon but I'm also looking for units she commanded as well. Need a Davion unit to volunteer and a FedCom RCT if available. Although the units you present as available are fairly balanced. Also should we have a Red Corsair angle for the operation. In regards to DCMS defenses I'm thinking they may be spread thinner than listed but could we at the verge of success have a twist of fate. Could the local ComGuards intervene on behalf of the Dragon?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 16, 2012, 05:21:34 PM
The Kell Houds Regiment was on Summer, but not posted to active duty, so an elite regiment works well.

The FC-RCT's are all in the Sarna March, so I left them out of it, focusing only on the Lyran state command to reduce red flags for the DCMS.

As it is, although the AFFC has a 2:1 ratio, that is the absolute minimum I would recommend, due to the DCMS's more experinced line units and fanatical defence of the homeworld. Additionaly. local knowledge would play a part.  Also important is the lack of resupply for the AFFC taskforce, hance why a short campaign would be important.

In the end, you universe, your call though, this is just my own point of view based on our game's big battle results.  Battle where the attacker has less than a 3:1 overall advantage bog down to nothing but attirition, so the number and specific units I listed were designed to prevent that from happening.

As to Brochi's cluster, the abondoned world of Ulsan is 35LY North West of Luthien as well and could be a better option close to the capital.  Perhaps launch the strike from Ulsan, hit Luthien, leave Luthien and scatter, raiding as they go and regroup in Brochis for the run home?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 16, 2012, 09:27:25 PM
Did some quicky research from the HSSB and it appears that the 15th Lyran Guards were commanded by Colonel Katrina Steiner who helped thwart the 10th attack on Hesperus and later participated in the unsuccessful assault on Kalidasa. Also she bought the Star Guards back to the Lyran Commonwealth.

I have to check the Luthien garrison but is there anyway we can dilute it? Thinking like a pirate here. Can we probe other targets forcing the Luthien garrison to send reinforcements to other systems??

Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 16, 2012, 09:48:18 PM
I think the opposite would happen, the Black Pearl is too important.  Only Chatham, Avon, Irece and Pesht are viable, and you could hit those on the way back, after thier garrisons come tearing ass over to support Luthien.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 16, 2012, 10:06:21 PM
Yeah that is what I was thinking. On the way back? I think I should describe this as more of Huntress like scenario. U are going there to stay or die.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: drakensis on January 17, 2012, 01:08:06 AM
Two of these regiments were mercenaries - Kell Hounds.
At this time the Kell Hounds had only one regiment - the second was added after Katrina's death.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 17, 2012, 01:11:42 AM
Quite correct, thanks drak. Have to make them up somehow.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 17, 2012, 02:21:55 AM
Use the 3rd/12th Star Guards as already mentioned.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 17, 2012, 02:08:38 PM
You meant a suicide mission?
I prefer Blacknova's heavy raid as it makes more sense but it could still be a suicide as I doubt any of these units would make it to the borders (revenge, revenge, revenge).

The question is how much damage to Luthien, the other planets and the Kuritan units is considered enough to call this a victory.

We can have a scenario like this:
DC units are spread too thin.
AFFS Task Force strike Luthien and stay there for xxx
AFFS Task Force split and leave with angry Kuritans ready to kill them.
As more and more Kuritan units are allowed to hunt and destroy the Task Force, the front line units from the AFFS make one more push that combined with the Coordinator death, the damage on Luthien and other key words puts the Draconis Combine out of the war.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 17, 2012, 03:36:46 PM
Control is going to be an issue Ice. Using the Jihad as an example, once central control on Luthien is broken, command authority can be a major problem. If there's a strong enough (and loyal enough) Warlord present he may be able to organize and more importantly, rein in the DCMS.

However, the loss of Luthien, even briefly will be a super hard pill to swallow. I can guarantee more than one DCMS unit will go "rogue" and strike out immediately for the Federated Commonwealth. Also keep in mind the Duke Ricol (if I remember correctly) is still present in the DCMS High Command. Meaning, there's enough conflict among the Warlords of 3039 that the loss of the Coordinator and his son might realistically break apart the Draconis Combine. A power vacuum like that is hard to ignore.

Worse case you have DCMS units going bezerk when they shouldn't and more than one Warlord operating independently. This could result in unnecessary losses to an already hurt DCMS, multiple and conflicting peace treaties, fracturing of the DC entirely, etc. If things got bad enough, expect the FRR to usurp a few worlds while the roof caves in.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 17, 2012, 04:25:56 PM
Operation Yellow Bird as I'm calling it is quite simply designed as a "kill shot" to the Draconis Combine. Katrina Steiner is leading this suicidal / death or glory attack similar in nature to what happened on Huntress to the Smoke Jaguars. Phase one would be to penetrate the formidable defenses of the Dragon to eliminate the Coordinator. Jump in and drop right on the Imperial City with the goal of killing Takashi along with as much of the hierarchy of the Kuritas as possible. Phase two would see the assault forces remain on planet drawing as many DCMS units to them as possible and out of position. Phase three (best case scenario) would see a substantial relief force trap a significant number of Draconis warriors on planet for their eventual elimination. It would be a bloodbath yes but the goal is the complete destruction of the FedCom's greatest adversary.

How will ComStar intervene? They would most certainly try to tip of the Dragon as to the details of the Operation but more importantly would the ComGuards on world be ordered to fight the FC Taskforce?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 17, 2012, 04:36:07 PM
They could claim a Sarna type inceident and weigh in.  However, there is no Division stationed on Luthien, due to past dissagreements, so the ComStar force on world would be limited.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: SSJGohan3972 on January 17, 2012, 04:56:26 PM
They could claim a Sarna type inceident and weigh in.  However, there is no Division stationed on Luthien, due to past dissagreements, so the ComStar force on world would be limited.


On a larger scale I would imagine ComStar would use the same incident to interdict the entire Federated Commonwealth, refusing to lift the interdiction (even with Black Box technology) the FedCom tries to force their way into an HPG station somewhere (or ComStar again stages it) and presto! FedCom v. ComStar in a full-scale war.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 17, 2012, 05:28:08 PM
They could claim a Sarna type inceident and weigh in.  However, there is no Division stationed on Luthien, due to past dissagreements, so the ComStar force on world would be limited.


On a larger scale I would imagine ComStar would use the same incident to interdict the entire Federated Commonwealth, refusing to lift the interdiction (even with Black Box technology) the FedCom tries to force their way into an HPG station somewhere (or ComStar again stages it) and presto! FedCom v. ComStar in a full-scale war.

That would go exceedingly poor for ComStar, as Operation Scorpion showcased. A spread-out ComGuard is a weak ComGuard. ComStar's best chance to inflict the most damage at that point would be to unleash ROM, not the ComGuard.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: SSJGohan3972 on January 17, 2012, 10:20:50 PM
Just because Waterly messed it up with Scorpion doesn't mean it can't work. First you torch every HPG station throughout the FedCom then you withdraw to around Terra and start resetting up the Terran Hegemony. FWL and DC as allies (and maybe the CapCon but they're really a sidethought in 3039). This does two things, 1 you're taking mostly FedCom worlds (really mostly former CC worlds, maybe skirt DC and FWL worlds to keep them as allies) and splitting the FedCom in half. A permanent interdiction would really hurt the FedCom regardless of the blackbox technology (torching the HPGs would help this along).

Now on the other hand I think it would turn out much like the Jihad were eventually the ComStar Protectorate (read Blake Protectorate) would collapse under a united Inner Sphere but I really see it as the next step after the succession wars that the Clan Invasion just set back 20 years or so.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 18, 2012, 12:13:07 AM
How long do you think it would take ComStar to get the Guard together and do you think Davion wouldn't notice? One of the reasons Scorpion failed is because Hanse caught wind of what ComStar was up to and because the Guards didn't have a massed presence in the Occupation Zone. Come 3039 the Guard is still dispersed thought the Inner Sphere. Consolidating them won't go unnoticed, and will likely tip ComStar's hand in any event. The best and mostly likely recourse, or action undertaken by the Order would be to unleash ROM to hamper the FedCom's war effort.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: SSJGohan3972 on January 18, 2012, 12:19:49 AM
How long do you think it would take ComStar to get the Guard together and do you think Davion wouldn't notice? One of the reasons Scorpion failed is because Hanse caught wind of what ComStar was up to and because the Guards didn't have a massed presence in the Occupation Zone. Come 3039 the Guard is still dispersed thought the Inner Sphere. Consolidating them won't go unnoticed, and will likely tip ComStar's hand in any event. The best and mostly likely recourse, or action undertaken by the Order would be to unleash ROM to hamper the FedCom's war effort.

I'll grant that and like I say I think the whole thing would eventually go very badly for ComStar. Unleashing the more clandestine portions of their repertoire (ROM) would be the first thing they do but I really see them eventually engaging in a full scale military conflict. I'd imaging they would leave the majority of the ComGuards in place where they are to torch HPG stations throughout the FedCom while utilitzing the core of their armies to take former Terran Hegemony worlds (kinda like how the bulk of the ComGuards fought on Tukkayid but the rest were still in place throughout the Inner Sphere for scorpion. This would be a year or two after the attack on Luthien and unleashing of ROM when the Combine really starts to fall apart and the FedCom is way overstreached trying to garrison an additional 100+ worlds.

Keeping it more lowkey and just ROM vs. MIIO would be much better for ComStar in the long run but an all-out conflict would be fun I think :)
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 18, 2012, 10:23:47 AM
I think the real question that needs to be asked is why?

Why would ComStar opt for open conflict?

Until the Clans bluntly and directly claim Terra as their intended target ComStar hasn't been placed in a position where massed open conflict was necessary. I still don't see an assault on Luthien prompting such a response simply because better, more covert and more often used tools in ComStar's arsenal haven't been utilized first.

You gotta think like 3039 ComStar.

For one, they've never fought a pitched battle, or consolidated. The Guard has never really operated in large formations. ComStar has no real working industrial complex. (This is before the massive losses on Tukayyid, so most of Terra's factories are mothballed at this point.) Primary income for ComStar comes from their HPGs. Burning them would be akin to cutting their own throat. Abandoning the HPGs, or disabling the software should suffice. For one, operating the HPGs should be beyond the capability of everyone except Wolf's Dragoons, so its the technicians, and to a lesser extent, software that needs to be nullified...not the hardware. (For example, say ComStar did "win," they might have to replace all of those HPG sites. That's a ton of cash and resources. Outlay they'd have to provide after fighting a major war.)

But really, you have to return to the why? Why would ComStar go toe-to-toe with the Federated Commonwealth?

From a risk standpoint, open warfare prior to exhausting ComStar's other tools is paramount to suicide. Especially when you consider what an Interdiction, combined with a covert ROM war might accomplish instead. And these are operations directly against the Suns, and operations ComStar is intimately familiar with conducting. But honestly, when has ComStar ever relied solely on direct operations?...Before Scorpion, ComStar was all about pawns. Specifically, the other Successor States.

What if ComStar provided information, assets and other resources to the FWL & CC, or even the TC? Would they be able to entice them out of entropy? Perhaps, perhaps not, but its something ComStar would likely attempt prior to building a buffer state around Terra from the get go. Maybe ComStar will stage another performance act or two on a couple of FWL/CC worlds pointing fingers at the FedCom. It worked on Sarna in the Fourth after all.

The point is, ComStar's smart enough to exhaust what it's comfortable doing before opting to do something it's not when a final outcome, or direct threat is in doubt.

Now, if Hanse Davion declared his intention to reform the Star League after sacking Luthien by claiming Terra...while premature and possibly crazy, may earn him a response ComStar's not entirely comfortable doing, but shocked enough to use.   

Say, like some sort of armed, or more overt resistance.
 
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: SSJGohan3972 on January 18, 2012, 12:22:02 PM
You gotta think like 3039 ComStar.

I read this line an basically didn't need to read the rest of your post (I did but this really summed it up)

You're right, I'm thinking like a post-Clan Invasion ComStar (really WoB)
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 18, 2012, 03:11:36 PM
Killing father and son? This might be a bit too much.

Takiro, your Yellow Bird reminds me of Dien Bien Phu ;)
The problem I can see there is how do you supply the units on Luthien? Don't forget they will be harassed day and night.

And as for ComStar, in 3039, they are more indirect than direct in their answers and ways to deal with opponents.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 18, 2012, 07:21:16 PM
Who said anything about killing Tak or Theo? I mean, if they commit hari kari, so be it. But honestly, all you have to do is incapacitate or isolate the Coordinator and son from the rest of the DC and all hell is likely to break loose. We didn't see as much in the Jihad, but a similar base situation was created. Scroll back to 3039 and the major players in the DC then might not be as nice, or as loyal as Mr. Warlord New Samarkand.

That said, I'm not sure you have to remain on Luthien for long either. Not unless father or son is hiding on-world and you're looking to get the big capture. All you really have to do is conquer the place. Not wreck it, just conquer it and then leave before the "stuff" hits the fan. If it's all part of the master plan, this type of strategic withdrawal should play into your offensive operations elsewhere as an unbalanced and uncontrolled DCMS moves in too many "directions."

As for supply. Providing the units with enough supplies for a deep strike/planetary assault should go without saying. Long term occupation shouldn't even be on the table IMO. 
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 18, 2012, 08:01:25 PM
I agree, in and out, no ******* about.

I think Takiro mentioned the loss of Theo in battle and the strike aims at killing/capturing Takashi.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 18, 2012, 10:43:26 PM
I did but that is an interesting plan to capture the Dragon and draw his wrath where it isn't needed. How interesting...
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 19, 2012, 11:18:46 AM
I did but that is an interesting plan to capture the Dragon and draw his wrath where it isn't needed. How interesting...

I'm not sure capturing Takashi will do much good. If the old bugger is taken alive, don't expect him to last too long. The guy is likely to commit seppuku the second he has the opportunity to do so. Ritual suicide removes his piece from the playing board of DCMS honor. If anything, capturing Takashi will help the DC in the long run by giving them something to focus on. With Kurita still alive even the most "adventurous" Warlord might be hard pressed to exercise independence with the Coordinator and the entirety of the Combine's honor still redeemable.

Best case would be the death of Takashi in combat. With the Dragon and his son gone, it becomes a free for all among the Warlords. Win win for Hanse Davion.

Takashi's survival is a partial victory, since the Coordinator's rage at losing Luthien and his son might make him unpredictable, and therefore hurt the DC's war effort further. His survival could also just as easily hurt the FedCom's invasion, but with the DCMS already on the ropes, I think suicidal/rash action on the part of the Coordinator might result in some major mistakes and maybe even some sort of coup to prevent the complete destruction of the Combine by one of the aforementioned Warlords, ISF, etc.   

No, either Takashi dies in glorious battle during the planetary assault or gets away. If Takashi gets away and Theo dies, the Coordinator's rage might be the FedCom's best friend.

Capturing Takashi creates a rallying cry and focal point (in either the event of his survival or suicide I might add) the FedCom does not want to give the Draconis Combine. It's not just about the DCMS either. Remember, the Coordinator is the Dragon, the embodiment of the Combine. You want to see an upswing in insurrection, suicide attacks, etc., on Combine worlds? Capture the Coordinator and see what happens.

You only need to look to the Jihad to see how this would play out in the Combine. 

 
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 19, 2012, 01:49:18 PM
I'm not sure capturing Takashi will do much good. If the old bugger is taken alive, don't expect him to last too long. The guy is likely to commit seppuku the second he has the opportunity to do so. Ritual suicide removes his piece from the playing board of DCMS honor. If anything, capturing Takashi will help the DC in the long run by giving them something to focus on. With Kurita still alive even the most "adventurous" Warlord might be hard pressed to exercise independence with the Coordinator and the entirety of the Combine's honor still redeemable.

We saw this also during the Clans invasion.

All you really have to do is conquer the place. Not wreck it, just conquer it and then leave before the "stuff" hits the fan. If it's all part of the master plan, this type of strategic withdrawal should play into your offensive operations elsewhere as an unbalanced and uncontrolled DCMS moves in too many "directions."

I think Takiro's idea was to stay there and hit as many Kuritan units as possible.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 19, 2012, 02:56:29 PM
All you really have to do is conquer the place. Not wreck it, just conquer it and then leave before the "stuff" hits the fan. If it's all part of the master plan, this type of strategic withdrawal should play into your offensive operations elsewhere as an unbalanced and uncontrolled DCMS moves in too many "directions."

I think Takiro's idea was to stay there and hit as many Kuritan units as possible.

That would be a mistake. Staying on Luthien to "destroy" as many Kurita units as possible is akin to Wolf's Dragoons stand on Misery WITH an angry population. You saw what happened to the Dragoons right? And they selected a "relatively" neutral planet. Luthien is anything but neutral. I'd put good money on Luthien-based FedCom units suffering more losses from Draconis insurgents than in combat.

Better to draw them to a site of your choosing, closer to your supply, further from theirs and well away from any Combine civilians. Incidentally, depending on how bat-shit-crazy your assault on Luthien has made the DCMS, you might be able to destroy enraged Combine regiments one by one as they lash out into the FedCom.

Enticing targets invite a wonderful response from angry Samurai.

Remember, while you're waving the red flag on one side of the border, the other side is getting hammered by Davion RCTs.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 19, 2012, 10:51:40 PM
The original assault force would need to be reinforced as quickly as possible by the AFFC. Remember this all depends on the DCMS being over stretched and out of position in the first place.

Maybe I'm equating Luthien to Huntress too much. Luthien has much more of a populace that is more likely to take up arms against their attackers but the distance for a relief force is much less to cover.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 20, 2012, 03:11:31 PM
Well, at what point are you suggesting the assault take place? Early in the war, or at that moment when Hanse blinks?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 21, 2012, 12:03:38 PM
That would be a mistake. Staying on Luthien to "destroy" as many Kurita units as possible is akin to Wolf's Dragoons stand on Misery WITH an angry population. You saw what happened to the Dragoons right? And they selected a "relatively" neutral planet. Luthien is anything but neutral. I'd put good money on Luthien-based FedCom units suffering more losses from Draconis insurgents than in combat.

Better to draw them to a site of your choosing, closer to your supply, further from theirs and well away from any Combine civilians. Incidentally, depending on how bat-shit-crazy your assault on Luthien has made the DCMS, you might be able to destroy enraged Combine regiments one by one as they lash out into the FedCom.

Enticing targets invite a wonderful response from angry Samurai.

Remember, while you're waving the red flag on one side of the border, the other side is getting hammered by Davion RCTs.

I do agree but I am not the one making the plans here.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 21, 2012, 05:11:23 PM
If you are going to write a story about this, the thread makes a good basis for the High Commands discussion.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 22, 2012, 06:27:51 AM
Well, at what point are you suggesting the assault take place? Early in the war, or at that moment when Hanse blinks?

The assault would take place as the House Kurita overextended itself in the attempt to bluff the Federated Commonwealth. Word of its results would filter in as the High Command was deciding to proceed and how or withdraw and consolidate. 

If you are going to write a story about this, the thread makes a good basis for the High Commands discussion.

Well I don't know about how official this Operation would be. I mean Katrina can't exactly tell her family she is going off to die. Perhaps a council of friends who could pass it under the guise of something else.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 22, 2012, 12:30:29 PM
Knowing Katrina, she's likely to inform the High Command after she leaves Tharkad. She's also likely to ensure that her actions play into FedCom's assault in some fashion, so that her actions do more good than harm...likely based on her (and some other smart people's) assumptions, but helpful nevertheless.

The likely scenario being, "We'll hit Luthien, and then pull back this way. We know "these" FedCom units will likely move in here as a result, with "these" DC regiments coming in from here, here and here." Or something to that result.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on January 22, 2012, 04:43:41 PM
I think a strike of this size would require official, if secret, billing.  However, Katrina only joins the force the day it heads out of Lyran space, maybe having been there as an observer before hand.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Cestusrex on January 22, 2012, 07:04:53 PM
Sounds like a deep penetration, decapitation strike.  Come in hot, guns blazing stomping every DCMS unit in sight on the Black Pearl.  Take out the high command, savage as many DC units as possible, and then blast out of there before any help can arrive.  Takashi dies, Theo is captured.  You then hit the places abandoned by the DCMS units that have raced off to reinforce Luthien on the way out.  Hanse then starts hitting the boarder gobbling up worlds.  Then you send Theo back to the DC so you have someone to negotiate with instead a gang of Warlords and unit commanders running all over the place (ala Bismarck's move putting Napoleon III back in power after he had been captured at Metz and the Parisians responded by trying to create a new Republic to resist the Prussians during the Franco-Prussian War).  I don't see ComStar getting involved at all unless it looks like the DC will be completely absorbed by the FC or they hear someone say, "Hey, I wonder if Geneva is nice this time of year."  Just my 2 C-bills, YMMV.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Ice Hellion on January 23, 2012, 01:38:02 PM
But the average Kuritan is a bit more loyal than the average French.

Takiro, the big question for you is: do you really want Katrina to stay on Luthien or do we have some room for discussion?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on January 23, 2012, 05:02:36 PM
Well Ice the idea is for Katrina to go out in a blaze of glory and what better way then this deep strike on the Black Pearl. Her and Takashi squaring off would be interesting.

I'm thinking the setup might be done by another character perhaps for another purpose. I like it to come off as a complete surprise. AFFC included but part of the reason the strike is successful because it is so secret.

Theodore is likely not there but on the front commanding near Robinson trying his best to bluff Hanse. Cutoff he might be captured later on.

I guess ComStar would be caught as flat footed as everybody else but i think they'd try an interdiction. Perhaps the FedCom is prepared for that.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on January 23, 2012, 06:18:36 PM
Maybe not "prepared." That might be the wrong word. Able to mitigate the worst of an Interdiction, that might be a better way of saying it.  ;)
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: MageOhki on February 02, 2012, 05:54:35 PM
I was taking with the great Drakensis over this, and thought to myself... "With some of the hints in the later Jihad books... why would Comstar fight effectivly FC victorious?"  Naw.

"Sir?"

The First Primus turned to look at the ROM adept who brought him Opertation BEOWULF.

"Ambitious of Katrina.  One last ride into the battlefield, giving her grandchildren with a little bit of luck, domination of the Sphere for her dream."

"Yes, sir.  I take it we won't provide this luck?"

"Acutally, I'm thinking on Richard's letter to Mimarou, you remember that one?"

"Sir?" The Adept's tone made it clear he did, but did not see the relvance.

"See to it that all the FC messages get though clear and complete. In fact... see to it that they're very well supplied though deniable contacts... as well as a bit of chaos and confusion to the Dragon."  He paused to look at the young woman in front of him. "At least make plans for it. Also. Arrange for a command circuit to New Avalon... totally covertly."

The Adept stared at his Primus.

"We've been looking at this the wrong way, I think.  Perhaps instead of us ruling... it should be us _educating_ the new ruler... and sasifying Richard's request, would be one way."

The Adept blinked. "Blake!"

"Yes, by his will."

_____________

Of course, as D pointed out this would require Myundo to slip on a bar of soap in her shower... to put the Master in position.  Or the Master sidelines her, or puts her to one side.

But, hey, we're saying Katrina and Hanse get balls of steel, so, what's one more little butterfly?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: drakensis on February 03, 2012, 07:32:18 AM
Liao, Sarna March
Lyran Commonwealth
18 February 3039


The ancestral home of House Liao was now residence to another dynasty entirely. Officially Hanse Davion was accompanying his heavily pregnant wife on a tour of her domain as Duchess of the Sarna March. Unofficially it gave him a last chance to touch base with commanders along the borders with the Capellan Confederation and Free Worlds League before his attention went elsewhere. The gatherings of military officers went almost unnoticed among the flood of wellwishers.

No one except for security and fourteen spies noticed one more limousine among those carrying assorted nobles into the palace. Only security and two spies managed to keep track of the chauffeur after he entered a staff bathroom, doffed his obscuring cap and uniform and also removed several layers of artifical skin that had substantially altered the shape of his face. Fortunately both the spies in question were working for him.

The ComStar robes that were laid out on the washroom counter were a simple courtesy from security before he was escorted to a quiet, windowless conference room. As he was the only occupant, the man turned his attention to the large screen that dominated one side of the room. He was unsurprised when it activated, displaying an almost identical chamber - presumably elsewhere in the palace. Sitting at the other table were two of the most famous people in the Inner Sphere: the First Prince of the Federated Suns and the Archon-Designate of the Lyran Commonwealth.

"Blake's peace upon you," the man said, bowing his head humbly.

"And on you," Melissa Steiner-Davion replied pleasently.

Hanse Davion leant forwards. "So, Precentor, why is it that you have asked for a private audience? Your organisation is not on the best of terms with the Federated Commonwealth."

"It is true that there are certain parts of ComStar that are regrettably at odds with your government, your highness. While I do not place blame upon you for this, may I point out that your actions have led to great changes and change is often frightening. My order, as with any organisation, has its share of conservatives."

"And you are not such a man?"

He smiled. "I would hope not. The protests of our Primus that she is beyond her childhood allegiance to House Kurita are perhaps more hollow than she realises. It can be hard to set aside the prejudices of our youth, but we must endeavour." He cleared his throat. "But I digress. The reason that I have come before you is in furtherance of the Word of Blake. Our founder foresaw that one day humanity would be united and ComStar has worked towards that day ever since."

The look in Melissa's eye was sceptical, her husband hiding his own feelings better.

"It would probably make more sense if you consider that almost every Primus has believed that humanity would be united under the leadership of ComStar," the Precentor clarifed. "It is only recently, if you will excuse me, fromlearning of Operation Beowulf that has inspired us to a new perspective upon certain passages in our holy text show that we are incorrect."

Melissa had paled and Hanse leant forwards. "Then the Combine is aware of Beowulf?"

He shook his head. "No. We have been able to keep the information from Waterly and her pets within the First Circuit. Rest assured that that leak in your security has been plugged." His eyes went to Melissa. "Having lost my own parents, I know that it is scant consolation, but your mother's sacrifice will accomplish everything that she desires. The Black Pearl will fall into her hands and with it, the Inner Sphere shall fall into your hands and the hands of your son."

"And ComStar will aid us in this?" asked Hanse mildly. "What would be your price for that?"

"At the risk of undue drama, our reward will be your first-born son."

"You will leave Victor alone!"

The anger in Melissa Steiner-Davion's voice was dramatic evidence that not all the steel in this marriage belonged to her husband.

"You misunderstand me!" he protested swiftly. "I do not suggest that you would lose your son, that would undermine our goals entirely! It is not possession of Victor that I desire, it is his exaltation: he shall be our leader!"

"Your... leader?" Melissa shook her head. "And what does Primus Waterly think about that?"

"What about her?" he asked mildly.

"Oh. Perhaps you could explain that in more specific terms."

It was an order, only phrased as a request and the Precentor took it as such. "For now, very little. He already has tutors, we would provide one or two more. Under the usual supervision, of course. One could hardly expect your unreserved trust. When he is older, we would ask that he spend some time with our ComGuards and in our administrative arm before he is announced as Primus. I suspect that it will be much the same as the training that you are planning to prepare him to be Archon-Prince."

Hanse looked intrigued. "You're asking for quite a lot on trust, Precentor."

"Since almost everything I'm asking for would take place in a decade, Prince Davion, it is I who am placing my trust in you." He paused. "Oh, before I forget, Victor is going to marry my daughter when they're old enough."

"You've got a lot of nerve making demands like that," Hanse observed, taking Melissa's hand to restrain her from objecting.

He produced a photograph from his robes and held it up for Hanse to see. "I have a wonderful daughter and I want the best for her. The best, in this case, is that her marriage will secure peace in the Inner Sphere."

Melissa pointed at the photograph and turned her head towards someone not visible on the camera. "Is that who I think it is?"

The microphones were well placed so the Precentor couldn't hear the response, but he could see Hanse Davion's face and the sly grin was all the confirmation that he needed.

"So that would make you..."

He lowered his hood, for the first time letting them see his face clearly - the obviously mechanical eye amid the heavy scarring that had all but obliterated the right side of his face, other augmentations showing where his skull had been rebuilt with metal where flesh and bone were no longer sufficient. "I am Thomas Marik," he agreed. "If Parliament knew of the true extent of my injuries they would not have accepted me, thus my use of a doppelganger agent - a volunteer, I swear to you - as my proxy within the Free Worlds League."

Meliss at gulped at the sight. "I... will not marry my son to a girl he does not know."

"Of course not. However there is plenty of time for them to get to know each other before they are old enough to marry, Isis is only four years old. And I am sure that you see the benefits: with this agreement, the Free Worlds League shifts from a distraction in your war plans to an asset. The Capellan Confederation will be surrounded and you can impose Candace Liao as Chancellor without undue difficulty if you so wish."

Hanse laughed. "You want your grandchild to be First Lord of the Star League."

"Of course. Don't you?"

"Something like that, there would need to be changes. And the fact that the Free Worlds League would be the second most powerful state in the Star League has nothing to do with it?"

"Prejudices of youth can be hard to overcome," agreed Thomas calmly. "We can also provide you with valuable intelligence data on the Draconis Combine - Primus Waterly appears to have traded a considerable quantity of military hardware to Theodore Kurita in return for his support in the creation of the Free Rasalhague Republic. ROM believes that you are underestimating his military strength by at least ten regiments."

The look on Hanse's face gave Thomas a warm feeling. ComStar needed the Federated Commonwealth in order to complete their holy mission but now Davion knew that he needed ComStar as well.


Luthien, Pesht District
Draconis Combine
9 July 3039


Katrina Steiner watched the altimeter descend as the drop pod slid through the atmosphere. Somewhere below her, the Draconis Combine was hastily assembling defenses to reinforce the Otomo. Unfortunately for them, the First and Seventh Sword of Light regiments had left Luthien weeks ago. By now they were half-way to the Dieron District and incapable of playing any role in the battle.

Creative use of ComStar transponders had prevented the Combine's authorities from realising that the incoming 'freighters' were actually several dozen military transports until the Overlords started dropping BattleMechs to secure a dropzone on the Tairakana Plains, not far from the Imperial City.

Intelligence suggested that the defensive forces available to defend Luthien's palaces and factories would be somewhere between eight and twelve conventional regiments. To ensure victory, Katrina had brought a picked force. The Tenth Skye Rangers had leapt at the chance to attack the heart of the Draconis Combine. The Sixth Lyran Guards, recently reorganised as an RCT, had been ecstatic to form the backbone of the task force rather than being left posted on the League border. Morgan had of course not hesitated when she called on his Kell Hounds.

And finally Katrina's own command: the Fourth Royal Guards, destroyed almost two hundred years ago. She had handpicked the officers and filled out the manning tables with the pick of the Nagelring's class of '39. She had planned on purchasing brand new BattleMechs from Defiance and Coventry for the regiment but had instead received a donation from Hanse and Melissa's new ally within ComStar. It seemed that Primus Waterly was not the only one willing to provide military aid under the table.

The last vestiges of her pod fell away and Katrina saw the great cities of Luthien beneath her Black Knight. Firing her jumpjets sent a hammerblow of pain through her spine. But then, so did almost everything these days.

Even the most optimistic of her physicans gave her no more than six months to live at this point. Katrina Steiner, architect of the Federated Commonwealth, would not live to see her grandson bring it to fruition. What she could do was ensure that the threat that had menaced her predecessors would never hang over him.

She'd memorised the words to say next, knowing the effect that they would have upon her enemy. Setting her radio to transmit in the clear she called out: "Takashi Kurita. Watashinonamaeha Katrina Steiner. Anatatowatashi wa mikan no shigoto o motte iru."

Takashi Kurita. My name is Katrina Steiner. You and I have unfinished business.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on February 03, 2012, 08:19:02 AM
Yeah, a Steiner Archon on Luthien stomping Snakes.  I know one Lyran fanboy who will be sleeping with a smile on his face this evening.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on February 03, 2012, 12:07:39 PM
Oh wow, very nice indeed guys. Elements in ComStar have seen which way the wind was blowing and are going along to get along. Love where this is going and I hope to see more. Could Katrina's health have been helped out by ComStar medical technologies as well? Might make the whole expedition possible.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Knightmare on February 04, 2012, 07:43:06 PM
I got chills reading this. A chance for a true Star League, with Blake's Blessed helping truly pave the way for Mother Terra. Nice touch with Isis seeing how she and Victor end up tying the knot in canon. Great stuff!
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Cestusrex on February 11, 2012, 10:54:39 PM
Victor as First Lord of a new Star League.  This was MY version of canon (no $*#@ing WizKid crap-that-shall-not-be-named).  Except in my timeline he doesn't take over until after the FedCom Civil War.  Well, I guess the ends DO justify the means?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Halvagor on February 14, 2012, 02:13:31 PM
I generally find this more interesting a concept than the actual 3039 merely leaving things status quo ante.  Possibly I've missed some things in the Jihad books I've been avoiding reading, but I would have thought this was too early for Master to actually be the Master of ComStar?  He's only officially been a Precentor since 3030.  Granted, some people rise quickly...but Tommy took 25 years to rise to Precentor, I'd think it'd take more than ten extra years for him to take over the entire organization.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: drakensis on February 14, 2012, 02:53:23 PM
Just to give a contrast, Myndo Waterly was Primus by the age of 30. It's possible to rise far and fast.

Also, Thomas' formal rank is less important than the fact that he's an insider, part of The Blood, so it's plausible he can at least speak for them. Remember, he'd probably never have been allowed to reach the higher levels before since it would look like House Marik having influence over ComStar. But now that he's not openly a member... Throw in his effective control over the Free Worlds League (since Tom 'Halas' has not yet rebelled against his orders) and he's got a serious amount of influence to bring to the table.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Halvagor on February 14, 2012, 03:22:45 PM
Your point about Waterly, I think, reinforces mine about Thomas not being a big player in ComStar at this time; he didn't rise far or fast...until much later.  Consider, too, that he spent five years out of circulation running the FWL for his father (3030-3035) and then got blown up & rebuilt.  Plus, he'd been nominated as the heir to Janos back in 3021, which one would expect to sideline his power-building in ComStar rather than enhance it; he would be a better pawn than Master.  I'd have expected his rise as Master to correspond to a mixture of Waterly's obviously-growing ambition and the ComStar Schism, where new leaders jockeying for power would give him a much better chance to play puppetmaster in the WoB than in the normal ComStar ranks. 



But I'm working mostly on the ComStar of pre-Clan Invasion fiction & the Historicals, so there's probably all sorts of nonsense in the more recent ComStar/WoB/Jihad books which shows ways for the Master to be calling the shots long before the Schism.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on February 14, 2012, 04:33:03 PM
Perhaps at this stage he was not the master, but the apprentice. However, he is a more effective mouth piece for a current, unknown master when dealing with Davion et al.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Takiro on February 14, 2012, 04:39:16 PM
I'll have to check the dates of the bombing and "Thomas" return to the FWL. Marik only became the Master of ComStar when Waterly was assassinated although he was the highest ranking Shadow member of the Order that we know of. Who else would control the Blood?
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Blacknova on February 14, 2012, 04:44:25 PM
I'd assume there were other leaders of the Blood before Thomas and one such leader became his mentor.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Dread Moores on February 14, 2012, 05:44:52 PM
There were. More specific details are found in Blakist Documents.
Title: Re: What If: FedCom wins the War of 3039
Post by: Halvagor on February 14, 2012, 10:12:32 PM
I'll have to check the dates of the bombing and "Thomas" return to the FWL. Marik only became the Master of ComStar when Waterly was assassinated although he was the highest ranking Shadow member of the Order that we know of. Who else would control the Blood?
Bomb exploded 1 June 3035, false Thomas was introduced 5 December 3036.