OBT Forum

Two of these regiments were mercenaries - Kell Hounds.

At this time the Kell Hounds had only one regiment - the second was added after Katrina's death.

Use the 3rd/12th Star Guards as already mentioned.

Control is going to be an issue Ice. Using the Jihad as an example, once central control on Luthien is broken, command authority can be a major problem. If there's a strong enough (and loyal enough) Warlord present he may be able to organize and more importantly, rein in the DCMS.

However, the loss of Luthien, even briefly will be a super hard pill to swallow. I can guarantee more than one DCMS unit will go "rogue" and strike out immediately for the Federated Commonwealth. Also keep in mind the Duke Ricol (if I remember correctly) is still present in the DCMS High Command. Meaning, there's enough conflict among the Warlords of 3039 that the loss of the Coordinator and his son might realistically break apart the Draconis Combine. A power vacuum like that is hard to ignore.

Worse case you have DCMS units going bezerk when they shouldn't and more than one Warlord operating independently. This could result in unnecessary losses to an already hurt DCMS, multiple and conflicting peace treaties, fracturing of the DC entirely, etc. If things got bad enough, expect the FRR to usurp a few worlds while the roof caves in.

They could claim a Sarna type inceident and weigh in.  However, there is no Division stationed on Luthien, due to past dissagreements, so the ComStar force on world would be limited.

Quote from: Blacknova on January 17, 2012, 04:36:07 PM

They could claim a Sarna type inceident and weigh in.  However, there is no Division stationed on Luthien, due to past dissagreements, so the ComStar force on world would be limited.

On a larger scale I would imagine ComStar would use the same incident to interdict the entire Federated Commonwealth, refusing to lift the interdiction (even with Black Box technology) the FedCom tries to force their way into an HPG station somewhere (or ComStar again stages it) and presto! FedCom v. ComStar in a full-scale war.

That would go exceedingly poor for ComStar, as Operation Scorpion showcased. A spread-out ComGuard is a weak ComGuard. ComStar's best chance to inflict the most damage at that point would be to unleash ROM, not the ComGuard.

How long do you think it would take ComStar to get the Guard together and do you think Davion wouldn't notice? One of the reasons Scorpion failed is because Hanse caught wind of what ComStar was up to and because the Guards didn't have a massed presence in the Occupation Zone. Come 3039 the Guard is still dispersed thought the Inner Sphere. Consolidating them won't go unnoticed, and will likely tip ComStar's hand in any event. The best and mostly likely recourse, or action undertaken by the Order would be to unleash ROM to hamper the FedCom's war effort.

I think the real question that needs to be asked is why?

Why would ComStar opt for open conflict?

Until the Clans bluntly and directly claim Terra as their intended target ComStar hasn't been placed in a position where massed open conflict was necessary. I still don't see an assault on Luthien prompting such a response simply because better, more covert and more often used tools in ComStar's arsenal haven't been utilized first.

You gotta think like 3039 ComStar.

For one, they've never fought a pitched battle, or consolidated. The Guard has never really operated in large formations. ComStar has no real working industrial complex. (This is before the massive losses on Tukayyid, so most of Terra's factories are mothballed at this point.) Primary income for ComStar comes from their HPGs. Burning them would be akin to cutting their own throat. Abandoning the HPGs, or disabling the software should suffice. For one, operating the HPGs should be beyond the capability of everyone except Wolf's Dragoons, so its the technicians, and to a lesser extent, software that needs to be nullified...not the hardware. (For example, say ComStar did "win," they might have to replace all of those HPG sites. That's a ton of cash and resources. Outlay they'd have to provide after fighting a major war.)

But really, you have to return to the why? Why would ComStar go toe-to-toe with the Federated Commonwealth?

From a risk standpoint, open warfare prior to exhausting ComStar's other tools is paramount to suicide. Especially when you consider what an Interdiction, combined with a covert ROM war might accomplish instead. And these are operations directly against the Suns, and operations ComStar is intimately familiar with conducting. But honestly, when has ComStar ever relied solely on direct operations?...Before Scorpion, ComStar was all about pawns. Specifically, the other Successor States.

What if ComStar provided information, assets and other resources to the FWL & CC, or even the TC? Would they be able to entice them out of entropy? Perhaps, perhaps not, but its something ComStar would likely attempt prior to building a buffer state around Terra from the get go. Maybe ComStar will stage another performance act or two on a couple of FWL/CC worlds pointing fingers at the FedCom. It worked on Sarna in the Fourth after all.

The point is, ComStar's smart enough to exhaust what it's comfortable doing before opting to do something it's not when a final outcome, or direct threat is in doubt.

Now, if Hanse Davion declared his intention to reform the Star League after sacking Luthien by claiming Terra...while premature and possibly crazy, may earn him a response ComStar's not entirely comfortable doing, but shocked enough to use.   

Say, like some sort of armed, or more overt resistance.