Topic: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone (Read 9517 times)

drakensis · « **on:** March 16, 2012, 07:46:41 PM »

An idea I've been toying around with is the the Outback in the Federated Suns doesn't get much love and they know it, thus the defections of Malagrotta and Filtvet during the Jihad. It probably didn't help that pretty much anyone in the area who gave a crap about the central government had moved out to fight in the Civil War (and large numbers did not return).

So the idea I'm considering is that during the Civil War, a group of neutrals (mixed with mildly pro-Katherine and pro-Victor types) decide it's more important to make sure that the Federated Suns is around after the Civil War than to actually participate. Their influence gradually extends to reconstruction of areas that have lost all effective military presence as victors move on to new battlefields and losers are either locked up or on 'probation'. The group's power-base is the Edgeward Operational Areas of the the Crucis and (to a lesser extent) the Draconis Marches, and by the end of the conflict they've managed to get some semblence of the March Militia's back in operation in the Draconis March and have a reasonable number of combat commands (a battalion of mechs and five or more conventional battalions) staffed by graduates of Filtvet, Kilbourne and cadets from the Albion Cadet Cadres.

At the end of the war having limited damage to the region and also swung a couple of battles in the favour of the winners (Islamabad CMM flips sides on Panpour, the Royal Cavaliers and Crucis Lancers are forced off Tsamma, with the Crucis Lancers then being available to reinforce Kesai IV against the DCMS) they fold cards and hand power back to New Avalon. Their job is done...

Except then the Jihad blows up and less than a year since they relinquished power New Avalon is cut off and someone needs to step up to secure the area. But after a few years ruling during the Civil War and several more under the shadow of the Jihad, they might not step down a second time. Which gives Yvonne a decision to make: does she play the long diplomatic game to win the worlds back or does she take military action, post-Jihad, to force approximately 1/3rd of the Federated Suns (the bulk of Chirkof, Minette and Woodbine OAs) back under her rule?

Takiro · « **Reply #1 on:** March 16, 2012, 09:15:34 PM »

Just thinking out loud here... Hmmm.....

I never got the idea of Woodbine being a part of the "Outback and if they were wouldn't they be Robinson's problem? Think the Sandovals would want them back.

Now Chirkof and Minette present an interesting problem especially if united under a single government say at Filtvet. If you've got everyone there working together the Davions might have quite the problem. Could this new Periphery power get support from others like the OWA and the TC? Could get quite a powerful Periphery Coalition going.

More important could be Blakist support. Perhaps part of a Fringe Solution to the Jihad. Strengthen the Periphery at the expense of the Successor States while expanding your Terran Protectorate.

Blacknova · « **Reply #2 on:** March 17, 2012, 12:00:59 AM »

There are only two things rebels are good for: Rebelling and Executing.

SEND IN THE TROOPS!

Takiro · « **Reply #3 on:** March 17, 2012, 12:23:47 AM »

You rebel scum!

Realistically you could negotiate some kind of autonomy or even independence for the region. Call it the Edgeward (Outback) Republic or something and it is the newest Periphery power around. The rest of the Federated Suns could probably get along without their Edgeward brethren maybe even talking off the benefits of the Outbacks independence.

Blacknova · « **Reply #4 on:** March 17, 2012, 01:36:35 AM »

Sorry Takiro, I am from the other side of the coin and must respectably disagree. There is only one cure for a Revolution and that is the blood of the Revolutionariesâ€¦in large and gushing torrents.

drakensis · « **Reply #5 on:** March 17, 2012, 03:56:18 AM »

Quote from: Takiro on March 16, 2012, 09:15:34 PM

I never got the idea of Woodbine being a part of the "Outback and if they were wouldn't they be Robinson's problem? Think the Sandovals would want them back.

Handbook House Davion states that there are a large number of 'Outback' or 'Skid Row' worlds in all three Marches. And given who Yvonne is married to, I think it's fair to say that seccessionists in that region would be as much her problem as the Sandoval's.

Quote from: Takiro on March 16, 2012, 09:15:34 PM

Now Chirkof and Minette present an interesting problem especially if united under a single government say at Filtvet. If you've got everyone there working together the Davions might have quite the problem.

It's a lot of worlds, more than the Periphery March of FM3085. On the other hand, it's not a region brimming with military resources. The AFFS would have a huge advantage in numbers and supplies (although it would be painful to carry out such a campaign in the immediate aftermath of the FCCW and Jihad with the AFFS so savaged). The issue would be doing so in such a way that the worlds don't need to be garrisoned for the next generation or so to keep them in line.

Quote from: Takiro on March 16, 2012, 09:15:34 PM

Could this new Periphery power get support from others like the OWA and the TC? Could get quite a powerful Periphery Coalition going.

It's possible that they might ally although both would be poisoned chalices: the Taurians are jumping under the bus in the fiercest way possible and the Outworlds Alliance would be somewhere between first and third base with the Snow Ravens during this era. Still, the Outback might be able to stablize that... although how to stabilize the Taurians at this point escapes me.
Alternatively, the Outback might wind up clashing with the Taurians if their attempts to batter pirate bases leads to them operating in regions of Taurian influence such as the Pirate's Haven (if not into the Concordat itself). There's nothing like a war to promote national identity...

Quote from: Takiro on March 16, 2012, 09:15:34 PM

More important could be Blakist support. Perhaps part of a Fringe Solution to the Jihad. Strengthen the Periphery at the expense of the Successor States while expanding your Terran Protectorate.

That's another idea that might work well in the short term... and backfire quite drastically in the longer term. Even if Yvonne was inclined to let that pass, there would probably be a small Regulan fleet barging through Capellan space to start bombarding the Outback with dirty nukes.
Given that the stated goal of the leadership would be to stablise the region and the Word of Blake is pretty definitely a destablizing influence, I'd imagine that the leaders would not want Blakist aid. Of course, that in no sense prevents the WoB from infiltrating middle management, subverting parts of the command structure and endorsing rebellion against the Federated Suns.

Quote from: Takiro on March 17, 2012, 12:23:47 AM

Realistically you could negotiate some kind of autonomy or even independence for the region. Call it the Edgeward (Outback) Republic or something and it is the newest Periphery power around. The rest of the Federated Suns could probably get along without their Edgeward brethren maybe even talking off the benefits of the Outbacks independence.

I can't see Yvonne being happy about such a large fraction of the FS departing, for the prestige if nothing else. After the FCCW I'd see her considering establishing a Periphery March to contain the worst trouble makers, although she wouldn't really have time to organise that. Of course, that's the obvious compromise after the Jihad but how compromising the two sides are likely to be at that point...

Quote from: Blacknova on March 17, 2012, 01:36:35 AM

Sorry Takiro, I am from the other side of the coin and must respectably disagree. There is only one cure for a Revolution and that is the blood of the Revolutionariesâ€¦in large and gushing torrents.

Should I interpret that as a vote for the AFFS to bring the rebellions provinces in line with fire, blood and the sword?

Blacknova · « **Reply #6 on:** March 17, 2012, 04:45:52 AM »

Your ability to grasp my thinking, is as always, breathtaking.

drakensis · « **Reply #7 on:** March 17, 2012, 08:53:51 AM »

Well let's see if that would be feasible, as of say... 3075, since there's the Field Report handy and I don't imagine you'd want to see the AFFS waiting a decade.

The Outback would have, working from my notes, around a dozen March Militia RCTs, in pretty good shape, and seven or eight LCTs (or at least combat commands of equivalent power) that have been rather more involved in active operations, including probable clashes with Tortuga, Taurus and perhaps having aided in the liberation of New Avalon in 3074.

The AFFS, in contrast has 5 independent regiments (avg. 85% strength), 12 LCT (avg. 92% strength) and 17 RCT (avg. 69% strength). That's less of a numerical advantage than I expected and given the border that Yvonne shares with her good and trusted friends Sun-Tzu Liao and Kiyamori Miyamoto I'd imagine that mobilising more than 40% of the AFFS to reclaim the Outback would be perhaps unwise.

It's certainly possible that 5 LCTs, 7 RCTs and a couple of regiments could beat 7 LCTs and 12 RCTs but I doubt that they could do so quickly, particularly since while they can replenish supplies more readily than the Outback can, the AFFS probably has smaller stockpiles available to them after a decade and a half of almost constant warfare. And while the long term may favour the AFFS' superior resources, the longer the war the longer it will take to pacify the outback after the war. It'll also seriously hamper the rebuilding of the AFFS in the longer term.

This is sounding like a bit of a last resort plan.

Blacknova · « **Reply #8 on:** March 17, 2012, 06:16:15 PM »

Take Croften, Chirkof and Minnette, that leaves the Outback with little in the way of supplies or production facilities. Gain local numerical superiority in those three systems, thereby damaging a larger percentage of the Outback's forces in those three systems, as well as denying them the materials to rebuild.

At that point, several worlds will come back over, victory being the best enticers and from there you can begin reducing major commands/worlds as you see fit. It will be a long campaing, but that way you keep the good worlds and create a death by a thousand cuts.

drakensis · « **Reply #9 on:** March 18, 2012, 03:15:01 AM »

You are forgetting a few key worlds: Panpour, Filtvet and Kilbourne. The first for its factories and its shipyard, the latter two for the universities (yes, they are also academies, but their training of technical personnel is probably more critical). There might have been some development of other military manufacture over the previous decade but I agree that it wouldn't be as important as Panpour or Crofton. There's also the logisitical issue of assembling enough shipping to support deep strikes of that magnitude.

Nonetheless, that sounds like the sort of plan that if it works would be Sun-Tzu's ploy of sending House Hiritsu to Kaifeng, but if it doesn't work turns into the Third Royal Guards on Northwind. Both of which are pretty entertaining stories.

Hmm, a two pronged attack of an RCT attacking Panpour and another RCT hitting Crofton, a LCT striking at Filtvet and another at Kilbourne. Opposition is likely to be elements of March Militias, plus Academy Training Battalions. If they all work out the the Outback is crippled with their major sources of 'Mechs, Combat Vehicles, Aerospace Fighters, Jumpships and technicians all in Federated Suns hands. If they don't all work out, the Outback is still seriously hurt in the long run, although if it goes badly wrong, the AFFS could prospectively lose 12% of its remaining strength with the Jihad still being fought in some regions of the Inner Sphere, no certainty if the result will be a peaceful Inner Sphere. Then again, there was Operation Matador...

Perhaps stack the deck with one of their two functioning warships? Or commit pocket warships. The latter seems more likely.

Okay, such an attack is plausible but more likely to take place round about 3080 after extended efforts to look into a diplomatic solution and after the AFFS has spent several years rebuilding to the point where it can absorb the potential losses.

Ice Hellion · « **Reply #10 on:** March 18, 2012, 03:55:52 AM »

Just a question (yes another one): why would any of the two sides of the Civil War let these people go away from the Federated Suns?

drakensis · « **Reply #11 on:** March 18, 2012, 05:46:13 AM »

First of all, during the Civil War nobody - or at least nobody in a position of power - is suggesting that the Outback break away from the Federated Suns. Instead it's temporary measures to hold the region together (albeit with an expanding idea of what constitutes the region) in the absence of coherent national government. By the middle of the Civil War Katherine is no longer exercising control over much of the Federated Suns, but Victor has not really imposed a coherent replacement government yet. And no one appears to be taking Yvonne seriously at all.
The step towards actual independence would be taking place during the Jihad.

Secondly, as far as their declaring neutrality during the FCCW goes, their activities do not really diverge from canon until mid-to-late 3063. The only strong player in the outback of the Draconis March is Tancred Sandoval, who's had a mixed record of success - losing on Mayetta before stamping over Kilbourne and Woodbine and then moving over into Tsamma where he gets bogged down.

The outback regions of the Capellan March are close to New Syrtis and George Hasek manages to keep them fairly well in order and not involved in this movement at all.

The Outback regions of the Crucis March are pretty lukewarm, leaning to Katherine. However the only major confrontations are the above mentioned Tsamma (which is mostly Draconis March forces fighting there); Panpour (which is feeling nationalistic and looking back fondly at the United Hindu Collective); and Broken Wheel (where the loyalists fail miserably to crush the 1st Albion Cadet Cadre, the leader of whom despite being pro-Victor is more interested in protecting the border from pirates than fighting in the civil war).

So the Allies have no forces in the vicinity save for George Hasek and Tancred Sandoval who are both far interested in their own Marches. Katherine does have a reserve she could commit, but it's the regiments she would be sending to New Syrtis in early 3065 and by the time they're actually taking a stand against her it would be mid-to-late 3064 - I'm thinking the flashpoint for this being the fighting on Panpour from August 3064 - by which point she's got greater concerns to deal with and those forces are in the Capellan March anyway so it seems likely they'd be used against New Syrtis first, with the expectation of moving on to sort out Panpour after that.

So overall by the time that it's evident that something important is actually happening in the Outback, there's not really much in place to stop it. And afterwards, while I doubt Yvonne, Tancred or George would be happy with the leadership, what are they going to do? Punish them for not supporting Katherine? They'd most likely be on watch lists from then on, but with the Jihad exploding into action only eight months into the reconstruction, restructuring the Outback is unlikely to be high on anyone's list of priorities.

drakensis · « **Reply #12 on:** March 18, 2012, 06:16:43 AM »

Here's a bit of a timeline for events through the FCCW. Information in yellow is canonical.

3063
January
Katherine Steiner-Davion sends commando and anti-terrorist forces out to suppress uprisings and impose martial law on restive worlds in the Crucis March.
Leftenant Generals Lucy Davion of the Remagen CMM and Derrick Gray of the 1st Albion Training Cadre meet on Killarney and agree to co-operate in reducing damage from the conflict that they agree is more or less inevitable.

March
Tancred Sandoval takes 3rd Crucis Lancers strike at Mayetta to relieve the DMM there, under attack by the Loyalist DMM from Milligan and Bremond

April
Allied forces on Mayetta consolidate and withdraw, unable to defeat the Loyalist forces there
1st Crucis Lancers strike at Kilbourne and crush the DMM and Academy Training Battalion there. Gray sends a detachment from the 1st Albion Cadre to bolster defenses in Kilbourne PDZ, the force designated 1st Albion Hussars and absorbing 1st Lancer officers and soldiers overseeing the Kilbourne elements. Gray's envoys reach an agreement of using Kilbourne to train replacements
2nd Albion Training Cadre moves to Panpour to protect factories there. Lucy convinces Pravin Singh, Duke of Panpour, to use his leverage on the Islamabad CMM to take a neutral stance

May
The allied 1st Ceti Hussars uncover a cabal loyalist officers sabotaging their military readiness
Lucy convinces Katherine to fund Achernar Battlemechs and Corean Enterprises to start building battlemech production lines on loyalist worlds in Nunivak and Point Barrow Combat Regions to reward them - suggesting a carrot-and-stick method to keep the regions (both of which are fairly close to New Avalon) loyal to Katherine and also give her back up supply lines.

July
Corean Enterprises start building a small factory on Chirikof to manufacture the VLK-QD, using tooling being replaced as they gear up to build newer designs on New Avalon.

August
Achernar Battlemechs start building a small factory on Defiance to manufacture the DV-7D Dervish, using tooling being replaced as they gear up to build newer designs on New Avalon.

September
Sandoval's task force reaches Woodbine and with support from parts of the 1st Crucis Lancers faces the Third Lyran Regulars
1st Ceti Hussars land on Tancredi IV and take the surrender of the First Conroe Training Battalion. Gray contacts the Battalion commander through back channels and convinces her to send trainees to Kilbourne and to rebuild the Mayetta, Milligan and Bremond DMM which are absorbed into other units fighting the Civil War
1st Ceti Hussars arrive on Bryceland and are joined by 3rd Davion Guards, making slow progress against the local DMM

October
Filtvet Academy Battalion and Brockton Training Academy land on Broken Wheel to suppress the Allies' First Albion Cadre and suffer a crushing defeat. General Gray takes over control of the Broken Wheel Combat Region and seperates it into two PDZ. Survivors of the Filtvet and Brockton are reformed into scratch units (2nd and 3rd Albion Hussars) under the leadership of cadets and officers from the 1st Albion Cadre and assigned the duty of defending the region.

November
Further reinforcements from the 1st Crucis Lancers arrive on Woodbine, rapidly swinging the tide in the Allies favour. The Third Regulars surrender by the end of the month. Elements from Kilbourne take over responsibility for their remaining equipment.
Lucy Davion convinces defensive forces in Point Barrow Combat Region to remain independent. She breaks a cadre unit from the Remagen CMM to help them form the Point Barrow CMM, placing special emphasis on securing the factories on Chirikof and Defiance, ostensibly on behalf of Katherine.

3064
January
Tancred Sandoval lands on Tsamma to suppress the CMM there, only to find the Bremond and Milligan DMM (now combined as the 1st Royal Cavaliers) pursuing him there

February
Allied reinforcements from the Uruk-hai reach Panpour. Cadets from the 2nd Albion Cadre are detached to reinforce Nunivak Combat Region, forming the 4th Albion Hussars

June
Having infiltrated elite infantry into loyalist positions, the 1st Ceti Hussars quckly demolish the Bryceland DMM. Elements from Woodbine and Kilbourne move in to rebuild the DMM while the Ceti Hussars head back to Kesai IV in light of the clashes between forces loyal to House Sandoval and the DCMS

August
Remainder of 1st Crucis Lancers arrive on Tsamma to reinforce Tancred Sandoval
Hansen's Roughriders and elements of the Warren CMM assault Panpour but are surprised by the Islamabad CMM, which rather than supporting them assault their flank. The Roughriders are allowed to retreat, but the Warren CMM is forced to surrender their equipment, used as the core of the 5th Albion Hussars combat command

3065
January
Lexington Combat Group arrive on Panpour and, finding the situation in hand, turn back to New Syrtis

March
12th Galedon Regulars and 1st Amphigean LAG invade Kesai IV, placing heavy pressure on the remainig DMM and 1st Ceti Hussar forces

April
Assembling members of the High Council of the Federated Suns, from worlds in the Chirikof, Minette and Woodbine Operational Areas on Minette, Lucy Davion persuades them to form a provisional government for what is dubbed the 'Outback March' and to remain neutral in the Civil War. At a stroke, Loyalist and Allied forces are denied more than a third of the territory of the Federated Suns. Katherine is furious, but having sent her last major reserve to New Syrtis, can't spare major forces to bring the region back in line although MIIO is turned loose. The Allies, on the other hand, are satisfied that the region is denied to Katherine.

July
1st Royal Cavaliers mistakenly employ chemical weapons against the Crucis Lancers on Tsamma, breaking the allied momentum and seriously harming Tancred Sandoval.
DCMS reinforcements reach Kesai IV pushing the Ceti Hussars further onto the defensive

August
Elements of Remagen CMM and both Albion Cadres arrive on Tsamma, designated as 6th and 7th Albion Hussars. Presenting the image of formed units, they demand the departure of the Royal Cavaliers and the Crucis Lancers from Tsamma. Badly battered, allied and loyalist alike comply. The demand is made in the name of Lucy Davion and Derrick Gray acting as Minister and Marshal, respectively, of the Outback March

September
The Outback March begins rebuilding the Crucis March Militias, merging parts of Nunivak CR into Filtvet PDZ and aiming for a strength of eight seperate commands.

October
The 1st and 3rd Crucis Lancers relieve the defenders of Kesai IV.

December
The arrival of the Lexington Combat Group completes George Hasek-Davion's triumph on New Syrtis

3066
June
Allied forces converge on New Avalon, the absence of the allied 1st and 3rd Crucis Lancers (and presence of the surviving Royal Cavaliers) counterbalanced by the addition of the Lexington Combat Group.

3067
April
Formal surrender of Katherine Steiner-Davion ends the Civil War.

May
Yvonne Steiner-Davion grudgingly accepts actions of the 'Outback March' and its leaders. Albion Hussars are integrated into the AFFS and for the most part redeployed to cover the border regions of the Capellan and Draconis Marches, both of which need reinforcement badly. Surviving elements of the Royal Cavaliers (savaged on New Avalon) are redesignated 8th Albion Hussars. Derrick Gray is formally named commander of the Albion Hussar corps while Lucy Davion resigns her commission and is appointed to a committee considering the possibility of forming an Outback March.

Gabriel · « **Reply #13 on:** March 18, 2012, 08:58:58 AM »

Hmm Very Interesting

Blacknova · « **Reply #14 on:** March 18, 2012, 08:59:16 AM »

Quote

You are forgetting a few key worlds: Panpour, Filtvet and Kilbourne. The first for its factories and its shipyard, the latter two for the universities (yes, they are also academies, but their training of technical personnel is probably more critical). There might have been some development of other military manufacture over the previous decade but I agree that it wouldn't be as important as Panpour or Crofton. There's also the logisitical issue of assembling enough shipping to support deep strikes of that magnitude.

Yep, they were just example worlds, but the strategy remains valid. The outback has a few choice centres, the loss of which would cripple it. The war would be a bit like the American Civil War, where a more motivated but for less developed power would face off against the more industrialsed foe with naval superiority.

it would be a long fight, but I think the outcome would be inevitable and the Suns would win. Just look at Filtvelt in cannon in 3130, there a only a few worlds left.

Alos the story looks good, fitting into canon nicely, but even with all those Albion Hussar regiments, the out back is too big and they have too few forces. Also, it would appear that the AFFS will also be operating on interior lines with better support.

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Author Topic: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone (Read 9517 times)

drakensis

What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Takiro

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Blacknova

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Takiro

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Blacknova

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

drakensis

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Blacknova

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

drakensis

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Blacknova

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

drakensis

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Ice Hellion

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

drakensis

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

drakensis

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Gabriel

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone

Blacknova

Re: What If: Malagrotta & Filtvet Weren't Alone