Ice Hellion Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #60 on: December 15, 2008, 04:07:49 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 14, 2008, 02:22:32 PM
Depends a bit on what kind of neutrality you are talking.
Could you elaborate?
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #61 on: December 15, 2008, 09:49:56 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 12, 2008, 04:35:01 AM
For the first years? No why should it? It is most profitable and interstellar transport is abundantly available, after that however the yards were destroyed along with every JumpShip that the fleets and armies could shoot at. More and more transport assets would be relocated to the military and domestic priority cargo. By the end of SW1 the combatants didn't even have enough ships for the minimum domestic needs much less a surplus for foreign trade.
Sorry it took a while to reply, but I've been extremely busy.
I disagree here CJvR because of the nature of realigning economics. The Coup ruined trade between the Terran Hegemony and her partners. Amaris did more than just destroy factories, and level cities. He appropriated remaining manufacturing capabilities, stripped & stockpiled excess military product at the expense of civilian production. More importantly he destroyed regular trade cycles, and ruined the Hegemony-centered Star League economy. He realigned the Hegemony's remaining production capability to support his war effort but in the process cut the Hegemony from the heart of a 200+ year old economic system. Great for Amaris. Bad for the Hegemony.
In a short term realignment this wouldn't be much of an issue, but the Hegemony's trade partners had a decade to realign their economies to compensate for the disruption and change. (All Inner Sphere nations would have suffered an economic decline during the Coup. Both for the disruption and for the realignment) Not too mention the general destruction inflicted on the Hegemony's economic and production infrastructure, the social travesties, and ecological damage to her worlds.
With the Coup at a close the Hegemony/Republic economy is in real bad shape. It'll be suffering from years of misuse, neglect, destruction, realignment, etc. You name it, it'll be suffering from it.
You mentioned JumpShips, and abundant Interstellar Transport. Absolutely. But why do traders need or want to travel to the Republic? Thanks to Amaris there is going to be a very limited list of non-military commodities available to trade and they'll be at rock-bottom prices. Fantastic for the Great Houses, bad for the Republic.
Throw in the short period between the fall and the Succession War and the Republic's trade capability doesn't even get a chance to get off the ground let alone back on its feet.
Quote from: Takiro on December 12, 2008, 07:44:30 PM
Non-military goods are not a problem. Terrans will have industrial products and agricultural surpluses to sell.
You're kidding right?
Most of the ex-Hegemony worlds in canon didn't starve (at least those hit by the coup) thanks to massive influxes of aid (supplied by the Great Houses), their citizenry relocated, or (thankfully) within a decade or so these worlds were gobbled up by the Successor States...oh, or their populations were further reduced by famine, plague or war. A great many worlds in the Hegemony were not breadbasket worlds by the time of the Coup. They may have been the choicest worlds to colonize, but a great number suffered from the Hegemony-centered Star League economy. They were paradise worlds but geared towards production, not farming. Why create farms when you can keep your pristine forests, sell something and just import your food? I mean we have the Star League, we can specialize! Even if you disagree, Amaris was fond of starving worlds into submission, sending the best food to his troops and ruining the agricultural output of a number of Hegemony planets. Plus, corporations like D-K Foods were ruined. These interstellar corps had the know-how and infrastructure necessary to successfully transport food AND make a profit. Who's going to step into their shoes and quickly.
Because remember folks, we're under a time limit here. The Succession War is going to start. (They may not know it, but the increase in hostilities will curtail foreign investment and foreign trade, thereby drying up markets and evaporating capital.)
Keep in mind that civilian industrial products would be at least a decade old by Coup's end. Amaris converted and devoted most of the remaining production capability in the Hegemony to his war effort. Converting back takes time, and conversion equipment may not be available.
Quote from: Takiro on December 12, 2008, 07:44:30 PM
Knightmare asked before what the Terrans have to trade at first. I would think boat loads of valuables like germanium which the SL dollar was based on. High tech replacement parts for HPGs, terraforming systems, etc.
Can't argue with Germanium. Amaris stockpiled tons of the stuff, along with other precious metals. So there's a market for those raw commodities.
But high-tech replacement parts for HPGs, and other systems are going to be in short supply if available at all. Again, we're dealing with the aftershocks of a ruined integrated economy and over a decade of destruction and misuse of its remaining parts.
I mean, this is WHY the Hegemony didn't survive in canon. The economic recovery (or lack of) time between the dissolution of the League and the start of the Succession Wars wasn't long enough to create a viable Hegemony. Maybe, just maybe if Kerensky had stayed put and threw the weight of the SLDF behind the Terran Hegemony and the Succession Wars been stalled a few more decades it's possible the nation could have survived. Given 50 years of peace and we'd easily see a modified version of the League economy back in action, even without a Star League.
(However, it wouldn't be the same because of the Coup's realignment, and the amount of time it would take to get the Hegemony back on its feet. During that period intra-House trade would continue to grow and their internal production capabilities strengthened. They would become even less reliant on the Hegemony. A rebuilding Hegemony may be able to retain its scientific and technological edge, but it'd be very very difficult, if not impossible and they'd have to spend an enormous amount of already "desperately needed elsewhere" resources on maintaining it. Economically and scientifically, once you fall behind it's extremely difficult to regain the top spot. Something else has to give for that to happen. Finally, if the Star League didn't reform a rebuilding Hegemony would once more be faced with the same economic crisis that Ian Cameron faced: a chronic, perhaps desperate shortage of natural resources. And without a Star League, the nation-locked Hegemony will be at the mercy of her neighbors.)
CJvR Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #62 on: December 16, 2008, 11:32:19 AM »
Quote from: Ice Hellion
Could you elaborate?
Well there is genuine indifference.
Political neutrality, "we don't take sides in your squabbles".
Neutrality as defined by international treaty with rights and obligations.
CJvR Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #63 on: December 16, 2008, 12:20:59 PM »
Quote from: Knightmare
With the Coup at a close the Hegemony/Republic economy is in real bad shape. It'll be suffering from years of misuse, neglect, destruction, realignment, etc. You name it, it'll be suffering from it.
True, but it had 10 years of recovery time to fix the worst problems.
Quote from: Knightmare
But why do traders need or want to travel to the Republic? Thanks to Amaris there is going to be a very limited list of non-military commodities available to trade and they'll be at rock-bottom prices.
The markets in the IS will not have dried up completly, many things will not be available elsewhere, and 10 years is enough to restart many industries.
Quote from: Knightmare
Fantastic for the Great Houses, bad for the Republic.
No not particulary good for the houses either, local stuff will have to be made to replace the lost TH goods and will likely be simpler and more expensive if it is even possible to replicate outside the TH.
Quote from: Knightmare
Throw in the short period between the fall and the Succession War and the Republic's trade capability doesn't even get a chance to get off the ground let alone back on its feet.
Back to SL levels, no way! But I seriously doubt it would be non-existant. The ability to produce high-tech stuff would remain and the markets, while smaller would also remain.
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #64 on: December 16, 2008, 02:03:37 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 16, 2008, 12:20:59 PM
True, but it had 10 years of recovery time to fix the worst problems.
Ten years isn't much without massive outside investment. Want real world food for thought? Imagine how long post-WWII Germany's economy would need to recover without foreign investment? (both the U.S. & the Soviets) Germany's position was largely the same as the Hegemony's (minus the WMDs) A wartime economy, converted, disrupted and stripped, its people in the gutter. You can't get blood, or in this case a market economy from a stone. The point is, on its own the Hegemony would not have been able to reproduce a viable economy in the alloted timeframe without investment. Investment that runs contrary to an viable and independent state.
Quote from: CJvR on December 16, 2008, 12:20:59 PM
The markets in the IS will not have dried up completly, many things will not be available elsewhere, and 10 years is enough to restart many industries.
Actually, markets in the IS would be starving for civilian commodities thanks to the Coup, but domestic industries would have ten years to help satisfy the short-term needs. (People will hold out for the possibility of better goods) Remember, while the Hegemony's economy is disintegrating beneath the Usurper's thumb the unencumbered Great Houses have a decade to pick up the slack. Demand would drive the creation of a means to satisfy this domestic desire, and would intensify once news of the Coup's effect on the Hegemony was made available.
Quote from: CJvR on December 16, 2008, 12:20:59 PM
No not particularly good for the houses either, local stuff will have to be made to replace the lost TH goods and will likely be simpler and more expensive if it is even possible to replicate outside the TH.
Correct. The Market doesn't stop. It adapts and continues to move forward, exploiting the setbacks. (Like the old adage: Where some see obstacles, others see opportunity) Initially the Great Houses shipping will suffer and cascading economic decline would occur regardless, but the economic vacuum left by the Coup will be filled, and between the decade of the Coup and the amount of time necessary for reconstruction the Great Houses will have plenty of time to fill it.
Quote from: CJvR on December 16, 2008, 12:20:59 PM
Back to SL levels, no way! But I seriously doubt it would be non-existant. The ability to produce high-tech stuff would remain and the markets, while smaller would also remain.
Context is important. How much time is required to realign and repair a decade old economic trend? Since House markets would realign amongst themselves with the Coup and the Hegemony's in complete disarray, the decade long separation between the two is actually longer. Much longer in fact.
If for a second we ignore every other possible impact or influence on the Hegemony's economy post-Coup (Such as, but not limited too: Destruction of Manufacturing Facilities, Loss of Trade Fleets, Ecological and infrastructure damage, or a Lack of consumable resources) These two distinct entities must now REALIGN with each other. More importantly the markets need a profitable reason to realign. Profitability equals marketability. Once the decision is made to invest, it still takes time...
CJvR Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #65 on: December 16, 2008, 04:15:13 PM »
Quote from: Knightmare
Ten years isn't much without massive outside investment. Want real world food for thought? Imagine how long post-WWII Germany's economy would need to recover without foreign investment? (both the U.S. & the Soviets) Germany's position was largely the same as the Hegemony's (minus the WMDs) A wartime economy, converted, disrupted and stripped, its people in the gutter. You can't get blood, or in this case a market economy from a stone. The point is, on its own the Hegemony would not have been able to reproduce a viable economy in the alloted timeframe without investment.
Well it was sort of Germany I was thinking of and I read the data a bit differently from you. Even the years after the war the German economy was hardly stone dead. IIRC it was about 1/3-1/2 of the 1936 levels in 46/47 and that was with occupation powers deliberatly dismantling the economy. In 48 after the currency reform it rose by about 50% in 6 months showning how much it had been held back by erroneous policies. This was pre-Marshall plan, after that the recovery was turbocharged.
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #66 on: December 16, 2008, 05:22:21 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 16, 2008, 04:15:13 PM
Well it was sort of Germany I was thinking of and I read the data a bit differently from you. Even the years after the war the German economy was hardly stone dead. IIRC it was about 1/3-1/2 of the 1936 levels in 46/47 and that was with occupation powers deliberately dismantling the economy. In 48 after the currency reform it rose by about 50% in 6 months showing how much it had been held back by erroneous policies. This was pre-Marshall plan, after that the recovery was turbocharged.
This is true, I was referencing consumer commodities and market ties. I could have used a more pertinent and better example using Globalization and market integration as a reference point, but I'm not sure how many people are familiar with subject matter.
In 1945, it is safe to say that there was no German economy whatsoever: the country was destroyed utterly and almost completely. No heavy industry, no agriculture, no light industry, and no commerce, wholesaling, or retail selling occurred outside of the black market, rationing, etc.
By 1948, however, the German economy had begun to rebound thanks to the Marshal Plan and proactive help from the victors of the war to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Europe. By the 1950s and 1960s, one speaks of the "economic miracle" of Germany as it became the leading industrialized economy in Europe and one of the top 10 economies in the world (ever since).
Keep time frames in mind when making the comparison. Also note the heavy investment of foreign nations.
Rainbow 6 Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #67 on: December 17, 2008, 01:31:09 AM »
I agree with what you say above, my question would be which of the 5 other successor states would invest in the Terran Republic?
Or would the situation be the same as in Britian after WWII? Where there was little to no foreign investment?
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #68 on: December 17, 2008, 09:13:52 AM »
Quote from: Rainbow 6 on December 17, 2008, 01:31:09 AM
I agree with what you say above, my question would be which of the 5 other successor states would invest in the Terran Republic?
Or would the situation be the same as in Britian after WWII? Where there was little to no foreign investment?
Countries are greedy. There are no altruistic nations, just people. Even the Terran Hegemony was looking out for numero uno when it formed the Star League. Same rules apply.
If given the opportunity I'm sure the Great Houses would jump at the opportunity to "invest" in rebuilding the Terran Hegemony, but only if it served their needs.
Ice Hellion Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #69 on: December 17, 2008, 04:00:51 PM »
Quote from: Knightmare on December 17, 2008, 09:13:52 AM
If given the opportunity I'm sure the Great Houses would jump at the opportunity to "invest" in rebuilding the Terran Hegemony, but only if it served their needs.
Which is to increase their supremacy, be it via more resources if they need them, more money through high interest rates, more advanced technologies...
CJvR Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #70 on: December 17, 2008, 04:38:56 PM »
Quote from: Knightmare
By 1948, however, the German economy had begun to rebound thanks to the Marshal Plan and proactive help from the victors of the war to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Europe.
Yeah but the currency reform and the Marshall plan only boosted the economy, they did not restore it from scratch. Even with the occupation armies looting industry and deliberatly preventing trade and humanitarian aid the German economy was still limping along at about 1/3 of the pre-war levels.
Although the TR economy was to large extent the economy of a colonial empire it still had huge domestic markets and resources.
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #71 on: December 17, 2008, 04:59:31 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 17, 2008, 04:38:56 PM
Yeah but the currency reform and the Marshall plan only boosted the economy, they did not restore it from scratch. Even with the occupation armies looting industry and deliberately preventing trade and humanitarian aid the German economy was still limping along at about 1/3 of the pre-war levels.
The analogy only goes so far, but...If you consider every town in Germany a distinct entity then yes, it did restore it from scratch. Isolated from one another and many towns would have starved and died out without aid from another. Same rules apply in the Terran Hegemony. The point is that without foreign aid Germany would have taken years, made even decades to recover and with the Soviets at the border how long would it have been before they took control. As a viable nation without foreign aid, defeated Germany ranked lower than Greenland. Cheesy
Quote from: CJvR on December 17, 2008, 04:38:56 PM
Although the TH economy was to large extent the economy of a colonial empire it still had huge domestic markets and resources.
It did have a domestic market, but it was stripped of its wealth by an occupier. Prior to liberation Amaris didn't just destroy or redirect manufacturing capabilities, he siphoned the personal wealth of the entire Hegemony. So redistribution of the wealth accumulated by Amaris will be necessary for civilians to have any sort of purchasing power. You can not get blood from a stone, nor capital where no capital remains. With your domestic consumers in ruins it'll take foreign markets and investment to provide a profitable means to produce. Bear in mind that contrary to German manufacturers, for the most part, Hegemony companies did not collaborate as a matter of course & were nationalized with loyal Republicans or destroyed outright. As poorly as the Hegemony's military market suffered, the civilian markets suffered worse.
And the Hegemony does not have huge resources at its disposal. The whole purpose in creating the Star League's integrated economy, and placing the Hegemony as the Inner Sphere's manufacturing center was because the nation was beginning to suffer from acute resource shortages prior to the Reunification War. The Hegemony's super-charged economy required a steady stream of natural resources to remain prosperous, which the unfortunate Hegemony lacked thanks to the nation-locked nature of the nation.
Sure there are probably underdeveloped resources lying about. After all, planets are rather large places. But these resources are either difficult or unprofitable to cultivate. Otherwise the Hegemony would have invested in their retrieval rather than the Star League "Hail Mary."
The Post-Coup Terran Hegemony is going to be in the same dire need of resources as Ian Cameron's Hegemony prior to the Reunification War, but without the benefit of being a nation untouched by Amaris, or an Age of War economy.
CJvR Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #72 on: December 17, 2008, 06:07:29 PM »
Quote from: Knightmare
Same rules apply in the Terran Hegemony. The point is that without foreign aid Germany would have taken years, made even decades to recover and with the Soviets at the border how long would it have been before they took control. As a viable nation without foreign aid, defeated Germany ranked lower than Greenland.
Well if it had been a vacuum yes, but it wasn't now was it? Hell even the rubble of Germany's bombed cities was worth more than Greenland! Why would the TR worlds be isolated from each other? JS didn't become an endangered species until SW1.
TR domestic resources might be unprofitable to exploit under the SL economy, but things have changed. Also dont exaggerate the devastation of the TH. Keid, Oliver, Terra was not seriously damaged in the war and quite frankly with only 40 divisions or so the amount of damage and disruption Amaris could cause would be limited.
Knightmare Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #73 on: December 17, 2008, 10:25:13 PM »
Quote from: CJvR on December 17, 2008, 06:07:29 PM
Well if it had been a vacuum yes, but it wasn't now was it? Hell even the rubble of Germany's bombed cities was worth more than Greenland! Why would the TR worlds be isolated from each other? JS didn't become an endangered species until SW1.
The point of the Germany comparison was to create food for thought. The proverbial "what if?" The bottom line CJvR, without major foreign investment the Terran Hegemony ceases to function as a viable nation within the alloted time between the Liberation and the Succession War. Sure the Successor States have JumpShips, but why are they heading to the Hegemony? Answer: They're only going if it benefits themselves, not the Hegemony.
Quote from: CJvR on December 17, 2008, 06:07:29 PM
TR domestic resources might be unprofitable to exploit under the SL economy, but things have changed. Also don't exaggerate the devastation of the TH. Keid, Oliver, Terra was not seriously damaged in the war and quite frankly with only 40 divisions or so the amount of damage and disruption Amaris could cause would be limited.
The Hegemony's resources were unprofitable to exploit BEFORE the Star League was created, or the integrated economic system that it spawned. And I'm not over exaggerating the damage done by Amaris. For every world like Thorin, which lost its primary industries and value as opposed to its ecology, there's a world like Bryant. 40 Divisions worth of troops doesn't seem much, but who needs soldiers when you can simply drop a nuke, or chemical weapon? Amaris was well documented in dropping a nuke just to wipe out a small SLDF garrison. So saying the damage wrought by 40 Division couldn't be catastrophic is a major assumption in the nuclear age.
Takiro Re: Terran Republic Resource Policy « Reply #74 on: December 17, 2008, 11:05:31 PM »
Damage to the Hegemony was extensive yes but could have been much worse. Project Phoenix (Fanbook 2) documents the level of destruction and the rebuilding efforts of the Republic. Terran casualities were fairly limited. However the inhuman acts of the Usurper (Throne and Vatican Massacres for example) blew this up so to speak. After the Coup there was a large Exodus, larger than Kerenskys actually. Billions of Terrans left the Hegemony for the Successor States. Property destruction and industrial devastation was likely more severe but repairable.
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