If Minoru isn't killed then it's very likely that he secures the DCMS' grip on Robinson, Fairfax and Markeson Operational Areas and that New Avalon falls to the DCMS, led by Jinjiro. They might at this point accept terms.
I can't see the members of House Davion not fighting ferociously for New Avalon, which suggests heavy casualties among them, quite possibly killing off John or his immediate heirs (or both).
At this point, with the Federated Suns missing much of its industry and politically destablized it's likely that Minoru would want to move on. The big threat posed by the FedSuns has been destroyed, and although weakened by the campaign, the DCMS should still be enough in his eyes, to take on the Lyran Commonwealth (which he earlier decided was weak enough it could be dealt with later), or secure a grip on the former Terran Hegemony worlds (arguably a better investment).
The Capellans had certainly been interested in a deal (and had retaken all the Chesterton worlds except Chesterton itself). However Minoru's response had been that all he was interested in was them kissing his boots so that went nowhere. No doubt under these circumstances the Capellans would manage to take Chesterton.
I could see the DCMS doing less well than expected. The Lyrans have had a relatively good 1SW by this point since they were mostly fighting the Mariks (who were distracted fighting the Capellans) and if any state could be said to be less maimed by the incessent raids on their factories it was the Lyrans. Against a weary and ground down DCMS (who lost the heart of their fleet at Cholame), the gains against the Lyrans might not be huge before everyone has to accept that they're too battered to keep going and the 1SW winds down.
Now the 2SW could be another matter...
