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Author Topic: Absent the Exodus  (Read 7893 times)

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drakensis

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Absent the Exodus
« on: April 20, 2014, 03:05:20 AM »

A thought that crossed my mind yesterday: what if there was no Exodus and the SLDF collapsed, with its soldiers and equipment falling into the hands of the House Lords (and others).

That's quite a bit of force, albeit scattered to the winds. 32 BattleMech Divisions, 76 Infantry Divisions, 63 independent regiments and 402 warships. Breaking down the ground units into regiments for simplicity I ran some admittedly arbitrary percentages to divide them up and see how it affects the military power (compared to the 2765 numbers, doubled to reflect the 2780s numbers that we don't have exact figures for).

The AFFS gains more than 80 'Mech regiments and almost 70 warships, adding about 37% to their army and 68% to their navy. The CCAF do almost as well with over 70 'Mech regiments and 60 warships, for a 39% army and 85% naval increase. They're the big winners, gaining both numbers and (in the case of the AFFS, expertise) as the result of their excellent negotiators and relatively good reputations.

The other 3 house militiaries don't do as well, getting 60 or so Mech regiments and 50 warships (LCAF does best, followed by FWLM and DCMS). Proportionately this comes to army gains of 37% 31% and 25%, navy gains of 46%, 56% and 62%. In particular a relatively high fraction of the Combine's recruits will likely stay mercenary rather than joining the DCMS fully (although Minoru might try to organise them into his own SLDF-in-name-only)

The periphery gets a drift of units - 30-40 Mech units joining up with their militaries or going warlord/pirate in the borders or the former RWR. A handy bit of reinforcement for them but not really affecting the strategic situation.

And then there's the units that'll hang with Jerome Blake and whatever's left of the League/Hegemony apparatus until the bitter end: allowing for those he'd have gained even with the Exodus, this could top 100 regiments of Mechs and 80 warships meaning that - for better or for worse - Blake has an army the House Lords can't ignore...

Where would you see this as going?
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Takiro

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2014, 07:01:27 AM »

Big question for me is what happened to Kerensky? Is he killed in the Liberation? Say Stefan Amaris is bent on complete destruction with the final assault coming. He walks out of his palace towards Kerensky as in canon but instead of a pistol he has a dead man's switch which he triggers denoting a nuclear device. Something small say that powered his palace. Point is he, Kerensky and DeChevalier are all dead. Does command of the SLDF collapse thereafter? I say they go nuts and finish the job killing every RimJob they can find. Earth is probably worse of in the end as more destruction occurs with longer and more brutal fighting occurring. Without effective leadership and Earth in ruins it maybe plausible that even the Royal units of the SLDF give up on the Hegemony as you suggest. Don't forget the SLDF controlled the Rim Worlds and vengeful commands could return their to establish their new homes or revenge centers. I'll post a link to our previous no exodus discussion where I discussed unit breakdowns.

http://www.ourbattletech.com/forum/parallel-universes/kerensky-remains-no-exodus/

If leadership did remain in the Royals like Kerensky, DeChevalier or some other famous Admiral/General I think there would be a fight over the Hegemony with some new military government rising to liberate its worlds. Also with all these extra units and knowledge of where the SLDF kept stuff more available there would be some crazy fights over stuff. Ruins of Gabriel say along with other Star League caches. Terra also may become a more fought over prize with New Earth for its massive volumes of Star League tech.
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drakensis

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2014, 03:25:56 PM »

My thinking was that after the Star League Council disbands but before the Exodus is ordered, Kerensky simply dies. Decades of heavy stress are simply too much for him. For whatever reason - I'm leaning to a public argument between Kerensky and the almost equally stressed DeChavilier just before the former dies, the SLDF can't agree on a successor - and the Star League Council certainly won't.

Amaris using a nuke to decapitate the forces storming Amaris' final redoubt sounds plausible though. Kerensky and DeChavilier were in the lead so that's a double kill.


Royal units mostly remain in the Hegemony, but most others take offers - bribes basically - to go mercenary or outright join House militaries.

Some units would go empire-build in what's left of the RWR after the Lyrans snatched 70 worlds. Others go to the periphery states either because they have a significant number of personnel from there (uncertain welcome or not) or because they want to carve out private domains there.

Jerome Blake has a reasonable chance of getting most of the Royals under his command: he's in charge of the one remaining SL institution and by default running the Hegemony's reconstruction. He may even feel he's got a good chance of holding the Hegemony together under his rule.
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Dragon Cat

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2014, 06:33:21 PM »

One thing this assumes the SLDF splits up "peacefully"

the Star League/Hegemony/SLDF collapsing could actually be a Succession War type of event all on its own.  The Succession States may pick up the pieces but the SLDF could have ripped itself apart as various factions tried to convince various units to jump ship one way or another.  I could be a civil war like no other, a great rearing Black Hole in the centre of the Inner Sphere as the Hegemony literally burns itself out.

Or you could have the units splitting to the five winds and an even deadlier First Succession War...

Regardless I think the SLDF sticking around would have been a bad thing for everyone included - although the little Clan experiment doesn't seem to have paid off either in the long run  :'(
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My stuff, and my AU timeline follow link and enjoy

http://www.ourbattletech.com/forum/dragon-cat-collection/

The original CBT thread
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Really, as long as there is an unbroken line of people calling themselves "Clan Nova Cat," it doesn't really matter to me if they're still using Iron Wombs or not. They may be dead as a faction, but as a people they still exist. It's not uncommon in the real world, after all.

drakensis

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2014, 02:36:21 AM »

One thing this assumes the SLDF splits up "peacefully"

the Star League/Hegemony/SLDF collapsing could actually be a Succession War type of event all on its own.  The Succession States may pick up the pieces but the SLDF could have ripped itself apart as various factions tried to convince various units to jump ship one way or another.  I could be a civil war like no other, a great rearing Black Hole in the centre of the Inner Sphere as the Hegemony literally burns itself out.

Or you could have the units splitting to the five winds and an even deadlier First Succession War...
I could see that happening - something approximating the Pentagon Civil War. Of course, that sort of thing would tend to suck in the Council Lords, so it'd more or less lead to the First Succession War anyway, but perhaps in a more intense fashion than IOTL.

And the chances are that a number of divisions and regiments would tear themselves apart. Potentially a very interesting situation.

Thanks. Excellent point.

Regardless I think the SLDF sticking around would have been a bad thing for everyone included - although the little Clan experiment doesn't seem to have paid off either in the long run  :'(
It's a decision where least-bad choices are a matter of perspective. I'm sure leaders in this era would, if they knew if them, consider the Clans a small problem.
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Ice Hellion

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2014, 02:46:24 PM »

One thing this assumes the SLDF splits up "peacefully"

the Star League/Hegemony/SLDF collapsing could actually be a Succession War type of event all on its own.  The Succession States may pick up the pieces but the SLDF could have ripped itself apart as various factions tried to convince various units to jump ship one way or another.  I could be a civil war like no other, a great rearing Black Hole in the centre of the Inner Sphere as the Hegemony literally burns itself out.

 8)
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

drakensis

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2014, 03:40:36 AM »

Okay, so here's an early draft for a timeline. Thanks due to those above.



2779   29 Sep   Having secured control of Unity City, the SLDF moves to secure the Imperial City, hidden in Central Canada. Kerensky himself leads the attack on the palace gates. With his last soldiers surrendering, Stefan Amaris finally emerges from his apartment, holding the same pistol he used to kill Richard Cameron. Placing the muzzle against his head he pulls the trigger - and the remote attachment linked to nuclear warheads buried beneath the complex. Amaris, Kerensky, DeChavilier and a host of other SLDF leaders vanish in sea of nuclear explosions that consumes entire brigades of BattleMechs.

2779   30 Sep   Admiral Joan Brandt takes provisional command of the SLDF.

2780   4 Jul   Having convened on Terra, the Star League Council appoint Jerome Blake as Minister of Communications. Admiral Brandt, exhausted, formally lays down command of the SLDF and retires so that they can appoint a new Commanding General. Debate on this, and the election of a new Minister of the BSLA and of course of a new First Star Lord, begins.

2780   19 Jul   A confrontation between SLDF soldiers frustrated at the Council's slowness and captive RWA soldiers explodes into violence. SLDF soldiers sent to restore order fracture between those trying to separate the groups and those that pour fire into the rioting prisoners. The breakdown in SLDF discipline also exposes a fracture between hardliners and moderates in their ranks.

2780   23 Jul   On the proposal of Barbara Liao, the SL Council votes to handover the captive RWA soldiers - now more than seven thousand fewer in number - into the custody of the armed forces of the Member-States. Ostensibly this is so the SLDF can focus on the remaining Amaris hold-outs in the Hegemony, but in practise the new guards are effectively recruiters and Rim Worlds veterans are quickly disappearing onto secure transports out of the Hegemony.

2780   26 Jul   Seeing the SL resolution as a sign that the Lords are nearing some consensus fourteen SLDF Corps commanders seek an audience and request the appointment of new Commanding General to oversee the remaining operations of the campaign to liberate the Hegemony and to help restore order - as it stands the broken chain of command mean that they can't carry out the proper disciplinary procedures for the massacre of the prisoners. It becomes apparent the Council are fractured on who should replace Kerensky with Minoru Kurita even being so bold as to state he wishes to bring in an officer of the DCMS.

2780   2 Aug   Recruiters from the individual Council Lords begin approaching SLDF officers for their supprt in the appointment of their lords and masters to the seat of First Lord.

2780   10 Oct   With fractures forming in the informal High Command of Army Commanders and Department Heads that is leading the SLDF, a delegation visit Joan Brandt on New Earth asking her to return to office as Commanding General. She declines.

2780   17 Nov   With the sponsorship of Kenyon Marik, Patrick Scoffins - commander of the Amaris Empire Armed Forces and now liberated - begins forming up new regiments to establish a new Rim Republic as a province of the Free Worlds League.

2780   26 Dec   On the fourteenth anniversary of the Amaris Coup, forty-nine regiments of Royal Command declare that they're transferring their loyalties from the SLDF to a revived Hegemony Armed Forces and offer Jerome Blake the title of Director-General.

2780   27 Dec   Kenyon Marik orders the nearest available SLDF divisions to put down the mutiny. The SLDF officers balk until John Davion and Robert Steiner confirm the order (Minoru Kurita adds his consent later, Barbara Liao remains silent on the matter).

2781   3 Jan   Additional Royal regiments move to support their brethern against the SLDF regulars, expanding the scope of the conflict. Minoru Kurita departs Terra in secret.

2781   7 Jan   Barbara Liao orders seven Division commanders she considers 'reliable' to consolidate their forces along the Hegemony-Confederation border and departs Terra accompanied by a squadron of six SLDF warships including one of their precious Newgrange yardships.  The fracturing of the SLDF becomes public.

2781   8 Jan   John Davion and Kenyon Marik depart Terra.

2781   19 Jan   Elements of the new Hegemony Armed Forces manage to launch a suprise attack on the SLDF High Command, their advanced BattleMechs punching through to devestate the command centre. Robert Steiner, visiting the command centre, is killed in the crossfire.

2781   23 Jan   Herve and Nigel Polczyk escape custody of a LCAF-run prison camp at the head of a substantial number of hold-outs. They run headlong into an SLDF regiment with a large minority of recruits from the Rim Worlds who shelter them.

2781   14 Feb   SLDF 'loyalists' aboard SLS James McKenna carry out an orbital bombardment of Jerome Blake's HQ at Hilton Head even though the Minister of Communications has been careful not to declare himself. The battleship is shortly engaged by the battlecruiser SLS Admiral Gerda Cameron and battleship SLS Prinz Eugen but manages to break away and reach a jump-point.

2781   21 Mar   Having won over a number of key officers, the Polcyzk brothers lead a flotilla away from Terra, carrying a ragtag of regiments and several freighters loaded with supplies on towards their goal of recovering the outer reaches of the Rim Republic for themselves as a new home.
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Gabriel

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2014, 05:16:22 AM »

Hmm very interesting
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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2014, 12:03:04 PM »

Good timeline, I look forwards to seeing more.
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Takiro

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2014, 07:32:44 PM »

Not too shabby but I'd include something about fighting continuing on Earth for a bit longer than canon. Such as the last Imperial troops are savagely wiped out in the South Pacific somewhere.

Are you thinking of writing a few short novel type pieces Drak? That would really kick ass! ;)
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Ice Hellion

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2014, 06:09:20 AM »

I only have a slight problem: as there is a High Command, which was responsible for control of the entire SLDF and presided over by the Commanding General or Admiral, there would be somone to issue orders to the SLDF.
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

drakensis

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2014, 03:02:51 AM »

I'll need to develop that.

The High Command at this point (in this scenario) are the staff positions (Medical Command, JAG Command, Communications Command, etc.) Elements such as the Regular Army Command have effectively been shut down for the duration of the Civil War to streamline control (Kerensky was big on this sort of policy) and free up officers for frontline service. As a result there's no real central strategy or goal being sent and co-ordination between various arms is declining.

The Army Commanders are collectively running things but there's a lot of strong personalities with differing opinions and when they disagree there's no authority to bring them all into one line.
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Takiro

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2014, 08:17:08 AM »

Well I'd start with a chapter with Amaris killing everyone from his point of view. As crazy as all hell by this point. Screaming at Kerensky. Absolutely freaking out. "I saved the Star League from itself. Richard was a complete idiot. The House Lords are self absorbed morons. Humanity was doomed. We could have accomplished so much but no. Your order never had any place for me. You stubborn fool. You've destroyed the Star League! You've applied your once great force reckless reducing it to the size of a House military. But you don't realize that. You sit there in that BattleMech and look down at me. You think you won?! You've won nothing!!! Pulling the pistol from his robe pointing at the Orion. Bang your dead." Nukes go off killing everyone.

I'd agree with you that the House Lords would appoint Army Group Commanders maybe with the assistance of the Admiral who would have the ultimate power over the SLDF. They'd send the SLDF back to their garrison stations in the InnerSphere. Perhaps some reorganization could be done based on needs and preferences of units and their commanders. For example the 3rd RCT returns to its station in Rasalhague cause thats where it wants to be.
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Ice Hellion

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2014, 03:00:20 PM »

Elements such as the Regular Army Command have effectively been shut down for the duration of the Civil War to streamline control (Kerensky was big on this sort of policy) and free up officers for frontline service. As a result there's no real central strategy or goal being sent and co-ordination between various arms is declining.

Hard to believe as HQ with their different officers have been around for a long time and have their use ad no one can control and see everything.
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

drakensis

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Re: Absent the Exodus
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2014, 04:12:10 AM »

Elements such as the Regular Army Command have effectively been shut down for the duration of the Civil War to streamline control (Kerensky was big on this sort of policy) and free up officers for frontline service. As a result there's no real central strategy or goal being sent and co-ordination between various arms is declining.

Hard to believe as HQ with their different officers have been around for a long time and have their use ad no one can control and see everything.

Good point. As an alternative what if the SL Council appointed a weak Commanding General, who they figure they can at least prevent from doing anything effective, which leads to various leaders ignoring or working around him, eroding the authority of the office?
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