More thoughts on this topic I had just last month.
As I attempted to layout in the very briefest of blurbs what happens if Focht is killed confronting Waterly rather than what happened in canon? Either a well-placed ROM assassin, bodyguard, or perhaps even the Primus herself secretly armed with a weapon dispatches the Precentor Martial. What happens?
Focht the Villian and the Void – Waterly pins all the bad press from Operation Scorpion on Focht, apostates like Mori, and other heretics within ComStar. However, the mere death of the Precentor Martial is enough without the disgrace to call into question the Truce. Not only would the Crusaders call to abrogate the agreement be bolstered but Wardens like Ulric would likely be angered by the death of an opponent they respected and suspect did not actually betray them. So, while Waterly maybe able to spin doctor herself clean of any negative consequences within the Order from Scorpion the death of Focht both physically and publicly may ensure the Clan invasion continues immediately. With the ComGuards largely remaining in the Free Rasalhague Republic this could mean hostilities resume for that force still battered from Tukayyid and likewise the Clans.
End of the Interdiction – Remember as a consequence of Operation Scorpion most of the InnerSphere powers seized the HPG Network. Now the Free Worlds League and Capellan Confederation could probably get their stuff turned back on but what about the Federated Commonwealth and the Draconis Combine?? No doubt one key part of turning the lights back on would be the return of any wanted ComStar personnel. A renewed Clan push in the wake of this likely gives all sides reason to compromise if only to try and halt the juggernaut once more. Would the Steiner-Davions and/or the Kuritas even trust Waterly at this point given their inside knowledge of what really happened.
The Master – how does the Master and Primus Waterly interact following these events? Obviously I see him and the Blakist of canon being supporters of the Primus but do they disclose themselves to her or do they remain secret? In any event I see a still largely united ComStar conducting a purge in search of all those who betrayed them.
The Swords of Focht – while a number of Techs would no doubt escape or try to escape a new ROM purge the establishment of a rival HPG company could be a tall order. So a secular Word of Blake led by Mori for example would likely be unlikely because while they have the Draconis Combine and the Federated Commonwealth to take them in they probably lack sufficient numbers to set up a fully functioning counter operation to ComStar. However, I do see a large independent (mercenary) group of former ComGuards setting up operations.
Renewed Clan Invasion
Wave 6 (June 4, 3052 - Retribution)
Following the death of Focht
Strikes down on the remnants of the Free Rasalhague Republic
Tukayyid, Ueda, Dehgolan, and Grumium attacked by Wolf
Karbala, Al, Hillah, Orestes, Meachem, and Fatima attacked by Jade Falcon
Meilen, Keisen, Najha, and Pilkhua attacked by Ghost Bear
Tomans, Rasalgethi, Fort Loudon, Kelenfold, and Menkent attacked by Steel Viper
Tanh Linh, Baruun Urt, and McAlister attacked by Smoke Jaguar (Delta Galaxy)
Dumaring, Babuyan, and Odabasi attacked by Nova Cat
Wave 7 (January 2, 3053, Revival Expansion, follows a tactical pause)
Addition of the Home Clans
Their addition to two additional flanking corridors (Epsilon and Zeta)
Additional Flankers (Revival Trials next up)
Blood Spirit 1-2 Zeta (Draconis Combine)
Coyote 1-2 Epsilon (Federated Commonwealth)
Fire Mandrill 1-2 Zeta (Draconis Combine)
Goliath Scorpion 1-2 Epsilon (Federated Commonwealth)
Raiding Clans (Revival Trials lowest combat performers)
Burrock 0-2
Ice Hellion 0-2
Hell’s Horses 0-2
Reserve Clans
Diamond Shark Declines advancement
Star Adder
Snow Raven
Cloud Cobra
