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Author Topic: What If: An Early Peace  (Read 19582 times)

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Takiro

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What If: An Early Peace
« on: October 11, 2010, 06:45:47 PM »

The year is 2864 and the Successor States meet on New Earth to discuss the possibilities of peace. Despite the discord and acrimony created by the 1st and 2nd Succession Wars the delegates somehow manage to reach a historic peace agreement. The New Earth Accords which are reviewed and ratified by the House Lords establish a new status quo throughout the InnerSphere.

Aside from token territorial concessions made to the Capellans in order to secure their agreement the Lords of the InnerSphere agree to renounce their claims to the Star Throne once and for all. Provisions governing the conduct of war which include an updated Ares Conventions are also laid down by this document. The most significant of these are safeguards for Jumpships which are now protected assets under the Accords.

Business leaders and merchants who were among the chief proponents of the treaty thrive in the new environment. A new age of interstellar commerce led by the Lyran Commonwealth and the Free Worlds League sweeps the InnerSphere. With the Star League officially dissolved never to be seen again each nation embraces its sovereignty and rebuilds.

So what happens? Is it a much different universe from the canon 3rd Succession War? The lack of a general war and the sudden drop in destruction would make ComStar unhappy I imagine. Would the Houses unite to deal with them and nationalize the HPG network or would ComStar try to manage the peace? What happens when the Clans arrive? The InnerSphere might be better off technically and economically but their warfare may be ritualized like the Clans while their militaries would be inexperienced in large scale warfare.
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Gabriel

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2010, 01:01:34 AM »

Interesting Very Interesting. For Comstar It would be a huge change especially for the fanatic Toyama. His wetware would seize up and since the Comguard had not be formed yet and Rom had just finished Operation Holy Shroud in 2843. His options might be limited it all depends on what can be done. Also if the Comguard is not formed and the Clans do arrive who would fight them? Lastly the Clans might have arrived earlier than 3050.
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Ice Hellion

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2010, 02:28:37 PM »

Why would they stop waging wars?
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

Hessian

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2010, 02:32:28 PM »

Well I think the results could be interesting.

But it all depends on how much infrastructure, scientific knowledge and military hardware is already destroyed and lost during the first and second succession wars.
(BTW, are there any canon references how much technological infrastructure and scientific knowledge was destroyed during each of the succession wars?)

If say 95% of all losses in the above mentioned fields occurred during the first and second succession wars, then I think that the rebuilding would start from roughly the same level as in the canon setting. The advantage would be that the rebuilding starts earlier but would occur in roughly the same fashion.
But...
If only two thirds of all economic, military and scientific losses occurrec during the first and second succession wars this would mean that the rebuilding not only starts earlier than in the canon setting, but also from a higher level.
This could have really drastic consequences.

Regarding ComStar I too think that they would not be pleased. But Operation Holy Shroud benefitted from the fact that the Successor states were at war against each other. I have my doubts if ComStar could be as successful against an Inner Sphere at peace.
Which makes me wonder if this would not prompt an even earlier founding of the ComGuards, since ComStar might feel that without the House Lords warring against each other Terra itself might become a target for an adventurous House Lord. Personally I doubt that ComStar would not field an army of its own(the organization is just too paranoid not to field a military force in my opinion).


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Blacknova

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2010, 05:43:12 PM »

A century and a half of industrial reconstruction in and of itself would be a massive game changer when the Clans returned, ritualised Areas Convention style Warfare or not.  Look at the reunification war, the IS threw of the gloves nice and quick and used sheer numbers and industrial power to overwhelm the Periphery.  With 150 years of tech recovery as well, the Clans would have a nasty time of it.

Additionally, I think ComStar would completly flip, but could do little really, with ROM young and no Com Guards, I think thier actions would be hard to determine.  They would be seething, but could do little apart from trying to get states to breach the conventions. They might  be asked to become arbiters of the fights and the ComGuards could form from this role as a peace keeping force, much like what happened with the Terran Hegemony.

The big winner and big looser would likly be the Lyrans.  They would benifit most from lower level war and general re-industrialisation, but would suffer from a new war of movement and skill.  Additionally, the Mariks could, if they kept it together, become the dominant power.
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Ice Hellion

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2010, 03:04:46 PM »

but would suffer from a new war of movement and skill.

This is assuming they can't adapt to changing conditions?
If they are the ones benefiting the most from re industrialisation, they are likely to get more units earlier than the others and impose their terms on how to fight wars.
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

Blacknova

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2010, 12:27:26 AM »

True, but the recurrent theme of LCAF history is the mass of bumbeling metal, at least until the got the FIAT treatment from 3028-3050.  Still, as a believer in the power of massed industry to swarm the other guys under, finesse is not such a nessesity.
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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2010, 02:09:55 PM »

But you can believe in heavy metal and mobility at the same time or use heavy metal to force your opponent to react as you want.  8)
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

Blacknova

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2010, 05:40:22 PM »

True, but the Steiners seem to use the Soviet model when it comes to war.
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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2010, 05:36:23 PM »

True, but the Steiners seem to use the Soviet model when it comes to war.

Who won WWII?   :P
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

Blacknova

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2010, 02:04:30 AM »

Heavy Industry - Lots of it
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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2010, 02:29:09 PM »

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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5

Hammer6R

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2010, 10:10:03 PM »

Ah, but that only works when the other guy is bone-stupid.....
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Knightmare

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2010, 02:45:13 PM »

Mostly you'd simply see a renewal of the old Age of War - just Mark II this time round.

The game changer (at least regarding the Clans) would be the year of peace rather than the type of peace proper.

So say, this peace took place right after the 1st Succession War then it's very likely the Clans would be in a terrible position no matter when they finally decide to invade. Not only is additional infrastructure saved from the predations of war and time, but economically, the Successor States are less hostile. Comstar would likely maintain Terra & the HPG network, but be far less religious and militant. Toyoma's changes wouldn't take hold and his successors would have a hard time (if they opted to maintain the pseudo-religious trappings) recruiting manpower. Remember, Comstar recruiters preyed on the anxieties and realities of the Succession Wars. If things improve and total warfare ceases, Comstar's recruitment dissolves correspondingly. I'd put money on Comstar going completely corporate, but build a corporate model resembling Shadowrun's Aztechnology, i.e., plenty of skeletons in the closet and mighty good at public branding/propaganda.

Still, even if said peace took place after the Second Succession War, the Great Houses still benefit from another 150+ years of their own brand of ritualized warfare. Technology, commerce, everything the Third Succession War helped stagnate would benefit. Again, Comstar would suffer the worst if it maintained their canon model, which again, I doubt would happen. Within a certain period of time it's not a stretch to imagine another Second Star League forming much like it did after the Clan invasion - albeit this time without the need for or reason of a common enemy.

Why? Because if the Great Houses can sign a peace accord on their own without a common foe bearing down their neck, it's not implausible said Houses could also come to the same Second Star League agreement. If you're willing to deal for no apparent reason other than common sense, then you're probably likely to deal in the same fashion again.

You should also take into account time and generation. In 2864 there were probably still people (albeit advanced in age) who still remembered living in the Star League or during the waning years of Sphere-wide peace. If a peace occurred in 2864 there are still people alive who could call upon the actual memory of cooperation and its benefits. If their leaders were willing to play ball, so would they.

In 3058, no said generation exists. Cooperation without coercion (in the form of the Clans) was impossible. Those people would have 250 years of constant warfare, with successive younger average generations to correspond with the declining technology. (Take Terra for example. Even in 3078, Terran don't reach middle age until well past their 60s. Medical technology and health means Terran generations are further apart since women care bear children at a more advanced age. The same can't be said for a place like Philadelphia or Helm, where successive generations were born closer and closer to each other - say, 20 years apart rather than 60+.) If a college or technical school provides a form of institutional memory, what kind of cultural memory is passed from parent to child?

It's a rhetorical question of course, but highlights the idea that some of the ingrained stigmas of the Succession Wars may not be fully solidified just yet.

Again, operating under the assumption of the Alt-U you've created here, it is possible.

   

 

 
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Ice Hellion

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Re: What If: An Early Peace
« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2010, 03:24:29 PM »

I will have to look at Aztech.
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"In turn they tested each Clan namesake
in trial against the Ice Hellion's mettle.
Each chased the Ice Hellion, hunting it down.
All failed to match the predator's speed and grace.
Khan Cage smiled and said, "And that is how we shall be."

The Remembrance (Clan Ice Hellion) Passage 5, Verse 3, Lines 1 - 5
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